tombo82685 Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 With the coming deep trough in the central US and WAR to our east there is an alley leading right towards the region for whatever happens with 90l. Euro had a cat 1 making landfall in FL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 Hopefully will end our dry spell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 thats a hideous airmass on the euro. AC will be back on if thats correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted October 3, 2017 Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 Too early to speculate on the timing of the rain yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, cbelke said: Too early to speculate on the timing of the rain yet? I'd say late sunday-tues period Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: I'd say late sunday-tues period I arrive back at ABE at midnight on Monday. Hoping no weather delays, but hopefully nothing too bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 My guess would be the ridging trends stronger, modeling tends to underdo the heatmizer's SE ridge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Increasing threat on eps and euro of some heavy rain starting to show up in sun-tues period Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 12 hours ago, tombo82685 said: thats a hideous airmass on the euro. AC will be back on if thats correct. I am not kidding you, my neighbor's a/c was on yesterday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 90l looking healthy this am. NHC 8 AM - "a depression likely to form today" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Rainshadow said: I am not kidding you, my neighbor's a/c was on yesterday. I was talking to the guys at work this morning, all are complaining of allergies, so they have the windows closed and the AC on. My windows have been open for days, very refreshing in the morning. I'm sure we will have to turn the AC back on shortly...if only for a few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 37 minutes ago, SalemCountyNJ said: I was talking to the guys at work this morning, all are complaining of allergies, so they have the windows closed and the AC on. My windows have been open for days, very refreshing in the morning. I'm sure we will have to turn the AC back on shortly...if only for a few days. I understand the allergy part (had hay fever for 30 yearsish), but it would make more sense if his bedroom windows were closed.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 2 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Increasing threat on eps and euro of some heavy rain starting to show up in sun-tues period some have compared this season to 2005, locally after a bone dry torch SEPT the floodgates literally opened that OCT A cold front absorbed the remnants of Tropical Strom Tammy & interacted with a Subtropical Low off the East Coast. On 10/7-8 PHL recorded a storm total of 6.04" which included an OCT calendar day record of 5.53" on 10/8. Also yes due to the tropical interaction dew points peaked in the low 70's before the frontal passage, remember my AC running & mud slides closing the Schuylkill Expressway. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Off the eps from last night, almost a 2" mean on them for this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Definitely a disagreement between euro and gfs as to where this hits. Gfs and gefs are much further west, thus heaviest rainfall further west. Euro and eps favoring eastern seaboard. Imagine it will come down to depth of trough and strength of WAR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mayfair Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Advisories from NHC are starting at 11am for TD16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: Definitely a disagreement between euro and gfs as to where this hits. Gfs and gefs are much further west, thus heaviest rainfall further west. Euro and eps favoring eastern seaboard. Imagine it will come down to depth of trough and strength of WAR From the 11AM NHC discussion on TD 16: The GFS-based guidance seems to over-amplify the trough, which causes the new tropical cyclone to be pulled northwestward longer than most of the rest of the models. Consequently, this forecast is closer to the UKMET and ECMWF models, on the right side of the model consensus, but must be considered a low-confidence prediction at this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Thought the Florida panhandle might be spared but looks like the Gulf Coast and the panhandle might get a Cat 1 storm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 Looks like euro is going close to Cat 3 hurricane now pressure wise with a 966 low into FL panhandle. Even has damaging wind gusts up the whole east coast as it flies up the coast embedded in the cold front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 25 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Looks like euro is going close to Cat 3 hurricane now pressure wise with a 966 low into FL panhandle. Even has damaging wind gusts up the whole east coast as it flies up the coast embedded in the cold front. You're full of good news aren't you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted October 4, 2017 Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 45 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Looks like euro is going close to Cat 3 hurricane now pressure wise with a 966 low into FL panhandle. Even has damaging wind gusts up the whole east coast as it flies up the coast embedded in the cold front. Thinking of the remnant low we had a few months ago which contributed toward one of the bigger severe events this year. Not going to let the damaging wind and tornado threats sneak up this time. Can't think of the date but it was more of a flood focus and ended up being a dawn squall line that spawned from the tropical low. I think it was the day with the two tornadoes in ocean county. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2017 3 hours ago, cbelke said: You're full of good news aren't you? Intensity forecasts this tropical season have been abysmal. That being said, the euro was a big time outlier with that strength Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 2 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Intensity forecasts this tropical season have been abysmal. That being said, the euro was a big time outlier with that strength Looks like it is drifting to the West. Might not rain as much here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, cbelke said: Looks like it is drifting to the West. Might not rain as much here. way way way to early for that. Won't know till it gets into the gulf as to where this goes. We will most likely get rain, just depends on how much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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