
hm2
Meteorologist-
Content Count
341 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Downloads
Store
Calendar
Member Map
Everything posted by hm2
-
Allsnow Will Get His 70F High & He Will Like It.
hm2 replied to Rainshadow6.6's topic in Short Range Forecast Discussion
Supplemental days-with-70s-in-March charts for Philadelphia: -
February/March Meteorological Pattern Discussion
hm2 replied to Rainshadow6.6's topic in Medium and Long Range Discussion
6z EPS for KPHL -
February/March Meteorological Pattern Discussion
hm2 replied to Rainshadow6.6's topic in Medium and Long Range Discussion
Added some tweets to the March expectations thread about 70+ degree days and the upcoming cool stretch this weekend. Models are colder than the NWS overall the next 3 days, but they're all close to 40F max. We'll see if PHL can add another day to the count (average is 3 in March). -
February/March Meteorological Pattern Discussion
hm2 replied to Rainshadow6.6's topic in Medium and Long Range Discussion
It's really getting irritating how often that damn pre-xmas torch happens lately. It has to stop eventually, right? lol How cool is March 1960??!! That's good stat info! -
February/March Meteorological Pattern Discussion
hm2 replied to Rainshadow6.6's topic in Medium and Long Range Discussion
This is probably the wrong thread for this but ran some numbers on the Philadelphia March days in terms of failing to reach 40F or exceeding 60. Days like today are becoming rarer in the dataset of course: -
Winter Storm Threats V (5 days and beyond)
hm2 replied to Heisenberg's topic in Medium and Long Range Discussion
I posted a thread today on some of the mechanics/goings-on. The nature of this cyclonic wave break and its origin lead to a longer than average period of stirring / negative flow this weekend. The southern wave will have trouble gaining latitude with this happening; but, I think a shift NW isn't impossible. Perhaps this ends up threatening the SE / coastal areas in time? -
Winter Storm Threats V (5 days and beyond)
hm2 replied to Heisenberg's topic in Medium and Long Range Discussion
The situation ahead reminds me of the situation a couple weeks ago a little bit: you get this illusion of a big ridge after the -NAO retrograde, but it ends up more split with some hybrid west based -NAO. In addition, this buckling sort of ripples westward and causing amplification out West as well. IOW, the simpleton view on long range ensembles ends up messier. The difference this time is the AAM structure and the PV structure are both further along in their cycles and more hostile. This is a low confidence period by far. -
Snowflakes have arrived in Burlington Twp. Calculated wet bulb at precip's arrival...33. lol
-
The soundings/warm nose were not much different from the December high bust. We just lacked a little more at 500mb this time, and that was enough to have more mixing involved. At least, that's my guess. Dec had a well defined wave whereas this time we were basically under a ridge with sufficient channelized vorticity/wind convergence for omega.
-
The people that took the under because "it's philly" will seem vindicated. I also saw pros rationalize that you should never underestimate the warm nose. They will also feel vindicated. But the reality is, that was a close one...closer than they will ever admit. Also, the idea that this would continue to shift NW because "that's the seasonal trend," was also put to bed. Models honed the SE PA / C NJ corridor in the short term as best as they could.
-
I saw on the soundings a residual warm layer > 0C through like 14z but it's possible this area of better lift flips things from ZR/IP to SN/IP and eventually snow. Anything after 14-15z looks cold enough for snow. But a lot of this is about getting the mid levels to saturate/lift more than anything.