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susqushawn last won the day on January 31

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About susqushawn

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    Spotter ID CHPA-097

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    Valley Forge, PA

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  1. Hook echo develooing near willow grove, heading to ne philly
  2. Eastern montco storm trying to take on a similar look
  3. NWS snippet: the forecast is for the morning showers and isolated thunderstorms to slowly translate east. As this occurs a fractured stratus deck will start to lift. The stalled front currently near the fall line will also lift north as a warm front with rich theta-e air surging northwards. This recycled moisture regime will help to destabilize the region even if the stratus doesn`t ever completely clear. Both the GFS and NAM are indicating MLCAPE values of around 1000/1500 J/kg. Still though, the amount of available instability is one of the potential failure modes today (esp. if morning
  4. There should be a window of time for the sun to peek out and aggravate the atmosphere. That may be in between the early onshore fetch and afternoon high cloud debris from a predominantly W/NW flow from h7 up in advance of the developing convection to our W. Rarely a good recipe for severe wx here but the potential is still heightened over a ho hum setup given high shear. Hi-res models are depicting an uphill battle and vary with CAPE development. Shear is high. Abundant clouds on HRRR limit CAPE. 3k NAM, despite clouds, looks ripe: Just like in the winter, time for obs
  5. Onshore flow Thu AM as HP slides offshore New England? That could screw up destabilization and sock us in some low clouds and drizzle?
  6. 50 kts of shear is impressive and will pull me out of hibernation. NWS mentions cloud debris from overnight MCS well to our west could muck up instability, but should those clouds shunt south, among other factors, we could be in store for an active severe weather day: SPC Concerning the severe potential, a 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move southeastward across the Great Lakes region. The exit region of this feature should move across the Mid Atlantic during the late afternoon and early evening. This will help to create strong deep-layer shear across much of
  7. Heavenly. 50s in Jul/Aug I assume are rarities anymore?
  8. You know full well you'll be checking radar during communion
  9. Valley Forge Park today from facebook. I wonder if it was an actual touchdown
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