Jump to content

July 22nd - 24th Slight Risk Weekend Thunderstorms & Temps Obs


Rainshadow
 Share

Recommended Posts

day2otlk_1730.thumb.gif.d30a65cc6b894aa64ec9c5d607201310.gif

...Illinois eastward to the Mid-Atlantic...
   Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the evolution of a morning
   MCS that should be located in the general vicinity of northern
   Illinois/southern Michigan at the beginning of the forecast period. 
   This activity should propagate eastward through noon and pose a
   marginal risk of damaging wind gusts during the morning hours. 
   Parts of Lower Michigan may not destabilize much in the wake of
   morning convection and attendant severe probabilities have been
   reduced in this outlook as a result.

   Later in the day, models suggest some re-intensification of the MCS
   and/or remnant boundaries from Pennsylvania westward to Indiana/Ohio
   as moderate to strong surface-based destabilization occurs within
   the undisturbed pre-convective airmass.  Deep shear profiles favor
   storm organization, with an evolution into forward-propagating
   linear segments expected into the afternoon.  Damaging wind gusts
   and large hail are likely in this region - and portions of
   Ohio/Pennsylvania may need an upgrade in later outlooks once
   finer-scale details of convective evolution become clearer. 
   Furthermore, an isolated tornado threat may evolve in Pennsylvania,
   where low-level shear parameters (although modest) become maximized
   in the early evening due to veering of flow with height.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GFS was 99 for a high today.

I think we are starting to see the egg influence the chicken,  or the tail wagging the pug.  Ground heats and raises the 925/850 temps more so than it should vs the 925/850 temps giving the opportunity of ground temps to rise.  I am going to have to just stick to the 850s again or not use a 925 after 15z.  

Capture.thumb.JPG.1dd2a3e362e369368618a097016f31d8.JPGCapture2.thumb.JPG.f6ee702c460c3dbd51395cdd32558994.JPG

 

Given the hot start I'll go with an easy 95 for a high in PHL today.  Hope my hot bias continues fwiw.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Maybe it's me just getting use to this slop, but it doesn't feel to bad out really. Nice breeze and it's not ungodly muggy out 

Humidity has dropped north and east of phl. Still soup further south.

EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PHILADELPHIA   PTSUNNY   85  67  54 E9        29.90R
NORTH PHILA    MOSUNNY   84  69  60 NE8       29.91R
BLUE BELL*     SUNNY     79  68  69 CALM      29.92S
DOYLESTOWN     SUNNY     81  65  58 NE7       29.91R
QUAKERTOWN*    SUNNY     79  66  65 NE6       29.93F
PERKASIE*      FAIR      79  64  61 N7        29.94R
POTTSTOWN      SUNNY     80  70  71 VRB6      29.93R
LANCASTER      CLOUDY    81  73  76 E5        29.92R
COATESVILLE    MOSUNNY   79  70  73 CALM      29.94S
READING        SUNNY     80  73  79 N6        29.91S
ALLENTOWN      SUNNY     81  68  64 CALM      29.92R
MOUNT POCONO   CLOUDY    69  62  78 CALM      29.99R
HAZLETON         N/A     73  66  78 CALM      30.01S
LEHIGHTON      FAIR      75  70  83 CALM      29.95S
WILKES BARRE   CLOUDY    74  67  78 CALM      29.95S

$$
DEZALL-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-221400-
DELAWARE AND EASTERN MARYLAND

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
WILMINGTON     MOSUNNY   83  74  74 NE9       29.90R
DOVER          MOSUNNY   81  81 100 S3        29.87S HX  92
GEORGETOWN     PTSUNNY   81  75  82 S6        29.90R
EASTON         MOSUNNY   82  75  78 CALM      29.93S
ABERDEEN       CLOUDY    82  74  77 NE5       29.90R
PATUXENT       PTSUNNY   83  76  79 NW9       29.90R HX  91
OCEAN CITY     SUNNY     79  75  87 VRB6      29.90R
WALLOPS ISLAND CLOUDY    84  76  76 W10       29.91R HX  93
SALISBURY      MOSUNNY   84  79  84 VRB3      29.89  HX  96
Link to comment
Share on other sites

WXSIM has rain by 6pm with heaviest around 7pm - really need the rain here in Chesco now 2.85" below our normal YTD precip. Township farmers have noted how dry we are. Good news is Wxsim shows 0.90" by midnight tonight and over 2.50" of rain with some measurable rain on 5 of the next 6 days...also of course no 90 degree days between now and the 31st.  Appears likely we will end July with zero 90 degree days in Chesco for the 3rd time in last 4 years!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

WXSIM has rain by 6pm with heaviest around 7pm - really need the rain here in Chesco now 2.85" below our normal YTD precip. Township farmers have noted how dry we are. Good news is Wxsim shows 0.90" by midnight tonight and over 2.50" of rain with some measurable rain on 5 of the next 6 days...also of course no 90 degree days between now and the 31st.  Appears likely we will end July with zero 90 degree days in Chesco for the 3rd time in last 4 years!

Corn has been growing like a weed in S Chesco and is in great shape.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Corn has been growing like a weed in S Chesco and is in great shape.

Yep we have missed so many storms to the north/south/west...you name it - really need some rain - please share the wealth with your northern county neighbors!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

Yep we have missed so many storms to the north/south/west...you name it - really need some rain - please share the wealth with your northern county neighbors!

Good luck. Models indicate today could be another goalpost day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Instability numbers continue to look impressive south of tpk. These should spread north too. SBcape already over 3000ju in Delmarva which is also where peak LI is too. DCAPE also continues to rise over the region with peak over sw nj. Wouldn't shock me if we see an enhanced show up at aftn update from i78 to Delmarva and going back towards Susq river. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd say Delmarva and southern nj is the area with highest chance of severe. The instability stuff is solid down there. Like this past week there is and boundary running through the area separating stable air and not so stable area. Only difference is here is I don't think that will matter as much since the daytime heating will offset that. But south of tpk right now looks primed 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Instability numbers continue to look impressive south of tpk. These should spread north too. SBcape already over 3000ju in Delmarva which is also where peak LI is too. DCAPE also continues to rise over the region with peak over sw nj. Wouldn't shock me if we see an enhanced show up at aftn update from i78 to Delmarva and going back towards Susq river. 

Looks like they're just keeping slgt risk, no enhance 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4th 90 day in a row in my part of NW Chesco - 93/92/91 and 91 (90.9) today.   Currently 89.2 with 73 DP.

Pretty miserable out, but have seen much worse and getting acclimated.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said:

Looks like the seas are parting so far...north of the turnpike/I-78 appears to be the best place to be, if you're not south of the M/D

Like watching a log splitter wedge going through a log with Chesco being the wedge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...