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Rainshadow5.8 last won the day on December 19 2020

Rainshadow5.8 had the most liked content!

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  • Location:
    Mount Laurel, NJ
  • Interests
    Golf and gardening and temperatures between 32F & 70F.

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  1. Below zero weather? Never heard of different categories. Shows how much I watch TV meteorologists (Sorry Glen ). I thought he was Patrick from Schitts Creek.
  2. I think the frost we had this week measured up to 0.1” of snow.
  3. Contrary to rumor, it does get cold and sometimes snows in winter.
  4. I have to thank you for teaching the teacher about this. Your knowledge was used. There is no easy way for me to annotate these charts and not have winter over. So if there are any questions, please let me know. I might have to do these attachments in chunks. Since it was NJ presentation I used Newark. In summary I started with the overview of the present nina, then went into the definition and cause of SSW(s), showed what one looked like graphically and on the maps, went over the historical impacts of SSW events this century and speculated what impact this SSW may or may not have for us
  5. We always get into the chicken vs egg discussions about ssta and atmospheric responses. So far this winter there has been a stability and almost a feedback mechanism continuing with both the NAO and WPO/EPO. The former's warm pool has made it easier for the -NAO ridge to stay stuck. The latter's tighter ssta thermal gradient has made it easier for enhanced jets to not retract. The EPS has the EPO going positive at the end of this month. They had it yesterday too. It is way beyond outlook skill, but were it to happen (and the -PNA also right, also beyond forecast skill) and we'd g
  6. I hope for Tom's sake it trends better than this prog. (Open sarcasm) I have never seen the GFS rush a cold pattern change before. (Close sarcasm). I realize the geps/gefs are nowhere near the Euro at the end of next week.
  7. He just proves that the next generation of meteorologists are so much ahead of the older generation of meteorologists.
  8. I started a new topic. It is good that I had to do it sooner than last season, made for a creative next time period topic. If you want me to move anything over, message me. Thanks!
  9. 00z/13th Ensemble Comparison 1/13-1/28. Avg normal 850mb temp -4C. EPO SWITCH IS NOW WITHIN MODELING SKILL TIME. CONFIDENT OF PATTERN CHANGE. GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Forecast Skill: NAO Day 13; PNA Day 8.5; AO Day 12; Recent Verification Tendency: All More Positive, Especially AO GEFS: (same) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jan 16th, (day shorter) below normal anomalies later Jan 16th thru Jan 20th, (0.5 longer) above normal anomalies Jan 21st into Jan 22nd, (dropped the warm night) below normal anomalies Jan 23rd thru Jan 28th. GEPS: (sa
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