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hm2

Meteorologist
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hm2 last won the day on September 5

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About hm2

  • Birthday 05/14/1985

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    Burlington, NJ

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  1. I saved this VWP just as the sh-t was hitting the fan. We had ridiculous SRH again with unimpeded buoyant inflow for proper updraft to utilize the streamwise shear.
  2. On the latest PNS, it looks like they updated this tornado to include that debris: .Burlington, NJ to Bristol, PA Tornado... Rating: EF-1 Estimated Peak Wind: 90 mph Path Length /statute/: 2.8 miles Path Width /maximum/: 200 yards Fatalities: None Injuries: None Start Date: Sep 01 2021 Start Time: 6:59 PM EDT Start Location: 2 SW Burlington, Burlington Co, NJ Start Lat/Lon: 40.06/-74.89 End Date: Sep 01 2021 End Time: 7:04 PM EDT End Location: Bristol, Bucks Co,
  3. I wanted to mention that in the first video from PA that you can make out that it hits something by the bridge and hurls debris northward, presumably into river. Try to watch it zoomed in to see debris. https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1434394952067387393?s=19
  4. The Burlington Twp. tornado was a close one (passed 4 miles to my west)! I was curious about this portion of the investigation where they say it went over a power and steel plant without any damage and did not produce any damage thereafter either. In their track map, they have it going right over this structure just before the bridge crossing. Here is a google map's view of this structure looking east across the river: https://goo.gl/maps/nz1y4cGHF8Em2iks5 In this video, about 30 seconds in, you'll see the tornado interact with the plants: https://www.facebook.com/anth
  5. Regardless of how you define the shear type, in general you'll see the climatological minimum in late July into August (and maximum in the winter). This is the time the westerlies are at their most poleward in the summer. You can get sounding climatology here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimo/ I've attached the bulk shear 0-6km OKX July 30th plot for example purposes.
  6. This is a nice summary by the NWS and the radar tab has excellent information. It makes you think about how much worse this could have been. https://www.weather.gov/phi/eventreview20210729
  7. Check out Leigh Orf's work to learn more about the importance of the streamwise vorticity current (SVC) that originates from the front flank downdraft. Here's a good paper that talks about it, but visit the main page too. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/98/1/bams-d-15-00073.1.xm https://orf.media/
  8. Tom, you didn't do as bad as you think you did, but I admire your approach to verification. It doesn't do anyone any good to live in a reality where they think they always do well (some big accounts on Twitter act like they always get it right). In fact, you were one of the few being honest about the day's confusing set of conditions and not writing off anything totally. And here's the thing, perhaps if we repeated this setup with similar conditions another 10 times, it wouldn't work out quite to the extent that this one did. Your approach being objective and listing the pros/cons is a good on
  9. It was referring to the moist profiles preventing dominating RFDs point.
  10. If we were able to somehow build a climo of types of setups here, this would definitely be 1 of the ways we would do it. The others would be tropical systems or systems with cold-season like dynamics/winds that produce powerful squall lines and embedded tornadoes (i.e. autumn of 1989 and 2003). It seems that the Ekster EML setups usually end up favoring interior areas into New England more than here, but we've seen those come down our way as well. In fact, NE NJ usually ends up participating in those. The Mid Atlantic threats with upper lows over the Central Appalachians usually end up to our
  11. Thanks! The sun point is just to get us to think about the various factors and what it could have meant with things like the LCL height, e.g. In the DC area, they still had supercells with some producing tornadoes, after receiving more heating than our area. Of course, their low level winds veered out more being away from the warm front and their LCLs rocketed upward. So, perhaps we would have seen something more like VA/DC with more damaging wind, perhaps significant, with a tornado or two, but the outbreak scenario may have shifted north to wherever the gradient/front ended up. I'l
  12. Jim, your thoughts look good to me. The RFD and FFD contributions to tornadogenesis remain a big research topic. Since tornadoes have been both observed and not observed in warm/cold RFDs, it appears that it doesn't solely determine tornado potential. In fact, occluding (sometimes more than once) is often associated with the mature stage of tornadoes (and then their death) and new tornadoes can quickly spin up next in cycle if the vorticity is channelized in the buoyant inflow properly. It's when the shear is not as streamwise where trouble starts with the mesocyclone and sub-tornadic vortices
  13. One of the coolest questions left in meteorology with a frontier-like feel to it is, "why do tornadoes exist." Research in the last 20 years has applied field/case studies to figure out why some rather organized supercells under pristine conditions do not produce tornadoes and others do. In the last 5-10 years, there have been some really good papers on this topic, focusing on the lowest 500m of the near-structure/under-structure environment. The importance of 0-500m SRH & 0-3km MLCAPE cannot be stressed enough. Assuming all the usual environmental conditions are there and favorable for su
  14. IIRC it was quite a potent signature on dual pol well beyond the Washington Crossing area. I suppose the heavily wooded park in epicenter of tornado lofted a ton of leaves/debris that lingered well beyond the tornado. The TDS signature continued to at least Ewing, if not further. It then completely diminished/became outflow dominant over Hamilton before tightening up again towards Robbinsville/Windsor for next tornado. A cyclic right turning supercell coming down into Mercer County is something else!
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