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DebShadow23.0

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Everything posted by DebShadow23.0

  1. I still say props for @Chubbs for recognizing the event. Yes the "blue" did not accumulate to much. But one of three big lies (The check is in the mail, I gave at the office, rain changing to snow before ending) did occur. Now for the model performance. The GFS has been overforecasting qpf with anafrontal events since the day it was born and this event has not changed its bias. It came in last by being too wet. Conversely we have seen rather subdued or too southeast ECMWF solutions over correct at go time. The dollar cost average sometimes work (and may be a better approach to use for
  2. Part of it too is when you are overprecipitating, you are changing the rain to snow and lowering temperatures. Unless this is an outlier event for it, they have not corrected the anafrontal too wet bias for the GFS. As far as snowfall goes, they have made matters worse because the previous GFS used to have a warm bias at 2m and by correcting that error they degraded snowfall skills.
  3. 00z/21st Ensemble Comparison 1/21-2/5. Normal 850mb temp around -4C. Calling Out GEFS As Being Wrong/Too Cold For Week 2. Rest Of Feb Not Put To Bed Yet. The predicted PNA switch around January 26th-27th held, even on the GEFS. So perpetual below normal week 2 smacks of what it outlooked for the last week of December and how did that work. The EPO is outlooked to remain negative and its effects should be felt thru day 12 or so. For the other that have more of a thermal clue ensembles it comes down to the angle of the cold. The EPS is farthest west andf would be warmest.
  4. The Canadian and GFS ensembles from this morning leave the door open, the Euro not so much. (Looking at just anomalies).
  5. I hope that happens. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33111294/mlb-players-association-make-counteroffer-league-monday-meeting
  6. Observed snow vs go time run. Wet, snowy and too cold at 2m is no way to go thru life, GFS. Another win the battle, but lose the war event for the GFS.
  7. Echo the nice write-up. From a climatological perspective any given winter should average one 6 inch or greater event in Philadelphia. The true skill is determine from the plethora of 6 inch or more events all the models dish out like candy at Halloween which one is the one and not the Charlie Brown rocks.
  8. 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000% spot on.
  9. I don’t know how the ledge is suppose to work for me, but if we have more stinkin bare ground single number lows after this weekend, I am outta here.
  10. Mount Laurel 0.30” with about 2.5 hours of pity white rain.
  11. Maybe next season unless they decide to address this bias between now and then.
  12. This was one of the poorest NBM events of the season. I don't know exactly which models are in/out (I think the 3km nam is in), but too bullish on the changeover along I95.
  13. Yup. 33.6" predicted; 4.6" measured. About an 8:1 predicted, observed ratio.
  14. That would be an interesting research project. How many GFS runs this season have produced all-time daily snowfall records for any one location. I remember a 40-50" run for downeast Maine, but don't recall how many day(s) it was.
  15. The GFS has become better at signaling precipitation (or lack of) events, but as for the details, the road is closed for construction. If it didn’t generate 897mb lows in the medium/start of la la land range, the system would be forecast to be reaching Portugal by then.
  16. It did Okay with qpf out Charlie's way, but at PHL it predicted (average of last 7 sounding runs) 148% of what actually fell. PNE & VAY were about the same, so it was not an unrepresentative too low pcpn measurement for PHL.
  17. Just outside of day 8, we could have been more than halfway there......
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