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Everything posted by Rainshadow5.8

  1. Maybe Thanksgiving Day we will get a complete cool season type event. There were convective elements and the latest version of the ECMWF is not shy when it comes to handing out pcpn with those. The GFS which has an outright dry bias caught a break as heavier showers missed PHL. At one time the GFS had a dry CFP. Even if PHL had an ILG type outcome, there were runs of the EC & EPS (and the perpetual wet GGEM) that would have been too wet. As it was the GEFS was not as dry as the OP and came closest, its first 1st place finish and the Op EC was last.
  2. This morning’s event was the first event this cold season that the European family of models did not come in first; in fact OP EC came in last.
  3. Perturbation 15 accounted for a chunk of this. It also accounted for more snow than all of the other members combined. 30 was in that neighborhood too.
  4. I guess this was a backend event? Still Blutarsky here.
  5. December 10th FDA meeting on Pfizer EUA. Today's NJ press conference said if/when approved 260,000 health care workers could be inoculated with their first shot by the end of the year.
  6. This is not a bad outcome (northern stream cold arrives first) as the previous full phasing would have Wreck Of Edmund Fitzgerald the track. Still bleeds into the Euro's bias (which seems has either come back or become worse) of hanging energy too far back. The GGEM is still full boar on the phasing. The GFS has its own progressive issues.
  7. @tombo82685, we can start the next event with the 12z run today. Please don't forget the 00z run on the just concluded event.
  8. 00z/23rd Ensemble Comparison 11/23-12/8. Avg 850mb temp 0C. GEFS: (same) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Nov 24th, (1.5 days longer) above normal anomalies Nov 25th into Nov 30th, (same duration) below normal anomalies Nov 30th into Dec 2nd; (colder) near normal anomalies Dec 2nd thru 4th; above normal anomalies Dec 5th into 6th; below normal anomalies Dec 7th; above normal anomalies last day Dec 8th. Pattern talked about above normal north of us, below normal south of us and we are near transition zone. GEPS: (ending faster) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Nov
  9. There will be bigger bangs for the thickness bucks and it is kind of still outside of go to time, but it does seem like December should start colder than normal. There is the complete phase (if it occurs) to drive the cold air southward. No man high to speak of, one of those cases where it will be colder relative to normal the farther aloft one gets than below 850mb.
  10. All I will see after December 6th or 7th are later sunsets. I will post images because Tom loves that.
  11. Interesting flip with November. While the tendency for warmer Novembers and warmer winters is there, what I found was that the "normal" sample size tended to even the spread. In warm Octobers, the near normal winters tended to be "warm normal" and vice versa. This was not the case with November temperatures. This November, the average temperature so far is 52.5F.
  12. I have had some Christmas lights on ever since the end of March. I put more out yesterday, but will wait until after Thanksgiving to light them.
  13. Getting there. We have only four minutes of afternoon sun to lose. The sun sets slightly later on the first day of astronomical winter and definitely later on Christmas Day than it did today.
  14. I would not consider this a higher than average confident outlook at this point because they are banking on a COD MJO progression through warmer phases. If we were in the second half of December, another story.
  15. It will get colder all things being equal. MJO question it does seem the models just like to COD at longer ranges, but like everything else skill (or any skill at all) falls off the table after day 9 or so.
  16. For the start of winter no, but as winter progresses yes. Since we are borderline into December at this point, I started the new thread and will lock this one. If anyone wants me to move a post over for continuity, let me know.
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