irishbri74 Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 LEts see what the GFS cooks up here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 More subtle shifts SW with Irma. Across the conus, little more energy in the trough. Close call for PR/Haiti. Not a good trend for the Bahamas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 Wouldn't shock me if models continue to play catch up with this sw track and this goes into pierto rico or Haiti and possibly weakening significantly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 The Bahamas are getting wrecked this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 LOL, 883 approaching NC 1026 high to the north, winds would be howling just from the pressure gardient Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 Lol this thing keeps getting pushed back. FL landfall getting higher % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 Lolz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Lol this thing keeps getting pushed back. FL landfall getting higher % The GFS from a few days ago wasn't trying to bring this thing in by Saturday. But that's before it took the long way down by the Bahamas. I think the euro was more on board with this timeframe. Not sure how much slower this can get?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 Candain and UKMET continue the western path into FL before turning north. Main thing today is OTS less likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 I'd give the FL landfall highest chance right now with models continuing adjusting southwest. Trough just not deep enough as of now to pick it up and out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 I'll bet Lynch an invisible dollar the euro goes into FL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 EPS is the only one holding out for a more eastern track. If 12z Euro still shows a more western track, I will be more locked into a devastating Myrtle Beach hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I'll bet Lynch an invisible dollar the euro goes into FL I'll bet the number of EPS members OTS shrinks by about half with 12z. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I'll bet Lynch an invisible dollar the euro goes into FL If you really were confident, you'd bet him a Kirkland ball. Rumor has it none of them found any ponds last week. Getting back to Irma, the trend is not good. The track forecasts as stated adjusted south; the trof exit is not any slower and if anything gfs wise slightly less deep overall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: If you really were confident, you'd bet him a Kirkland ball. Rumor has it none of them found any ponds last week. Getting back to Irma, the trend is not good. The track forecasts as stated adjusted south; the trof exit is not any slower and if anything gfs wise slightly less deep overall. Well for our backyards it's looking better. Heck with that big high over/just to our north that thing may just block Irma from bringing really any big rain here too if it hits south of NC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Well fornour backyards it's looking better. Heck with that big high over/just tonour north that thing may just block Irma from bringing really any big rain here too if it hits south of NC A met I knew who used to work at WPC was saying this was reminding him of Hugo and its sadly not trending away from that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 In the shorter term, Irma is back moving to the west, its going to have start moving southwest pretty much now to make NHC's 00z forecast point. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-jsl-short.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Rainshadow said: In the shorter term, Irma is back moving to the west, its going to have start moving southwest pretty much now to make NHC's 00z forecast point. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-jsl-short.html Did the models continue sw or were they west in terms of movement for next 6 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 Def north of the track right now and could be by a good bit if it continues west track Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: Did the models continue sw or were they west in terms of movement for next 6 hours HWRF turns slightly more sw next 6 hours HMON just a steady wsw (looks like it should be better than the HWRF at 00z) GFS steady wsw GGEM less wsw overall and should verify the best of the four at 00z (barring a sharper left turn). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 That's your clustering 9 days from now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 3, 2017 Report Share Posted September 3, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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