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hm2 last won the day on February 12

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About hm2

  • Birthday 05/14/1985

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    Burlington, NJ

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  1. Snowflakes have arrived in Burlington Twp. Calculated wet bulb at precip's arrival...33. lol
  2. If KPHL holds with 3.3", you'll be 1 of the perfect score winners in the over/under game!
  3. The soundings/warm nose were not much different from the December high bust. We just lacked a little more at 500mb this time, and that was enough to have more mixing involved. At least, that's my guess. Dec had a well defined wave whereas this time we were basically under a ridge with sufficient channelized vorticity/wind convergence for omega.
  4. The people that took the under because "it's philly" will seem vindicated. I also saw pros rationalize that you should never underestimate the warm nose. They will also feel vindicated. But the reality is, that was a close one...closer than they will ever admit. Also, the idea that this would continue to shift NW because "that's the seasonal trend," was also put to bed. Models honed the SE PA / C NJ corridor in the short term as best as they could.
  5. Regardless of what the KPHL number ends up at, everyone here did a great job at identifying the banding potential and close call over I-95. There will be a 6"+ gradient across Philadelphia county with this. Could have ended up a few miles in either direction easily.
  6. Interesting... KILG 191351Z 36007KT 1 1/4SM R01/5500V6000FT -SN BR OVC007 M01/M02 A3015 RMK AO2 FZRAB39E49SNB49 CIG 004V009 SLP211 P0001 I1003 T10061022
  7. The old coolwx plots are still more useful than anything wxbell is producing with its over-the-top color scheme.
  8. I saw on the soundings a residual warm layer > 0C through like 14z but it's possible this area of better lift flips things from ZR/IP to SN/IP and eventually snow. Anything after 14-15z looks cold enough for snow. But a lot of this is about getting the mid levels to saturate/lift more than anything.
  9. Plus, keep an eye on the stuff down in the SE. That's what the HRRR thinks will be here tomorrow morning.
  10. For those wondering, here in Burlington Twp. the first shot started as all snow but quickly mixed with sleet. Now I'm mostly all sleet and it's getting heavier.
  11. Yes, I'm including tomorrow's snow in this. I tweeted before the game started that this would count both 2/18 and 2/19 and I warned that sleet is counted towards F-6.
  12. Half of this game is emotional, too. There was this sentiment on Twitter that no matter what, "take the under," because "it's Philly." Also, lots of people banked on mixing to ruin the show, which is not incorrect there.
  13. Here is the breakdown of the entries. Interestingly, I received 2 late entries (after 3 AM) and both took the under. I'm going to double check all the numbers again soon.
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