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9/5 Slight Risk Of Severe Storms Obs


Rainshadow
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...Northeast/Middle Atlantic...

   Upper trough is forecast to dig southward across the Great Lakes/OH
   Valley into the mid South as heights fall within the base of the
   trough at latitudes as far south as the northern Gulf States late in
   the period. Latest guidance suggest the strongest mid-level flow
   should lag the surface front considerably except for portions of the
   northern Middle Atlantic into New England where deep-layer shear
   will be strong enough to support organized updrafts. Scattered
   convection is currently ongoing along the front across the OH Valley
   into upstate NY and thunderstorms may be ongoing at daybreak along
   the wind shift. While extensive clouds/precip will inhibit surface
   heating west of the Appalachians, modest low-level heating is
   expected to focus along a corridor from the lee of the Appalachians
   into southern New England by 18z which should encourage renewed
   robust updrafts along aforementioned corridor of stronger flow
   aloft. Deep southwesterly flow is expected to enhance the prospect
   for locally damaging winds with frontal convection as it propagates
   across the severe risk region and some hail may be noted with any
   embedded supercells.
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Had 0.90" and some pea sized hail as the storm rolled through Sinking Spring about 45 min ago.  Reports of some trees down but I didn't see much more than 35-40 mph gusts at my location. Still raining so will update that total later.

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