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7/6-7/7 Heavy Rain/ embedded T-storms OBS


tombo82685
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Models are once again showing the potential for heavy rain over the region with PWATS over 2". Any storms will be capable of torrential downpours that may lead to some flash flooding. Currently the WPC favors the nw burbs to the pocs for the heaviest rains.

If blank, model image not available

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0.00000000" so far.  I should make a tee time reservation at Ramblewood or have an outdoor lunch party.  For today, RGEM looks like its verifying the best of the mesoscale bunch and last couple of HRRR(s) not terribly grass exciting for the Philly metro area.  Dont know if its the down south convection that is stealing the show.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

0.00000000" so far.  I should make a tee time reservation at Ramblewood or have an outdoor lunch party.  For today, RGEM looks like its verifying the best of the mesoscale bunch and last couple of HRRR(s) not terribly grass exciting for the Philly metro area.  Dont know if its the down south convection that is stealing the show.

Euro doesn't bring stuff in till closer towards 18z. Then another round tomorrow morning. Hrrr and rgem definitely not that enthused. 6z nam was robust for later this afternoon. Almost looks like some sort of subsidence zone  from dry air.

 

Through 12z, eps have less than .1 for phl. between 12z and 18z about .4. Then between 18z and 12z fri is the strongest signal

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39 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Well nam cut back too. Seems like we have some sort of subsidence over the region 

Looked like 12Z - 18Z on the NAM was the only heavy potential. Everything else looked hit or miss. I noticed the other models kind of dissipated the main rain mass before it got here.

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31 minutes ago, cbelke said:

Looked like 12Z - 18Z on the NAM was the only heavy potential. Everything else looked hit or miss. I noticed the other models kind of dissipated the main rain mass before it got here.

The 3k nam had much heavier rain over the region. 

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

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55 minutes ago, cbelke said:

That batch to the West of Harrisburg is what's coming this way? Doesn't look like it moved very much.

I think the stuff for Tomorrow morning is the precip in the oh valley associated with the area of LP

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19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

The 12z euro keeps most of the heavy precip along i78 tomorrow morning with that LP. phl metro kind of in sucker hole with miss to the south and to the north

I think there is a slighted going on (just got this e-mail)....

Capture.JPG.e61fa807c6b55a149bb3c62be6eddd75.JPG

 

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12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Euro total qpf from now till 0z sat

The euro looks too skimpy south of phl - some heavy rains developing in Northern De and nearby Md+NJ

New Castle DE-
301 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
  Southwestern New Castle County in northern Delaware...

* Until 500 PM EDT

* At 300 PM EDT...Doppler radar indicated heavy rain that will cause
  minor flooding in the advisory area. Rainfall rates of one to two
  inches are possible locally.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Middletown, Clayton, Delaney Corner, Mount Pleasant, Green Spring,
  Townsend, Odessa and Chambersville.
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7 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

The euro looks too skimpy south of phl - some heavy rains developing in Northern De and nearby Md+NJ


New Castle DE-
301 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
  Southwestern New Castle County in northern Delaware...

* Until 500 PM EDT

* At 300 PM EDT...Doppler radar indicated heavy rain that will cause
  minor flooding in the advisory area. Rainfall rates of one to two
  inches are possible locally.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Middletown, Clayton, Delaney Corner, Mount Pleasant, Green Spring,
  Townsend, Odessa and Chambersville.

Well as you know with convection it's not going to be 100% right. Just showing that somewhere in the area is going to get hit well tomorrow morn. But agree its to weak phl south right now

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20 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Well as you know with convection it's not going to be 100% right. Just showing that somewhere in the area is going to get hit well tomorrow morn. But agree its to weak phl south right now

Yeah models have been struggling with location. Plenty of juice, just have to wait and see who gets dumped on.

pwtr_sf.gif

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