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Everything posted by irishbri74

  1. You can tell we’re nearing the end of the season..quite than normal in here lol. (Better quality posts filling up the thread though!)
  2. Man, if you said 2 days ago this would have been all frozen, I’d of laughed and sold you a bridge in Brooklyn... crazy trends here you can see where that banding sets up just south of Philly into ally verbatim. Looks like it dissipates shortly afterwards as the mid levels warms and we lose that gradient.
  3. Just remember, outside of that initial fronto band (nice signal for it), looking at lower ratios as that warm nose advects in. Good signal for a nice thump somewhere in the mid Atlantic (for now) on guidance.
  4. You can see how the TPV shifts west, and the trough becomes more progressive. That’s how we stay colder , longer..
  5. Seems like the warm punch is around 750mbs, so keep an eye on that level. 700mb is what’s on the map products, so that can sorta cue you in without pulling soundings. Def a bit colder aloft here( makes sense with the south look)
  6. Last 4 GEFS runs: Trend is for flatter ridging along coast (not a classic snowstorm look, but will work for a front end thump).
  7. Gefs: I’ll believe this if I see it still by Wednesday.
  8. Just got back from Rehoboth. Just outside the beaches up towards Milford /Dover was a nice swath of ZR. Def got hit the hardest, cause north of there, wasn’t that much. (Wife took the pics as I was driving).
  9. I’m glad it’s moving out overnight though. I drive home from Rehoboth Sunday late morning. Hoping roads are good by then. !
  10. Believe it was the early feb storm?? If not that one, then the one in December. Yea, we should be posting the H5 maps , not the snow maps. But that’s just me. We’re looking for changes aloft.
  11. Last 3 GEFS... check out that lobe north of the Great Lakes... what @hm2 was talking about.
  12. You can see how much less influence out 50/50 has here, so the cold press isn’t as deep as originally modeled. 12z yesterday : vs 6z today: Now, Monday’s light zr drizzle might just be 33 and drizzle. (Maybe cold ground temps give some concerns? )
  13. That low 20’s/teen’s snow/ice storm is becoming a pipe dream.... last 3 euro runs still think it’s an ice threat, but we have to see where and how this trends.. it just may not be as cold as it looked the other day.
  14. Gewww, gfs is a hellacious ice storm for EPA/SEPA/ 95 corridor dc-NYC
  15. 1 run temp difference because confluence & associated HP is weaker ...
  16. @87, heights higher along the coast in general, shortwave looks to be phasing a bit earlier. Think this is warmer than previous runs... we’ll see
  17. Shortwave was a either a touch weaker or more progressive, so didn’t pump heights, and confluence pressed a bit more here.
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