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chescopawxman

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chescopawxman last won the day on July 10 2020

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About chescopawxman

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    ChescoWx
  • Birthday 12/17/1963

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    www.chescowx.com

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    East Nantmeal Township, Chester County PA 685 ft ASL on the Welsh Mountain Anticline

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  1. I have gone back and analyzed long running data now for both long term Chester County sites West Chester PA and Coatesville PA. Clearly West Chester and Coatesville are well aligned for 12 decades....and almost exactly the same over the last 2 decades....however, PHL is just as clearly demonstrating the heat island problem as they begin to accelerate away - not at all consistent.
  2. Charlie can you answer me this - how many and exactly which sites in your pooled data were made on mercury thermometers before "modern digital measurements - what year did these "modern" measurements begin? How did you determine that WT Gordon or Howard Pyle or the Philadelphia Electric company used inadequate shelters in the Coatesville NWS data set? The data was at the time clearly verified and stamped as such on the handwritten obs sheet by whatever branch of the weather service was in charge at the time. My analysis includes the "Old" Coatesville NWS COOP data and no KMQS AWOS data. The di
  3. I went back and updated the analysis for the last 12 decades now including the Philadelphia data from 1900-1949 (this represents raw unadjusted data with no after the fact adjustments) comparing data for the last 120 years from 1900 thru 2019. The key finding is that the suspected rapid PHL heat island impact and problems are growing at an even greater rate than ever imagined....the difference between the heat island near Philadelphia and the burbs using actual NWS observed temps is telling....Just look at how quickly the lines are diverging and you will see where this is going. Just look at
  4. Can you layer in the actual PHL temp (not anomaly)on top of both the ENANT and KMQS data? Thanks!
  5. Good stuff! no changes in siting or station hardware used....all are aligned during our current warming cycle...
  6. No surprises here ( at least to me) but likely not going to be embraced by some on this board (hello Tom)....but detailed analysis of KMQS and East Nantmeal Township yield a statistically significant P-value (meaning it is the exactly the same and a statistical impossibility by chance that any readings between these sites and observations can be anything but the same and valid according to statistical probabilities) so readings are scientifically proven as valid for both East Nantmeal Twp in Chester County PA and the NWS COOP observers from 1983 to 2007 and now adding the KMQS AWOS obs from 20
  7. How and what does "get our act together" mean? I have not put out a forecast yet - one quick note you keep saying KQMS it is KMQS that is the GO Carlson Airport in Chester County. Also to be clear 2010-2019 was 53.06 for Chester County the delta from PHL has never been greater then it was in this last decade with a difference of +4.29 degrees...just take a peek at the analysis I have produced and you can see the variance will only get greater as we allow the PHL heat island obs to run away from the field. I certainly expect the PHL heat island to continue it's acceleration to even greater and
  8. No one of course "knows what to expect" as unfortunately both mid and long range forecasting and longer term climate projections/forecasts are quite far from exact science as we all know. Based on my research and analysis I forecast normal cyclical cooling to start likely during the later half of this current decade 2020-29 - with this decade ending up quite close to temps we saw in the 2010-2019 decade. Then the cooling cycle should kick in during the back half 2025-2029 of this decade. That makes the most sense based on my analysis. Also, I will have to go back at check but KMQS is an AWOS s
  9. Ran a comparison between my Davis VP - Ambient WS-2902A - Tempest and KMQS
  10. I agree my charts support the above 100% the last 3 decades have warmed...now when does the next cooling cycle start? This decade next decade? Also, what is the source of the Coatesville data you show. There was a NWS observer Joe Steiner who recorded data for Western Chesco from 1984 to 2007. Then no observers between 2007 and till October 2016??
  11. I wonder if back in the 1950's they forecast the next 3 decades would be coldest in recorded obs history? No one knows the future only God of course....that said I have little doubt climate is cyclical warm - cold - rinse repeat. I am not a climate denier I embrace the fact that climate is and always will be changing....therefore I am confident we will see colder trends in future years.....although if major city airport heat island airports like PHL are included and weighted heavily that will skew the data. Hence why it is important to keep site of rural obs like the Chester County data set to
  12. You know my thoughts on this - you can't just invalidate real data - don't like going back and making changes after the fact based on reanalysis and pooled data that you highlight. I trust the NWS observers did their jobs well - you can't invalidate data because folks don't agree with the data as recorded IMHO
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