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7/1 slgt/marginal risk OBS


tombo82685
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Meso models do the VAY dissipation job.  I know this is wishcasting, but kind of odd given the relatively early timing of arrival (7 or 8 pm) here, not exactly unstable at that time.  This usually works better with post sunset arriving (collapsing) convection.  Didnt look upstairs, but assuming with that predicted outcome, what short wave there is must lift northwest of SNJ.

 

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22 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Meso models do the VAY dissipation job.  I know this is wishcasting, but kind of odd given the relatively early timing of arrival (7 or 8 pm) here, not exactly unstable at that time.  This usually works better with post sunset arriving (collapsing) convection.  Didnt look upstairs, but assuming with that predicted outcome, what short wave there is must lift northwest of SNJ.

 

My guess would be timing and best forcing?

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Hvy rain like last night will be an issue too. Pwats over 2" south of LV at this time. Abundant moisture for this line to work off. Just need to pop some sun to get some more instability. CAPE values are good right now over 1000ju

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quick .10" as I'm trying to load up the car for the shore, absolutely disgusting right now

good luck to those looking for some active storms today, I'll be on the out of the mix beachfront in Manasquan

ocean water temps took another dump into the 50's so report yesterday was quite chilly on beach, hopefully the south wind today can get that ocean above the Mendoza line

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Fairly far west of you all and 10 miles west of State College we had a one-two punch of a discrete cell that blew up and had a brief downpour with a few  40-45 mph gusts, then when the main line hit it exploded right over our house. Not much wind the second time but big downpour. We got .89 from those storms and a bit more to go. Fairly intense lightning from the second line to our south, see image from lightningmaps.org. I imagine NWS CTP is watching the line rolling through Huntingdon County closely. 

Sharing this to note how quickly these blew up once they hit a more unstable environment, and this was 12:15-1:10 time period well to your west. No doubt something for you all to keep an eye on. Looking at satellite, sure seem to be getting enough sun. Good luck. 



 

Screen Shot 2017-07-01 at 1.09.16 PM.png

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1 minute ago, Chubbs said:

Storms starting to develop along 3 lines: De River, Susq Valley and strongest in central Pa.

nrnmidat_02_20170701165718.jpg

There were some interesting little discrete cells up here near UNV that blew up in front of main line. Liking the chances for eastern PA. 

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DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been slowly intensifying across
   portions of southern New York and western/central Pennsylvania in
   the vicinity of a surface trough of low pressure as of 1645Z. 
   Downstream, diurnal heating of a moist air mass with dew points in
   the lower 70s continues, and surface-based instability by early/mid
   afternoon should range between 1000-locally 2000 J/kg.  Increasing
   large-scale ascent will develop over the area this afternoon as a
   mid-level impulse moves northeast from the lower Great Lakes/Ohio
   Valley, contributing to a continued increase in thunderstorm
   coverage/intensity.  Deep-layer southwesterly shear of 30-40 kts
   will promote multicell clusters/line segments with a threat for
   damaging winds this afternoon.  Some potential exists for a
   supercell with mid-level rotation, especially with more discrete
   cells across the discussion area, resulting in the potential for
   isolated large hail.

   A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed prior to 19Z for
   much of the area.

mcd1211.gif

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not seeing anything to significant svr wise so far. Those bow segments earlier that were trying to form went more towards a linear line. There is some stronger winds with the cells headed towards western Schuylkill county. Everything else looks like just heavy rain right now.

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