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Historically Early Runs Of Hot Weather (90+) in PHL.


Rainshadow
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With the 90s likely returning to PHL by Sunday the 11th and modeling consensus for at least four days in a row, here is a look at the longest prolonged early heat for PHL.  These runs of 90 or above all ended by June 30th.  There were a pair of 12 day runs (1901 & 1912) that started at the end of June and continued into July. The former had six days in June, the latter three.  There were a couple of eight day runs that did the same.

5/25-6/2/1991.....9 days.....highest temp 97

6/12-19/1957......8 days.....highest temp 100 (following winter.....)

6/1-7/1925..........7 days......highest temp 100

6/20-26/1888......7 days......highest temp 97

6/21-26/1909......6 days......highest temp 94

6/17-23/1884......6 days......highest temp 95

There were 13 occurrences of 5 days in a row, the latest happened twice in 2010.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Assuming things don't cool off, eps showing 93 in phl should translate to a 95/96 being doable 

If I were to start another guess the absolute max temp thread for next week, that would be my number for PHL 95.5F.

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7 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Doesn't look like there are many takers for the op gfs.

Capture.thumb.JPG.9766f92226923e8e864078a9fa798280.JPG

The raw 2m temp on euro is 95. So I'm figuring as a degree or two on to that. It's usually not as cool as the 3-5 bias as gfs but it's usually off by a couple. 850s are around 20c

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20 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Something to watch, gfs bringing a backdoor cold front in to save us from heat on Wednesday. Euro says nope, stays up in New England before a cold front comes in thurs/fri

New version of GFS doesnt have it.  Feeling is its a front door wait later in the week.  But all is not lost, I see another tweet about how "great" the GFS is in the making.

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Something to watch, gfs bringing a backdoor cold front in to save us from heat on Wednesday. Euro says nope, stays up in New England before a cold front comes in thurs/fri

Actually euro is in agreement. The meteogram for Phil was stuck on 0z just updated. It brings that Blackfoot cold front through Wednesday evening. Also high 2m temp is 94 so 95/96 doable. The eps though don't agree and have the heatwave going till friday, congrats

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15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Actually euro is in agreement. The meteogram for Phil was stuck on 0z just updated. It brings that Blackfoot cold front through Wednesday evening. Also high 2m temp is 94 so 95/96 doable. The eps though don't agree and have the heatwave going till friday, congrats

So does the 18z GFS. 

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well the 0z gfs went back towards the backdoor cold front. The euro has it too but it gets stuck between phl and nyc. Nyc is in the 70s while phl in the 90s. It does create a mechanism for generating thunderstorms though. Euro would advertise wed-sat storm chances with highs in the 90s everyday except saturday. high 2m temp off 0z euro was 94, so 95/96 on the table. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

well the 0z gfs went back towards the backdoor cold front. The euro has it too but it gets stuck between phl and nyc. Nyc is in the 70s while phl in the 90s. It does create a mechanism for generating thunderstorms though. Euro would advertise wed-sat storm chances with highs in the 90s everyday except saturday. high 2m temp off 0z euro was 94, so 95/96 on the table. 

I'd feel better about this (backdoor) if I were living in Connecticut than Delaware.

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On ‎6‎/‎7‎/‎2017 at 8:51 AM, Rainshadow said:

With the 90s likely returning to PHL by Sunday the 11th and modeling consensus for at least four days in a row, here is a look at the longest prolonged early heat for PHL.  These runs of 90 or above all ended by June 30th.  There were a pair of 12 day runs (1901 & 1912) that started at the end of June and continued into July. The former had six days in June, the latter three.  There were a couple of eight day runs that did the same.

5/25-6/2/1991.....9 days.....highest temp 97

6/12-19/1957......8 days.....highest temp 100 (following winter.....)

6/1-7/1925..........7 days......highest temp 100

6/20-26/1888......7 days......highest temp 97

6/21-26/1909......6 days......highest temp 94

6/17-23/1884......6 days......highest temp 95

There were 13 occurrences of 5 days in a row, the latest happened twice in 2010.

 

 

 

that 1925 heat wave is just sick for the 1st week of June, 3 days of 98 & 2 triples

one of the more interesting Philly climo stats is there have been more 100 degree days recorded in June than August

6-1925.png.d1748758103765d98d9a655f5efa55c7.png

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20 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said:

that 1925 heat wave is just sick for the 1st week of June, 3 days of 98 & 2 triples

one of the more interesting Philly climo stats is there have been more 100 degree days recorded in June than August

6-1925.png.d1748758103765d98d9a655f5efa55c7.png

Two days with mins higher than 80 also.  Sickening indeed.

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

well the 0z gfs went back towards the backdoor cold front. The euro has it too but it gets stuck between phl and nyc. Nyc is in the 70s while phl in the 90s. It does create a mechanism for generating thunderstorms though. Euro would advertise wed-sat storm chances with highs in the 90s everyday except saturday. high 2m temp off 0z euro was 94, so 95/96 on the table. 

This graph just doesnt do much for my confidence.  Saw at 06z the gfs and par gfs flipped on the back door.

Capture.thumb.JPG.f7c6dcf87112b6af6a310193f50c8692.JPG

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

You have a decent model concurring on the back door scenario:     

 

I hope it holds.

 

Euro jumped on board too, ends heat wednesday. Though, it does have next weekend getting close to 90 with storms. 

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24 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Euro jumped on board too, ends heat wednesday. Though, it does have next weekend getting close to 90 with storms. 

eps in agreement too that it may end wednesday. They are also showing the start of another unsettled period with storm chances from next wednesday right through the weekend into the following week. 

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