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Everything posted by Rainshadow6.6

  1. The GFS is going to have a good week. It started out with the best qpf for this event. Not often the GEFS nearly comes in last place by being too dry. It will come much closer than the other models with this min Barney shot tonight/Tuesday morning. The UKMET came in last with a dry bias forecast until the last run we evaluated before rain started again. This is the third event in a row in which a secondary low pumped up the qpf volume and there were more models/ensembles that were too dry than too wet. Speaking of good week for the GFS, it always had the Wednesday system south of
  2. Probably that less of a differential or maybe also a change in the prevailing wind direction?
  3. Reminds me of childhood in the Bronx.
  4. I don't have the money and who wants to move into that state now. But in terms of climate I'd find San Diego intriguing as far as gardening and golfing. Assuming they get precip there would be snow in the mountains during winter. This may be a climate era gone by, but Jim Eberwine who was stationed at San Clemente told me in winter he'd ski in the morning and golf in the afternoon the same day. Back to affordability, I do like the Williamsburg VA area. It doesn't seem like we catch a summer break here as much anymore (where have you gone summer of 2004?), so what is the summer benefit
  5. 00z/1st Ensemble Comparison 3/1-3/16. Avg normal 850mb temp -2C. Cold / Morch/ Then Colder GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill: NAO Day 13; PNA Day 13.5; AO Day 12 Recent Verification Tendency: more positive, NAO & AO, Spot On For PNA GEFS: (same) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Mar 2nd, (same) below normal anomalies Mar 1st thru Mar 2nd, (2 days shorter) above normal anomalies Mar 3rd, (3.5 days longer) below normal anomalies Mar 4th into Mar 8th, above normal anomalies later Mar 8th (peaks 3/11) thru Mar 16th. (end of run) GEPS: (same) Below
  6. 1.08” in Mount Laurel. Yeah see GFS is Blutarsky after today through the 15th with a pair of 72s.
  7. When a -NAO not a good thing when the block doesn’t give in time. This is still a forecast, the last low in this current event instead of becoming the 50/50 low for now retrogrades into southeast Canada and doesn’t get out of the way in time.
  8. For the Sunday starting event given it almost starts directly after 7 am on the GFS let's make tonight's 00z/28th the last one for this one. I love my mud wet. The wetter the better.
  9. @susqushawn, another example of a low forecasting thru the area and modeling qpf being more too dry than too wet. The EPS had quite the consistent and accurate qpf for PHL with this one and came in last. Ironically its snow forecast came in last. The too dry GFS came in last and being thermally challenged in a marginal snow situation does not hurt the GFS as far as PHL goes. It had no snow predicted on any runs. A couple of modeling trends that are holding this cold season. The ECMWF does not add value to snowfall forecasts with marginal snow scenarios. Yes we can always say it is
  10. In reality without the Plutonian GFS we'd be saying all the other models trended colder. The actual may be closer to the GFS than the others. But, it looks like the GFS is trending away from the coldest solutions it had. (It got even colder than this).
  11. 00z/27th Ensemble Comparison 2/27-3/14. Avg normal 850mb temp -2C. More Up Than Down First Half/More Down Than Up Second Half GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill: NAO Day 13.5; PNA Day 13.75; AO Day 12.5 Recent Verification Tendency: more positive, NAO & AO, Spot On For PNA GEFS: (same) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Mar 1st, (same) below normal anomalies Mar 1st thru Mar 2nd, above normal anomalies Mar 3rd thru Mar 5th, (new cold split) below normal anomalies Mar 6th, above normal anomalies Mar 7th thru Mar 14th (end of run). GEPS: (same)
  12. If it snowed or mixed with snow here at the start, I slept thru it.
  13. This was after I retired, so am assuming it is tied to the county's advisory warning criteria. Looks like sps/near or at advisory levels/warning/hecs, just say home.
  14. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-johnson-johnson-fd/u-s-fda-advisory-panel-votes-in-favor-of-johnson-johnsons-covid-19-vaccine-idUSKBN2AQ316
  15. Funny how seasons change. Last season this would have been a major thread.
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