Rainshadow Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Well why should it be different I suppose. Looks like the climate models want to keep the middle of the country wet which at least should offer a fighting opportunity to the heat ridge if close. Doesnt say much about the Bermuda high though. The IMME is not as torrid, maybe the Euro is inbetween. Anyway every cooler than average May this century has resulted in a hotter than average summer. Then 14 of 17 have been. CFS2 looks like its pendulum swinging back to a weak nino. Enjoy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 18, 2017 Report Share Posted May 18, 2017 this seems more in line Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 18, 2017 Report Share Posted May 18, 2017 Then we go to week 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2017 4 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Then we go to week 2 I hope its right, but like winter (and that GFS thread), I'll believe it when more than half of it is within 9 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 Congrats Colorado... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 I have to take it back about the first post, the Euro is warm too for the summer: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 I guess I found the IMME member. Sigh, one could always about this: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 Lets keep this look up for the next year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 24, 2017 Report Share Posted May 24, 2017 Still not seeing much of a heat signal through June 10. Pretty persistent Rex block look out west and trough in the east that sort of flattens out a little with time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 24, 2017 Report Share Posted May 24, 2017 Might have to watch some sort of warm up towards mid to late June. Looks like MJO could possible swing towards phase 5/6 which is a warm phase. Not saying this is guarantee, my summer h5 skill is pretty blah because of how short wavelengths get. So while a normal h5 look in winter would typically yield one thing, it's different in summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted May 24, 2017 Report Share Posted May 24, 2017 20 hours ago, Rainshadow said: I guess I found the IMME member. Sigh, one could always about this: The smiley face over the Rockies means??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 24, 2017 1 hour ago, cbelke said: The smiley face over the Rockies means??? Not much. The eyes and nose (Great Salt Lake?) were already there on the map. I just added the mouth to the image. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted May 24, 2017 Report Share Posted May 24, 2017 I predict <25 90 degree days for the Actual Summer period for PHL. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 25, 2017 Report Share Posted May 25, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 26, 2017 Report Share Posted May 26, 2017 Still don't see any heat through June 10. Persistent trough over the east with ridge out west and in the Atlantic. Will have to see once we get into mid to late June with MJO effects if we get some heat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted May 26, 2017 Report Share Posted May 26, 2017 Analogs: 2002,2009,2012,2014 Averages: June: Normal temps, slightly above normal precipitation. July: +1, below normal precipitation. August: +1, above normal precipitation. I did this in less than 30 minutes, but all indications are close to or slightly above normal on the temperatures this summer. That list is scary good if you take those same years into next winter . 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 26, 2017 Report Share Posted May 26, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 26, 2017 Report Share Posted May 26, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 26, 2017 4 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Ben Noll could have just read our thread. Looks like we are going to be pretty close to 63.6F for May, so my stopped clock summer outlook might have to wait til May 31st. If I were smart, I'd wait til August 31st. Looks like the 3.4 nino has slowed, up to this point it looks like the modeling has been lagging with the nina troffing / then maybe the nino peak? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 14 hours ago, tombo82685 said: 2009 as far as April/May Temps locally is not a bad fit. But beyond that, I see that 2009-10 was downgraded to a moderate el nino (vs weak end of strong on previous used normals). Given how the models like to go bold with nina/nino in the previous spring, not sure we even get there beyond summer given recent biases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 1 hour ago, Rainshadow said: 2009 as far as April/May Temps locally is not a bad fit. But beyond that, I see that 2009-10 was downgraded to a moderate el nino (vs weak end of strong on previous used normals). Given how the models like to go bold with nina/nino in the previous spring, not sure we even get there beyond summer given recent biases. 2009 was the stronger nino extreme on my list 2012 never fully materialized and was quite a bit hotter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 it's looking pretty solid that May could finish below normal for the month as well. June looks to start off below normal too for the first 10 days if not longer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 28, 2017 19 hours ago, Mitchg said: 2009 was the stronger nino extreme on my list 2012 never fully materialized and was quite a bit hotter. It has been wet, which is never a bad thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 28, 2017 15 hours ago, tombo82685 said: it's looking pretty solid that May could finish below normal for the month as well. June looks to start off below normal too for the first 10 days if not longer Close counts in horse shoes and monthly normals. According to latest Mt. Holly ccf for rest of month, PHL ends up below normal for month of May by 0.1F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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