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Rainshadow5.8

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Everything posted by Rainshadow5.8

  1. Euro in a league by itself with a pronounced southern stream induced low for Thursday morning. Can’t recall the last time the Euro has been Dr. Yes when everyone else has been the knights of the no table. I would hedge against the Euro, but have been known to eat crow with a dash of salt and basil.
  2. 00z/23rd/ Normal 850mb temp around +9C. Last Evaluation of old GEFS. GEFS: Above normal 850mb temp anomalies thru the 30th (a nod to the EPS) and then below normal for the first full week of October, run ends on the 8th. GEPS: Above normal 850mb temp anomalies thru the 29th, below normal Sep 30th into Oct 6th and the above Oct 6th thru the 8th. EPS: Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Sep 30th. Below normal temps Sep 30th thru the end of its run on Oct 7. 00z/26th/ Normal 850mb temp around +9C. First Evaluation of new GEFS. GEFS: Above normal 850m
  3. I am so sorry I just saw this. I am not aware of one.
  4. More of an indication of the pattern changing than an indictment of the Euro. 96hrs to lock in the general 500mb is late in the forecast ball game.
  5. The Euro has been downgraded from king to one of the knights at the round table. I think the timing bias between the GFS (too fast) and Euro (too slow) has become larger with the latest upgrade(s). Thursday will either be a great day or it will eventually pour.
  6. I will message the picture taker. Thanks!
  7. I am going to use this photo from our hometown FB page as a metaphor that better days are ahead.
  8. 00z/18th GEFS: Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into the 22nd and then above normal anomalies the 22nd thru the 24th, below the 25th & 26th, toasty above the 27th-30th and then near/below Oct 1st-3rd, end of its run. GEFS Parallel: 5 day average 2m temps switches from below thru the 27th to above thru Oct 3rd. GEPS: Nearly exactly the same as the GEFS other than last day, Oct 3rd which is warmer than normal. EPS: Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into the 23rd, then above (no next weekend cool shot) thru September 30th. Below normal temps on Oct 1st & 2nd, end o
  9. That are better anomalies along the immediate west coast, What the SIPS does would not be good. The Atlantic looks like garbage for a -nao.
  10. Tonight is finally the radiational night for us, but dew points are higher. We might low side surprise guidance (well GFS 2m is a given), but Figlandia will likely stay warmer than 39.9F again.
  11. You know I am partial to Rickie. I don't know how much of the swing coach change is still responsible for his inconsistencies. He has missed some short putts. Wolf has that unique waggle. His tee shot and my three shots may be a contest.
  12. It is day 9. Well the run of dry weather will be coming to an end. How colder, TBD. In general this current air mass had a man high. This one regardless of strength is really more about being colder aloft than AOB 850mb. This air mass might need a self destruct sunshine day to have a lower max temp than what we just experienced this weekend.
  13. 41.5F this morning in Mount Laurel.
  14. I don't remember the NYC forecast with that one. The February storm we were suppose to be in the not as heavy zone, 4-8" ; 6-10" ; that lasted for only a few hours.
  15. I would think if you got some last night you will get it tonight. Meanwhile NAM boundary layer winds are in the same will they or wont they decouple range again tonight at PHL, so I will go with the 41 again here.
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