Hurricane Nate in Gulf

[tombo82685]

With the coming deep trough in the central US and WAR to our east there is an alley leading right towards the region for whatever happens with 90l. Euro had a cat 1 making landfall in FL

[Chubbs]

Hopefully will end our dry spell.

[tombo82685]

thats a hideous airmass on the euro. AC will be back on if thats correct. 

[cbelke]

Too early to speculate on the timing of the rain yet?

[tombo82685]

15 minutes ago, cbelke said:

Too early to speculate on the timing of the rain yet?

I'd say late sunday-tues period

[cbelke]

1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

I'd say late sunday-tues period

I arrive back at ABE at midnight on Monday. Hoping no weather delays, but hopefully nothing too bad.

[Mitchg]

My guess would be the ridging trends stronger, modeling tends to underdo the heatmizer's SE ridge. 

[tombo82685]

Increasing threat on eps and euro of some heavy rain starting to show up in sun-tues period

[Rainshadow]

12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

thats a hideous airmass on the euro. AC will be back on if thats correct. 

I am not kidding you, my neighbor's a/c was on yesterday.

[Chubbs]

90l looking healthy this am. NHC 8 AM - "a depression likely to form today"

[SalemCountyNJ]

1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

I am not kidding you, my neighbor's a/c was on yesterday.

I was talking to the guys at work this morning, all are complaining of allergies, so they have the windows closed and the AC on.  My windows have been open for days, very refreshing in the morning.  I'm sure we will have to turn the AC back on shortly...if only for a few days.

[Rainshadow]

37 minutes ago, SalemCountyNJ said:

I was talking to the guys at work this morning, all are complaining of allergies, so they have the windows closed and the AC on.  My windows have been open for days, very refreshing in the morning.  I'm sure we will have to turn the AC back on shortly...if only for a few days.

I understand the allergy part (had hay fever for 30 yearsish), but it would make more sense if his bedroom windows were closed....

[colonel_kurtz]

2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Increasing threat on eps and euro of some heavy rain starting to show up in sun-tues period

some have compared this season to 2005, locally after a bone dry torch SEPT the floodgates literally opened that OCT

A cold front absorbed the remnants of Tropical Strom Tammy & interacted with a Subtropical Low off the East Coast. On 10/7-8 PHL recorded a storm total of 6.04" which included an OCT calendar day record of 5.53" on 10/8. Also yes due to the tropical interaction dew points peaked in the low 70's before the frontal passage, remember my AC running & mud slides closing the Schuylkill Expressway.

[tombo82685]

Off the eps from last night, almost a 2" mean on them for this

 

[tombo82685]

Definitely a disagreement between euro and gfs as to where this hits. Gfs and gefs are much further west, thus heaviest rainfall further west. Euro and eps favoring eastern seaboard. Imagine it will come down to depth of trough and strength of WAR

[tombo82685]

[Mayfair]

Advisories from NHC are starting at 11am for TD16

[Chubbs]

1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Definitely a disagreement between euro and gfs as to where this hits. Gfs and gefs are much further west, thus heaviest rainfall further west. Euro and eps favoring eastern seaboard. Imagine it will come down to depth of trough and strength of WAR

From the 11AM NHC discussion on TD 16:

The GFS-based guidance seems to over-amplify the trough, which causes the
new tropical cyclone to be pulled northwestward longer than most of
the rest of the models. Consequently, this forecast is closer to the
UKMET and ECMWF models, on the right side of the model consensus,
but must be considered a low-confidence prediction at this time.

[cbelke]

Thought the Florida panhandle might be spared but looks like the Gulf Coast and the panhandle might get a Cat 1 storm? 

[tombo82685]

Looks like euro is going close to Cat 3 hurricane now pressure wise with a 966 low into FL panhandle. Even has damaging wind gusts up the whole east coast as it flies up the coast embedded in the cold front. 

[cbelke]

25 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Looks like euro is going close to Cat 3 hurricane now pressure wise with a 966 low into FL panhandle. Even has damaging wind gusts up the whole east coast as it flies up the coast embedded in the cold front. 

You're full of good news aren't you?

[Mitchg]

45 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Looks like euro is going close to Cat 3 hurricane now pressure wise with a 966 low into FL panhandle. Even has damaging wind gusts up the whole east coast as it flies up the coast embedded in the cold front. 

Thinking of the remnant low we had a few months ago which contributed toward one of the bigger severe events this year. Not going to let the damaging wind and tornado threats sneak up this time. Can't think of the date but it was more of a flood focus and ended up being a dawn squall line that spawned from the tropical low. I think it was the day with the two tornadoes in ocean county. 

[tombo82685]

3 hours ago, cbelke said:

You're full of good news aren't you?

Intensity forecasts this tropical season have been abysmal. That being said, the euro was a big time outlier with that strength

[cbelke]

2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Intensity forecasts this tropical season have been abysmal. That being said, the euro was a big time outlier with that strength

Looks like it is drifting to the West. Might not rain as much here.

[tombo82685]

3 minutes ago, cbelke said:

Looks like it is drifting to the West. Might not rain as much here.

way way way to early for that. Won't know till it gets into the gulf as to where this goes. We will most likely get rain, just depends on how much.