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Everything posted by irishbri74

  1. The coastal NNJ/Delmarva blob is the level level convergence of the coastal front. The lighter echoes are in response to the upper level jet sprawling out and strengthening. Coastal front is winning out right now let's hope it fills in in betweeen.
  2. Lots going on here at different levels. Almost looks like it will validate the HRRR if it stays the course (thru 11z)
  3. The h5 low track looks great, but every little detail counts, especially for us SEPA/EPA folks.
  4. I noticed that earlier. I didn't want to even bring up that much more negativity.
  5. It's just how and when it does it, not the actual closing itself. It's gonna adversely affect where the best dynamics go.
  6. Some of us are going to wake up to a ripping snowstorm.. others with wild disappointment... who's it gonna be 😑
  7. NAM Is just 1 tool. Weigh it how you want. 3 dropsondes made it into the 0z NAM apparently.
  8. Tucked in closer, but jet constructs a bit from the west. At this point, EVERY but counts:
  9. May not be a good thing to see this close off and tuck in, especially for those on western fringes to begin with. Such a thread the needle event, that it'all constrict the forcing relative to center. You can see it on the QPF shield
  10. Great Disco Mitch. Clean, articulated and easy enough to understand while giving the big details that matter. Surely a tough forecast to handle. Good luck! Mt. Holly has the A-Team in tonight with you and Gorse!
  11. Getting a bit nervous. Models picking up on banding features and really starting to tighten the gradient. We'll let it play out. Still have a gut feeling in my stomach that i95 corridor could be waking up to a different storm.
  12. Don't take verbatim, but this illustrates the cut off potential.
  13. Thru 9z tomorrow;, hi-res hinting at the coastal front feature. Little subsidence over the 95 corridor you can see. Placement will vary, but something we should keep an eye on.
  14. Minute changes here for our latitude. SLP gets tugged a little east, but dynamics shifted west a little. A draw so to speak as far as outcome.
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