tombo82685 Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Sprinkles earlier not enough to wet the ground. A few brief sunny periods - 82F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Meso models do the VAY dissipation job. I know this is wishcasting, but kind of odd given the relatively early timing of arrival (7 or 8 pm) here, not exactly unstable at that time. This usually works better with post sunset arriving (collapsing) convection. Didnt look upstairs, but assuming with that predicted outcome, what short wave there is must lift northwest of SNJ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 22 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Meso models do the VAY dissipation job. I know this is wishcasting, but kind of odd given the relatively early timing of arrival (7 or 8 pm) here, not exactly unstable at that time. This usually works better with post sunset arriving (collapsing) convection. Didnt look upstairs, but assuming with that predicted outcome, what short wave there is must lift northwest of SNJ. My guess would be timing and best forcing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Hvy rain like last night will be an issue too. Pwats over 2" south of LV at this time. Abundant moisture for this line to work off. Just need to pop some sun to get some more instability. CAPE values are good right now over 1000ju Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Sun should increase in coverage as the afternoon moves on. Models did a good job with this morning/midday junk. A few sprinkles and the occasional peek of sun thus far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 quick .10" as I'm trying to load up the car for the shore, absolutely disgusting right now good luck to those looking for some active storms today, I'll be on the out of the mix beachfront in Manasquan ocean water temps took another dump into the 50's so report yesterday was quite chilly on beach, hopefully the south wind today can get that ocean above the Mendoza line Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Storms starting to develop along 3 NNE/SSW lines: near Del River, Susq Valley and strongest in central Pa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieO Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Fairly far west of you all and 10 miles west of State College we had a one-two punch of a discrete cell that blew up and had a brief downpour with a few 40-45 mph gusts, then when the main line hit it exploded right over our house. Not much wind the second time but big downpour. We got .89 from those storms and a bit more to go. Fairly intense lightning from the second line to our south, see image from lightningmaps.org. I imagine NWS CTP is watching the line rolling through Huntingdon County closely. Sharing this to note how quickly these blew up once they hit a more unstable environment, and this was 12:15-1:10 time period well to your west. No doubt something for you all to keep an eye on. Looking at satellite, sure seem to be getting enough sun. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieO Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Chubbs said: Storms starting to develop along 3 lines: De River, Susq Valley and strongest in central Pa. There were some interesting little discrete cells up here near UNV that blew up in front of main line. Liking the chances for eastern PA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been slowly intensifying across portions of southern New York and western/central Pennsylvania in the vicinity of a surface trough of low pressure as of 1645Z. Downstream, diurnal heating of a moist air mass with dew points in the lower 70s continues, and surface-based instability by early/mid afternoon should range between 1000-locally 2000 J/kg. Increasing large-scale ascent will develop over the area this afternoon as a mid-level impulse moves northeast from the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, contributing to a continued increase in thunderstorm coverage/intensity. Deep-layer southwesterly shear of 30-40 kts will promote multicell clusters/line segments with a threat for damaging winds this afternoon. Some potential exists for a supercell with mid-level rotation, especially with more discrete cells across the discussion area, resulting in the potential for isolated large hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed prior to 19Z for much of the area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 def Tony type weather out there today 83/75 in gilly, gross. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 nice looking line so far. Some stronger winds showing up on velocity headed towards seg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 some embedded hail on that line too in stronger cells Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 You can see 3 bow segments trying to organize. The one north of mdt is the mature. The other 2 are organizing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 45 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: def Tony type weather out there today 83/75 in gilly, gross. Pulling minty ground ivy. .01" in backup gauge so far today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Pulling minty ground ivy. .01" in backup gauge so far today. Is that .01 the sweat coming off you? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 not seeing anything to significant svr wise so far. Those bow segments earlier that were trying to form went more towards a linear line. There is some stronger winds with the cells headed towards western Schuylkill county. Everything else looks like just heavy rain right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Nice hailer up by Hamburg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Some increasing wind and hail signature going up around lns Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted July 1, 2017 Report Share Posted July 1, 2017 Yes that line is strengthening rapidly. Hoping it stays far enough south to hit usSent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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