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Potential Tropical Storm Ten / Canadian's AL92 Observations 8/27 OBS


Rainshadow
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11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Nam going less than .1 at phl euro over an inch eps 1.5. So expect anywhere from .1-1.5 today. Granted the euro and eps seem way to wet to me. I think .25-.5 makes more sense. 

Trying to find an upstream site to see how its doing so far.  Can you see a breakdown of "how much" for BWI through 8 am this morning?  .12" thru 740 am. 

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Trying to find an upstream site to see how its doing so far.  Can you see a breakdown of "how much" for BWI through 8 am this morning?  .12" thru 740 am. 

Through 12z it had .25. Through 12z phl it has .02. So far not bad. It's after 12z and esp 18z things get heavier

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59 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Tony, the dry punch that is stuck over us is that due to ageostrophic wind flow advecting in drier air in mid levels?

If you can find me a link that shows predicted or even observed ageostrophic winds, I could maybe give you an answer.  I cant find one (or the ones I find give me blank maps).  I found a 310K isentropic map off the GFS (noam scale) and that looks like any isentropic contribution (at that temp) cuts off at PHL's latitude, doesn't get much farther north.  

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8 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

If you can find me a link that shows predicted or even observed ageostrophic winds, I could maybe give you an answer.  I cant find one (or the ones I find give me blank maps).  I found a 310K isentropic map off the GFS (noam scale) and that looks like any isentropic contribution (at that temp) cuts off at PHL's latitude, doesn't get much farther north.  

I see the dry air punch in the mid levels, but then I see alot of wind convergence and slackening in that zone too. Or is it cause the winds are coming from the NW in that zone, which is a drier wind

hrrr_2017082912_000_40.31--75.19.png

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

I see the dry air punch in the mid levels, but then I see alot of wind convergence and slackening in that zone too.

hrrr_2017082912_000_40.31--75.19.png

Without seeing a larger field, its hard to corroborate.   But you do have a high to our northeast, so some dry air has to be circulating from it into our area for now.  You have -30C TD(s) at 700 mb northeast of us.  The implication of the Euro is that this reservoir either gets drained or moves north of us later.  I see the fgen forcing kind of never gets north and west of the Delaware River today.  The reflectivity is not matching the amounts in the lower susq, so there is drying occurring below 10000' (for now).

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

Without seeing a larger field, its hard to corroborate.   But you do have a high to our northeast, so some dry air has to be circulating from it into our area for now.  You have -30C TD(s) at 700 mb northeast of us.  The implication of the Euro is that this reservoir either gets drained or moves north of us later.  I see the fgen forcing kind of never gets north and west of the Delaware River today.  The reflectivity is not matching the amounts in the lower susq, so there is drying occurring below 10000' (for now).

Yea I figured just the drain from the High to our north had a dry punch. It's almost like a CAD setup in winter where you would have low dews and sitting at 20, while Pittsburgh is 45 and rain

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea I figured just the drain from the High to our north had a dry punch. It's almost like a CAD setup in winter where you would have low dews and sitting at 20, while Pittsburgh is 45 and rain

It would be nice to have a site that has ageo flow, frontogen and qvec all in one, but the only one I know is AWIPs and that means I'd have to give up on the bananas...

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