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hm2

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Everything posted by hm2

  1. hm2
    Supplemental days-with-70s-in-March charts for Philadelphia:
  2. hm2
    6z EPS for KPHL
  3. hm2
    Added some tweets to the March expectations thread about 70+ degree days and the upcoming cool stretch this weekend. Models are colder than the NWS overall the next 3 days, but they're all close to 40F max. We'll see if PHL can add another day to the count (average is 3 in March).
  4. hm2
    It's really getting irritating how often that damn pre-xmas torch happens lately. It has to stop eventually, right? lol How cool is March 1960??!! That's good stat info!
  5. hm2
    This is probably the wrong thread for this but ran some numbers on the Philadelphia March days in terms of failing to reach 40F or exceeding 60. Days like today are becoming rarer in the dataset of course:
  6. hm2
    I posted a thread today on some of the mechanics/goings-on. The nature of this cyclonic wave break and its origin lead to a longer than average period of stirring / negative flow this weekend. The southern wave will have trouble gaining latitude with this happening; but, I think a shift NW isn't impossible. Perhaps this ends up threatening the SE / coastal areas in time?
  7. hm2
    The situation ahead reminds me of the situation a couple weeks ago a little bit: you get this illusion of a big ridge after the -NAO retrograde, but it ends up more split with some hybrid west based -NAO. In addition, this buckling sort of ripples westward and causing amplification out West as well. IOW, the simpleton view on long range ensembles ends up messier. The difference this time is the AAM structure and the PV structure are both further along in their cycles and more hostile. This is a low confidence period by far.
  8. hm2
    Snowflakes have arrived in Burlington Twp. Calculated wet bulb at precip's arrival...33. lol
  9. hm2
    KPHL Event #5 Over/Under Winners:
  10. hm2
    If KPHL holds with 3.3", you'll be 1 of the perfect score winners in the over/under game!
  11. hm2
    The soundings/warm nose were not much different from the December high bust. We just lacked a little more at 500mb this time, and that was enough to have more mixing involved. At least, that's my guess. Dec had a well defined wave whereas this time we were basically under a ridge with sufficient channelized vorticity/wind convergence for omega.
  12. hm2
    The people that took the under because "it's philly" will seem vindicated. I also saw pros rationalize that you should never underestimate the warm nose. They will also feel vindicated. But the reality is, that was a close one...closer than they will ever admit. Also, the idea that this would continue to shift NW because "that's the seasonal trend," was also put to bed. Models honed the SE PA / C NJ corridor in the short term as best as they could.
  13. hm2
    Regardless of what the KPHL number ends up at, everyone here did a great job at identifying the banding potential and close call over I-95. There will be a 6"+ gradient across Philadelphia county with this. Could have ended up a few miles in either direction easily.
  14. hm2
    Interesting... KILG 191351Z 36007KT 1 1/4SM R01/5500V6000FT -SN BR OVC007 M01/M02 A3015 RMK AO2 FZRAB39E49SNB49 CIG 004V009 SLP211 P0001 I1003 T10061022
  15. hm2
    The old coolwx plots are still more useful than anything wxbell is producing with its over-the-top color scheme.
  16. hm2
    I saw on the soundings a residual warm layer > 0C through like 14z but it's possible this area of better lift flips things from ZR/IP to SN/IP and eventually snow. Anything after 14-15z looks cold enough for snow. But a lot of this is about getting the mid levels to saturate/lift more than anything.
  17. hm2
    Plus, keep an eye on the stuff down in the SE. That's what the HRRR thinks will be here tomorrow morning.
  18. hm2
    Rough estimation of the fronto zones
  19. hm2
    For those wondering, here in Burlington Twp. the first shot started as all snow but quickly mixed with sleet. Now I'm mostly all sleet and it's getting heavier.
  20. hm2
    Yes, I'm including tomorrow's snow in this. I tweeted before the game started that this would count both 2/18 and 2/19 and I warned that sleet is counted towards F-6.
  21. hm2
    Half of this game is emotional, too. There was this sentiment on Twitter that no matter what, "take the under," because "it's Philly." Also, lots of people banked on mixing to ruin the show, which is not incorrect there.
  22. hm2
    Here is the breakdown of the entries. Interestingly, I received 2 late entries (after 3 AM) and both took the under. I'm going to double check all the numbers again soon.
  23. hm2
    Here you go (for anyone who was hoping for more there) KPHL 181532Z 04014KT 3/4SM -SN BR SCT012 BKN018 OVC041 M04/M06 A3039 RMK AO2 PLE15 P0003 T10391056 RVRNO
  24. hm2
    easily, yup
  25. hm2
    Short range guidance had a full scale changeover ~ 18z across SE PA / C NJ where it's currently ripping...but that's another 3 hours of these rates on top of areas that are 6-9". You do the math.
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