Bananashadow Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 The Newfoundland Pool based on what Jack told me averaged below normal during the sampling period this season. Last season it was above average and the nao was positive (like that hurt). At anyrate, will add other pieces to the puzzle as we move into fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bananashadow Posted August 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 The location southeast of Newfoundland (closer to the land mass than that pink bullseye) has correlated the best in recent winters. Of course by pointing this out in August its now destined to fail this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 Pinning this, awesome stuff as usual Tony. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bananashadow Posted August 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 Tom, I'll add the other aspects as we go along: Likely enso state QBO (which I think will be negative which is good) Eurasian/Siberian October snow cover Oct & Nov temps (like that worked last season) Number of recurving tropical systems Likely PDO (too bad it waited until November to change signs last fall) How many Mt Holly mets buy new snow throwers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 Sounds good. This will be a great thread to follow as we head into fall. Any summer corresponding values or numbers that point towards anything for winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bananashadow Posted August 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 Tom, I have not looked. The September correlation when I did my original paper was weak if not statistically insignificant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 In winter, when there is warm water off the east coast, does that attract cold air masses or warmer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 I've already thrown in the towel in this winter. I'm going to start miamiwx.com 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bananashadow Posted August 9, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 In winter, when there is warm water off the east coast, does that attract cold air masses or warmer? Wes used to always talk about the warm polar/cold mid lat/warm tropics strata (tripole) to promote/prolong/sustain the -nao. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 Yes, all else being equal, +AMO favors -NAO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 Our new snow stake out in front of our office, points to a mild winter . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted August 9, 2014 Report Share Posted August 9, 2014 CFS is showing a more displaced/ not east based el-nino now. This would be another check for snow/cold this winter. Also, continues the warm pool south of AK, another check for cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heav Posted August 10, 2014 Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 Just go buy a Farmer's Almanac. Only tool you need. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bananashadow Posted August 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2014 Just go buy a Farmer's Almanac. Only tool you need. Farmer's Almanac or Old Farmer's Almanac? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Brandon Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Mitchg, you just made a post about a mild winter and then immediately afterward one about a cold winter, which confuses me. Was the first post with that strange emoticon some type of joke? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 Mitchg, you just made a post about a mild winter and then immediately afterward one about a cold winter, which confuses me. Was the first post with that strange emoticon some type of joke? He's probably being sarcastic about the torch because of the new snow stakes. The whole JYNX thing going on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bananashadow Posted August 12, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 I see the CFS is dropping molten lava off our coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 12, 2014 Report Share Posted August 12, 2014 I see the CFS is dropping molten lava off our coast. glbSSTMonInd6.gif not saying its right, but that map doesn't show the cool pool south of greenland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wavebreak Posted August 15, 2014 Report Share Posted August 15, 2014 I've already thrown in the towel in this winter. I'm going to start miamiwx.com I heard 76-77 is a great analog this winter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 15, 2014 Report Share Posted August 15, 2014 I heard 76-77 is a great analog this winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamPHLWx Posted August 15, 2014 Report Share Posted August 15, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wavebreak Posted August 15, 2014 Report Share Posted August 15, 2014 I was trying to troll Adam with the time it snowed in Miami in 77 haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 15, 2014 Report Share Posted August 15, 2014 I was trying to troll Adam with the time it snowed in Miami in 77 haha Yea that went right over my head like the Guinness is a stout. But I did catch Adam's reaction to that analog.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSU_Wxgirl Posted August 16, 2014 Report Share Posted August 16, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bananashadow Posted August 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2014 I'm not well versed with QBO, do you prefer looking at 30mb vs 50mb, or the reverse? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.