Rainshadow Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 ...Northeast States to the OH Valley... Rich moisture (precipitable water ranging from 1.5-2.0 inches) is expected to spread to the east/northeast across the rest of the OH Valley into the Northeast States this forecast period contributing to strong destabilization, especially from the OH Valley into southern PA. Farther north into northern PA, NY to western New England, there remains some uncertainty with the degree of overall destabilization, partly due to weak mid-level lapse rates. However, stronger forcing for ascent expected across NY into New England may prove sufficient to compensate for weaker instability and support organized line segments spreading to the east as deep-layer westerly shear vectors strengthen (effective bulk shear at 35-45 kt). A linear storm mode should be predominate with damaging winds expected as deep-layer winds strengthen, including 40-50 kt at 850-700 mb, with the greatest threat occurring from northern PA into central and eastern NY. Given the deepening surface low into Quebec this afternoon, low-level winds from eastern PA to eastern NY should remained backed, enhancing low-level shear for a tornado threat (especially with any discrete storms). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 This feels like the line gets to LV and berks then croaks type of event due to poor timing. Then again there is always the 6z nam to raise false hopes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: This feels like the line gets to LV and berks then croaks type of event due to poor timing. Then again there is always the 6z nam to raise false hopes Not again??!! Well, those storms last night did give me a deluge of .08" for the storm total. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 If you go by the gfs today Barry gets to 90 in the city and tomorrow is the hottest day with low to mid 90s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Looks like south and east is getting ready to welcome back: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 2 hours ago, tombo82685 said: If you go by the gfs today Barry gets to 90 in the city and tomorrow is the hottest day with low to mid 90s EMC just discovered the issue with new GFS, forecasting boundary conditions for the wrong planet. On a more serious note, NCAR ensembles stopped posting at 14z today, so not much help. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 I can't stop Yawning over this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 looks about right to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 2 hours ago, tombo82685 said: I can't stop Yawning over this Likely going to be a mainly slow radar shift. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Didn't expect this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Didn't expect this What?! By the time the line of storms get here it will have lost a lot of their volatility. Even the models show show that. Very interesting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 16 minutes ago, cbelke said: What?! By the time the line of storms get here it will have lost a lot of their volatility. Even the models show show that. Very interesting... Yea I don't see it honestly. I could see Abe north. But this far south not buying it. Nothing is showing this line making it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Svr watch for areas north and west of city not including Delco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Svr watch for areas north and west of city not including Delco Just saw the post on Twitter from the NWS, and yours of course. New watch graphic with potential exposure? Interesting, but is it needed? May be for another thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, cbelke said: Just saw the post on Twitter from the NWS, and yours of course. New watch graphic with potential exposure? Interesting, but is it needed? May be for another thread. Tony would be the one to ask. But I would of stopped it at berks and LV. Though I wonder if we were grouped in cause that watch area would of been to small? Convection should hold on longer than usual into the night due the strong instability around. Just gonna have to watch. Then again we have the 18z nam to bring in false hopes again 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Hopeful, but not really expecting anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 32 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Tony would be the one to ask. But I would of stopped it at berks and LV. Though I wonder if we were grouped in cause that watch area would of been to small? Convection should hold on longer than usual into the night due the strong instability around. Just gonna have to watch. Then again we have the 18z nam to bring in false hopes again That is where the watch was coordinated to be placed. I tend to agree with you; excluding Chester, Montgomery, Bucks and Hunterdon counties. The NWS offices have the option to locally extend the watch to include other counties later on. We shall see what happens though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Last few hourly runs of HRRR have shown convection doing a better job getting into the Delaware Valley after 00z. 18z NAM shows this as well. 18z RGEM keeps the bulk of the activity near and north of I-78. The tendency for this stuff to make it a bit further east before croaking makes the watch box look reasonable IMO. Time will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 48 minutes ago, Parsley said: Last few hourly runs of HRRR have shown convection doing a better job getting into the Delaware Valley after 00z. 18z NAM shows this as well. 18z RGEM keeps the bulk of the activity near and north of I-78. The tendency for this stuff to make it a bit further east before croaking makes the watch box look reasonable IMO. Time will tell. Storms into this area I can see. Severe, not sure. We are probably looking at 9-10pm arrival time if not later. Not sure on how much instability will be left for these things to push severe limits. We will see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 This would definitely mean business if the arrival time was from 3-6 PM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Gross out today 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 13 minutes ago, MGorse said: This would definitely mean business if the arrival time was from 3-6 PM. Probably would of been an Enhanced day for us 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 eps actually have best rain chances during the morning into the day tomorrow for phl. Looks close to what the 12z ggem had Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Would not shock me if that line intensifies a little as it comes east to a certain point. Pretty solid instability numbers as of right now 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Surprised this is not warned by ctp. This is north of mdt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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