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8/22 Thunderstorms OBS; Highest Severe Threat North & West Of Us


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 ...Northeast States to the OH Valley...
   Rich moisture (precipitable water ranging from 1.5-2.0 inches) is
   expected to spread to the east/northeast across the rest of the OH
   Valley into the Northeast States this forecast period contributing
   to strong destabilization, especially from the OH Valley into
   southern PA.  Farther north into northern PA, NY to western New
   England, there remains some uncertainty with the degree of overall
   destabilization, partly due to weak mid-level lapse rates.  However,
   stronger forcing for ascent expected across NY into New England may
   prove sufficient to compensate for weaker instability and support
   organized line segments spreading to the east as deep-layer westerly
   shear vectors strengthen (effective bulk shear at 35-45 kt).  A
   linear storm mode should be predominate with damaging winds expected
   as deep-layer winds strengthen, including 40-50 kt at 850-700 mb,
   with the greatest threat occurring from northern PA into central and
   eastern NY.  Given the deepening surface low into Quebec this
   afternoon, low-level winds from eastern PA to eastern NY should
   remained backed, enhancing low-level shear for a tornado threat
   (especially with any discrete storms).
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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This feels like the line gets to LV and berks then croaks type of event due to poor timing. Then again there is always the 6z nam to raise false hopes

Not again??!! :facepalm:

Well, those storms last night did give me a deluge of .08" for the storm total. 

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

If you go by the gfs today Barry gets to 90 in the city and tomorrow is the hottest day with low to mid 90s

EMC just discovered the issue with new GFS, forecasting boundary conditions for the wrong planet. ;):o

PlanetVenusTA-680802775.thumb.jpg.24c4cccb5c6c83d1799e3cf966d65751.jpg

 

On a more serious note, NCAR ensembles stopped posting at 14z today, so not much help. 

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16 minutes ago, cbelke said:

What?! By the time the line of storms get here it will have lost a lot of their volatility.  Even the models show show that.

Very interesting...

 

 

Yea I don't see it honestly. I could see Abe north.  But this far south not buying it. Nothing is showing this line making it 

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Svr watch for areas north and west of city not including Delco 

Just saw the post on Twitter from the NWS, and yours of course.

New watch graphic with potential exposure? Interesting, but is it needed? May be for another thread.

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4 minutes ago, cbelke said:

Just saw the post on Twitter from the NWS, and yours of course.

New watch graphic with potential exposure? Interesting, but is it needed? May be for another thread.

Tony would be the one to ask. But I would of stopped it at berks and LV. Though I wonder if we were grouped in cause that watch area would of been to small?  Convection should hold on longer than usual into the night due the strong instability around. Just gonna have to watch. Then again we have the 18z nam to bring in false hopes again 

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32 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Tony would be the one to ask. But I would of stopped it at berks and LV. Though I wonder if we were grouped in cause that watch area would of been to small?  Convection should hold on longer than usual into the night due the strong instability around. Just gonna have to watch. Then again we have the 18z nam to bring in false hopes again 

That is where the watch was coordinated to be placed. I tend to agree with you; excluding Chester, Montgomery, Bucks and Hunterdon counties. The NWS offices have the option to locally extend the watch to include other counties later on. We shall see what happens though.

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Last few hourly runs of HRRR have shown convection doing a better job  getting into the Delaware Valley after 00z. 18z NAM shows this as well. 18z RGEM keeps the bulk of the activity near and north of I-78. 

The tendency for this stuff to make it a bit further east before croaking makes the watch box look reasonable IMO. 

Time will tell. 

inmaSIRpa_.gif

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48 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Last few hourly runs of HRRR have shown convection doing a better job  getting into the Delaware Valley after 00z. 18z NAM shows this as well. 18z RGEM keeps the bulk of the activity near and north of I-78. 

The tendency for this stuff to make it a bit further east before croaking makes the watch box look reasonable IMO. 

Time will tell. 

 

Storms into this area I can see. Severe, not sure. We are probably looking at 9-10pm arrival time if not later. Not sure on how much instability will be left for these things to push severe limits. We will see

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