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5/25 Rain/Aftn T-storm obs


tombo82685
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14 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

hrrr and some of meso models showing a pretty robust area of rain and embedded storms later on this afternoon and eve

Could get interesting this afternoon with good dynamics and warm front in area. SPC has marginal probs from about Trenton south - below is the write-up

...Middle Atlantic...

   Strong 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across the Middle
   Atlantic region early in the period as a negative-tilt trough
   translates east of the Appalachians.  Latest short-range model
   guidance suggests 500mb speed max will round the base of the trough
   over southern GA at 12z then eject off the Carolina coast during the
   afternoon.  Exit region of this feature should aid convection across
   the Middle Atlantic and isolated strong storms may evolve within a
   corridor of focused ascent.  NAM guidance suggests much of this
   region will see appreciable boundary-layer warming - more than
   adequate for surface-based parcels to reach their convective
   temperatures.  Latest thinking is thunderstorms should concentrate
   across the northern Middle Atlantic where low-level convergence will
   be stronger in the presence of a pronounced east-west surface front
   draped across the Delmarva into southern PA.  Forecast buoyancy is
   not that great across this region but shear profiles seem adequate
   for at least low severe probs, including hail, wind, and perhaps a
   brief tornado.

 

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GOES-16:  showery soup north of warm front currently in extreme S md. clearing out south of front. Forced convection in W Va. Agree that widespread severe is unlikely due to limited instability - as usual heavy rain and thunder are our most likely threats.

goes16525am.jpg

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32 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

GOES-16:  showery soup north of warm front currently in extreme S md. clearing out south of front. Forced convection in W Va. Agree that widespread severe is unlikely due to limited instability - as usual heavy rain and thunder are our most likely threats.

goes16525am.jpg

I was told by Patrick that the one minute imagery on GOES 16 is really cool when watching the cu pop.

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16 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I was told by Patrick that the one minute imagery on GOES 16 is really cool when watching the cu pop.

I bet. The 5-min is fun to watch when the cap breaks, even for our meager events to-date. Handy today with soup, front, convection all nearby. I see Patuxent has a 70dp

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We've had some pretty heavy rain here in KoP for the last 1/2 hr or so.  I keep getting distracted from work looking out my window every time I hear the 'roar' of a rain band sweep across the parking lot behind me.  I'm sure the fact that I need to go out to my car and get something makes it seem much more heavy than it is.

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29 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

I see Patuxent has a 70dp

Patuxent fell back to 64dp at 10 - mixing? error? Salisbury is 71/69 Georgetown 69/67

25 09:52 SW 16 10.00 Mostly Cloudy FEW010 SCT095 BKN250 69 64     84% NA NA 29.49 998.6      
25 08:52 S 9 10.00 Mostly Cloudy SCT010 BKN095 BKN250 70 70     100% NA NA 29.46 997.6      
                                   
                                   
                                   
                                   
                                   

 

 

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