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  1. Is there any NWS data base kept of lightning strikes by day, exact time and exact location. If so how long are these records maintained Thank you in advance.
  2. It is a long way off to say the least but to my untrained eye that looks like a very dangerous 500 MB pattern for the east coast especially for the mid atlantic northward https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2020082606&fh=384
  3. I am trying to follow TD 13 from my house here id S FL. There seems to be a major disconnect between the global models and the Hurricane models. The Euro seems to have lost it all together. The GFS has a minimal TS until it gets into the northern Gulf. The CMC still has an impressive storm but is really not known as a tropical weather model. The UK also has a relatively weak TS passing through the FL Straights. The ICON( also not known as a good tropical model ) is similar to the UK. The Hurricane models have a major slamming directly into S FL on Monday. Who am I to believe? Is
  4. How much of the change from active season to hyperactive season is based on already being so far ahead of normal? In other words if for example the peak season was nothing more than normal or slightly above normal would the season still be considered hyperactive because of so much early season activity?
  5. Question for the mets on the board: It would seem to me that the hurricane warning conflicts with the NHC's own data in SE Florida. For WPB there is only a 6% chance of 64kt winds and based on the 0 percent chance in FLL probably closer to 3% in Boca Raton yet the hurricane warning goes all the way down to Boca Raton. My concern would be the " boy who cried wolf" hurricane warning may keep people from taking the next hurricane warning which may be a much more serious situation too lightly. Why Maintain a hurricane warning once the chances of 64kt winds are so small? Tha
  6. Thanks for the congrats. As for the scotch it could be cork sediment. Have you tried filtering it? In that bottle it is hard to tell what color the sediment is.
  7. Celebrating a new grandson J Walker Blue
  8. What is the wind forecast for Friday afternoon at PHL. I have a flight due in to PHL at around 3PM? Thanks in advance
  9. Aren't pre Thanksgiving snows the kiss of death for the rest of the winter for the Phila area?
  10. Here it is August 20 and even looking at the full 384 hr GFS run for the tropics going all the way back to the the African wave train things look pretty tame through Sept 5 which is into the heart of Hurricane season. I would love to hear the updated take on all of this from the experts on the board. Thanks in advance.
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