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susqushawn last won the day on January 20

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About susqushawn

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    Valley Forge, PA

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  1. You can see initial great lakes low...the mean transfer is decently far S in latitude so we have a shot.
  2. I'd suspect that lack of confluence is limiting initial precip expansion given no dual jet structure until it's in New England. As you said it's a Miller B. Basically we have stale air and await favorable timing of cold front and transfer to our S just in time for the coastal to form and column to be sufficiently cool. Mids are essentially right over us, another risk with late blooming miller b. Yes, way too much detail, but it's a look that's been present past few runs. Doable, just extra special fortunate should it work out.
  3. Reminiscent of some big storms with sharp western cutoffs that crush areas mainly NE of PHL. Just my gut. Good look here.
  4. I thought the same at 18z but then looked at past runs and they all have it. It vamooses fast enough to allow the main show to ride the coast. We may need it as a 50/50 although there's nothing to slow it down
  5. HP is a concern but we can wait till later to see how this screws the pooch. Good look for now
  6. Euro is 100+ miles farther S with vort ejecting out of SW than other guidance. I didnt look at surface, but did southern wave keep precip S?
  7. I'm hoping that earlier phase occurs. We have much better confluence. 12z gefs have more storms for the d10 storm,at which point we are too warm
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