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Everything posted by chescopawxman

  1. only model huggers allowed on ledge LOL!!...keep the faith I bet we all get very close to seasonal snow norms despite the warmth of the winter...even after the 2 potential storms this week - keep an eye on next week....plenty of storms and rumors of storms....
  2. If we get a little over 2" of the snow/IP mix we will be back to normal for the year....amazing for such a warm year in our current warming cycle....of course if the WXSIM is right we get buried Thursday with over a foot of snow....that of course will change....although my snow blower is still out for repair.....so
  3. For your entertainment....with 6z data the WXSIM has quite the wintry week in store - snow arriving by 930pm on Monday night - becoming briefly moderate around the 1am to 3am time frame then continuing lightly for much of the day on Tuesday as a mix of snow and sleet - total snow/IP accumulation by Wed AM about 2". Then it shows off and on mixed precip for Wed before heavy snow begins on Thursday around 7AM with falling temps through the day before snow tapers off by 10pm....but not before 14" to 18" of snow has fallen.
  4. No way this is an 8" storm north of the TPK....me suspects there is IP counted as snow here...
  5. with this track not buying what GFS is selling....it has really struggles with precip type this season....again that ZR depiction does not make sense more likely snow - IP or rain in my view.
  6. The Euro Ensemble by the end of the month remains consistent in NYC to what was commented on in the post on the 16th. The title. NYC (I-95 corridor) Snow Statement In fact it appears to have. 7 inches in the park by 00z Feb 1 This would mean we are well ahead of normal, pro-rated thru the date, with Feb the normally snowiest month and a pattern where I do think its going to snow in Feb and in March for that matter again Now I want you to take a seat here because I got good news and bad news And I want you to remember what I told you about 1978. and I want you to remember 19
  7. Have to like where we are at for a rare back to back winter event with snow on snow for many in this forum. Been a while....
  8. Still only 1 day all season with a temp below 20 degrees - Low this AM 2nd coldest at 20.5
  9. We are now below normal for seasonal snowfall for the 1st time since December 16th
  10. Charlie you can't tell me on those charts of actual data I posted comparing the 3 Chesco sites and PHL do not clearly show that PHL has warmth accelerating at a greater pace than the Chesco sites.....it really is quite clear - correct?? I have even highlighted the recent period (not old data) we are discussing....now after your... after the fact "correction" I guess you could make it look different but....it is what it is right?
  11. Why do these recent NWS Coop data sets over the last 20 years need what you term "proper adjustment? this is not old data....all 3 available Chester County sites are well aligned and do NOT show the significant warming like PHL. So I can follow your thinking...it appears you do not trust or find as valid the actual data recorded by these observers during the last several decades....hence why you believe you need to adjust them after the recording of the data? Because they are not showing the same rapid warming as the other stations in the pooled data....so in your view they must be discounted
  12. How many locations are still above normal for seasonal snow to date? Still hanging on here in Western Chesco with 0.8" above normal.....unfortunately if you are a snow weenie....we will be falling below for the 1st time since 12/16 this week - keep the faith!!
  13. Hi Charlie - I found another relatively long term Chester County site closer to your area of Chester County....Octoraro Lake with 4 complete decades of data (1979 to Present)....again as you can see in the analysis data between Coatesville / West Chester and now Octoraro are in incredible agreement on both actual readings and on the degree of warming - which is significantly less than the PHL data is showing
  14. Fortunately in my data set used for the analysis there are no changes or holes in any of the data. Both Coatesville and West Chester are complete data sets with 365 or 366 daily data sets for every year since 1894. Seems to be a statistical improbability that both stations could be malfunctioning at exactly the same level thru over 120 years of data....I will layer in some additional counties with long term data to see if there is a similar significant reduction in warming when compared to the PHL heat island.
  15. I have gone back and analyzed long running data now for both long term Chester County sites West Chester PA and Coatesville PA. Clearly West Chester and Coatesville are well aligned for 12 decades....and almost exactly the same over the last 2 decades....however, PHL is just as clearly demonstrating the heat island problem as they begin to accelerate away - not at all consistent.
  16. Charlie can you answer me this - how many and exactly which sites in your pooled data were made on mercury thermometers before "modern digital measurements - what year did these "modern" measurements begin? How did you determine that WT Gordon or Howard Pyle or the Philadelphia Electric company used inadequate shelters in the Coatesville NWS data set? The data was at the time clearly verified and stamped as such on the handwritten obs sheet by whatever branch of the weather service was in charge at the time. My analysis includes the "Old" Coatesville NWS COOP data and no KMQS AWOS data. The di
  17. I went back and updated the analysis for the last 12 decades now including the Philadelphia data from 1900-1949 (this represents raw unadjusted data with no after the fact adjustments) comparing data for the last 120 years from 1900 thru 2019. The key finding is that the suspected rapid PHL heat island impact and problems are growing at an even greater rate than ever imagined....the difference between the heat island near Philadelphia and the burbs using actual NWS observed temps is telling....Just look at how quickly the lines are diverging and you will see where this is going. Just look at
  18. Can you layer in the actual PHL temp (not anomaly)on top of both the ENANT and KMQS data? Thanks!
  19. Good stuff! no changes in siting or station hardware used....all are aligned during our current warming cycle...
  20. No surprises here ( at least to me) but likely not going to be embraced by some on this board (hello Tom)....but detailed analysis of KMQS and East Nantmeal Township yield a statistically significant P-value (meaning it is the exactly the same and a statistical impossibility by chance that any readings between these sites and observations can be anything but the same and valid according to statistical probabilities) so readings are scientifically proven as valid for both East Nantmeal Twp in Chester County PA and the NWS COOP observers from 1983 to 2007 and now adding the KMQS AWOS obs from 20
  21. How and what does "get our act together" mean? I have not put out a forecast yet - one quick note you keep saying KQMS it is KMQS that is the GO Carlson Airport in Chester County. Also to be clear 2010-2019 was 53.06 for Chester County the delta from PHL has never been greater then it was in this last decade with a difference of +4.29 degrees...just take a peek at the analysis I have produced and you can see the variance will only get greater as we allow the PHL heat island obs to run away from the field. I certainly expect the PHL heat island to continue it's acceleration to even greater and
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