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Rainshadow6.6

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Everything posted by Rainshadow6.6

  1. Sorry for being late, but I did the cooking today (let you know tomorrow how everyone is feeling). Happy Mother's Day!!!
  2. They tried this a couple of years ago and did not go thru with it. I am hoping for the same this time. It is nice.
  3. He has been pretty good through this pandemic. He has done a good job of not being either an eternal optimist or forever pessimist.
  4. On the one hand I want to get them started, on the other hand they will just sit there anyway.
  5. Probably could put them in; mull about this afternoon.
  6. I brought our vegetables in. No point in planting (again another May) until the middle of the week passes. 43F was our low.
  7. 00z/8th Ensemble Comparison 5/8-5/23. Normal 850mb temp around +9C. A colder week, a couple/few day warm up; then better expectation of colder vs warmer. GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill: NAO Day 9; PNA Day 10.5; AO Day 13.5 Recent Verification Tendency: AO, NAO more negative, PNA more positive (all colder) GEFS: (shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru May 9th, above normal anomalies May 10th, (colder longer) below normal anomalies into May 17th, above normal anomalies May 18th & May 19th, below normal anomalies May 20th thru May 23rd, backdo
  8. JamieO, I haven't really looked beyond the upcoming week. I have been remiss between working again and trying to get the garden ready. I was going to take a look tomorrow morning. It gets to the point though once the second half of May rolls around one almost prefers a cooler pattern to start prevailing.
  9. I guess it must be nor'easter Friday for the new GFS, I don't know if I would want to be in the ICON's camp the way it is this far out. Eventually if you forecast it enough times....
  10. The GFS was a lone wolf (yeah it was beyond day 4, but not just one run) with this massive nor'easter. No soup for it. 6 hrs earlier:
  11. Our vaccine progression is slowing, but we are still moving along. I know Israel and the U.S. are not the same, but it is great to hope that we will be close. Yes I changed the graph selection to logarithmic to show Israel's decline better or else it would look like a flat line. Their totally vaccinated percentage is close to 60%. BTW on Worldometer's "day" that ends at 8 pm, we have a chance to have the lowest number of new cases since 9/11. Friday is typically on their site the highest new case day of the week. Lately we have been barely above Thursday's total, so even 48K or 49K ne
  12. That was different the line merged instead of separating around Mount Laurel.
  13. Apologies I don't have rest of SEPA & DE numbers, this free fall is fantastic and should spread beyond the fall line.
  14. 00z/2nd Ensemble Comparison 5/2-5/17. Normal 850mb temp around +9C. A cold shot around Mother's Day Weekend, muddled look after that. GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill: NAO Day 8.5; PNA Day 10.5; AO Day 14 Recent Verification Tendency: All more negative GEFS: (shorter) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into May 5th, below normal anomalies May 5th into May 10th, gradient cold north, warm south May 10th into May 13th, below normal anomalies May 14th & 15th, above normal anomalies May 16th, near normal anomalies May 17th. (end of run) GEPS: (shorte
  15. I missed by a day comparing it to last April. Looks like the thread title would have been better named as CAN GGEM, new and improved. Yes the GFS scored better at 500mb, but did worse at 850mb. I pulled a couple of new GFS only bias graphs. Don't ask me why once it became operational the cold bias got worse at 850mb at initialization no less. I guess the good part about the new GFS (at least thru this chart), it's 850mb cold bias (still there) does not get worse with forecast time.
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