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About AdamPHLWx

  • Birthday 05/26/1981

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    Willow Grove, PA

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  1. Extratropical SSTs aren't that different from last year. I think a lot has to do with the lack of a STJ this year because of the stronger Nina. As his post showed, we had a lot of -EPO last year, too, but the PV dropping into E North America is because we also had a PNA ridge in place that didn't exist last year.
  2. Yeah, I'll be too high. I'd guess 70 kts at landfall now
  3. Agree that the threat has diminished, but it's definitely not zero. Some of the people I see on twitter are not doing the community any favors.
  4. Can you imagine the board right now if this was 3 days before a snow storm?
  5. I'm seeing it even in relation to the FL landfall. Regardless, I don't think the reason for the spread in the Gulf is because it hasn't formed yet, it's the uncertainty in the position and intensity of the ridge over the Mid-Atlantic. The tropical system is just along for the ride.
  6. For sure. Especially in notoriously tricky RI areas like the Bahamas and Eastern Gulf.
  7. Seeing lots of social media saying "we don't know what's going to happen because it hasn't formed yet." I disagree. Model guidance is very well clustered over the next 72 hours and all are in agreement that it stays weak. I feel very confident in saying that 99L will be near the NW Bahamas Saturday afternoon.
  8. Current max sustained winds are 40 kts based on aircraft recon, but there isn't a closed circulation, so no name. The ATCF decks have the max wind speed at 40 kt though.
  9. If I were on the desk (I'm not), I'd go Cat 2 into MOB/PNS. EPS members are still quite left skewed.
  10. Models are already expecting a weak system, so I'm not sure being weak means farther south than guidance
  11. Yeah, the updated skin is awesome. I'm already using it as my default.
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