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Everything posted by wxmvpete

  1. Weather Bell has come out with an updated Winter forecast. They had 57-58 as their top analog, followed by 2014-15, 1997-98, 2002-03, and 72-73. They also factored in 1919-20, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1994-95, and 2009-10. http://www.weatherbell.com/public-winter-15-16-forecast
  2. I haven't been using 1000-500 thickness much with this event. The warm layer resides more within 900-700mb and with low level clod flying in first that needs to carry weight. I have been playing more with the 1000-700mb thickness as the p-type transition line. While 850-700mb maybe better, with the low level cold air flying in first I didn't want to discount the 1000-850 thickness either. Attached is the Euro at hour 42 w/ 1000-700mb thickness. It crashes to Cape May 6 hours later.
  3. Sorry there, was typing this as you posted my tweet haha.
  4. As previously mentioned, I'm curious to watch the banding in south-central PA. Looking at SPC Mesoanalysis, area of 700mb frontogenesis is starting to develop. . Also, SW and SC PA are sitting in the left exit region of a ~95-100 knot 500mb jet core centered over northern KY. Something to watch as it presses east as this would be the band that gives Philly its period of heaviest snow.
  5. The NAM is noticeably wetter in VA than it's 12Z run. Whether it be due to more influence from the Baja low (starting to see interaction with s/w on wv) or the depth of the s/w trough, note the steady stream of moisture over Mexico heading into the southeast. Could be due to better influence of sub-tropical moisture. The image is WV overlayed with RAP derived 500mb heights and winds.
  6. The QPF totals have steadily increased through the day as well. KPHL 09Z SREF QPF mean was 0.42", 15Z was 0.51", Mean plumes for new 21Z run is 0.56".
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