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irishbri74 last won the day on January 2

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About irishbri74

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    Skywarn #NKM-033

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    Drexel Hill

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  1. As far as the day 8-10th threat, we would ideally like to see that tpv lobe dig further south. While we have a solid block, that can cause a primary to cut , head further north than we would like to see if it partially phases..(kinda what the gfs op showed.) the block will cause redevelopment pretty far south, but that primary can hold on longer.* can see the split camps on the gefs
  2. You can see the signal for the some of the gefs trying to eject that energy from out west like the op did. Notice the lower heights over the Ohio valley compared to the 6z gefs.
  3. Say it with me... model Volatility what a monster storm . Get that pv to dig a bit and boom. But you can see in this run how far south the secondary wants to redevelop- down south.
  4. This is such an anomalous pattern going Into the 6-10 day timeframe. Can’t recall the last time seeing something like this.
  5. Anyone see @Rainshadow5.8 lately?!
  6. Here’s the 24 he snow mean. Good product showing certain target windows: phl &allentown
  7. Eps thorough next Saturday night: and after: great signal, probably the best the EPS snow mean has looked. So we’ll keep the hopes. Maybe we had our expectations move a little too fast.
  8. Here on the EPS, watch how the energy out west ejects east. Normally this would cut, but the block won’t let it. Dives under it here. It’s a good look. 10-11 days out ....🤷🏻‍♂️😂
  9. Like Tom said, weaker shortwaves ejecting are just getting shredded by the -NAO/ 50-50 low combo. Would love to see a PNA spike, to allow a shortwave to amplify a bit. With the block being modeled, suppression was always more of a worry than a cutter. It’s a delicate dance (isn’t it always for snow?! Grrr!!!).
  10. Yea, the northern stream and southern remain disjointed and messy. Northern stream just doesn’t dig enough, and southern wave can’t amplify. Need something stronger or better timing.
  11. Look on the bright side, we’re not in any bullseye’s 7-8 days away, so that’s Goff count for something right?! just gotta make it to next week, and we have some hope and chances
  12. Some better trends with the -NAO last few runs. Watch as the block and the traffic underneath it squash the SE ridge:
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