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Everything posted by anowal01

  1. Looking for ensemble support at this range, otherwise the OP runs are just eye candy. But, more winning...current event isn't even over, we've got another short term thread up for Monday, and tracking something day 7. This February just keeps on giving.
  2. My takeway from the 18Z runs in so far is they are backing off the warmth from 12Z...plenty more to come...will 12Z ultimately be correct, however? Certainly possible...
  3. I believe both are correct, they are on 2 different pages of the NWS site. From the Mount Holly webpage, if you click the "Weather Story" you get your graphic with the ranges. Click the "Winter Weather" further down and you get the Boch image...both are time stamped this afternoon...
  4. It's got 36 more hours to get it right...that's an eternity for the NAM. Slight move is a win IMHO.
  5. Monmouth County is ALWAYS the answer to the question of where to chase. I haven't looked at the hourlies but if the solution is CMC-esque I am guessing that Monmouth County is the beneficiary of frozen falling later Friday from the coastal to inflate those totals.
  6. Seriously, thank you (and everyone) for your in depth description of the physics involved. On a lighter note, when my kids ask me at the dinner table "what will change that will make it snow" and I regurgitate verbatim what I have learned using this vernacular, they say ok Dad, but you're just makin' that stuff up, those aren't real words.
  7. Whew, I will sleep so much better tonite having the NAM in our corner. The NAM on an island was the mother of all red flags after all. I suspect snow lovers will now flock to this thread in epic numbers.
  8. Change the thread title from "wintry pecipitation" to "snowstorm" and watch the participation skyrocket. It's all about the headlines.
  9. Mitchnick in by a minute...might wanna update the title if goin multi day. Good luck. 4 outta 7 days plowin and saltin at the shore, feel like I'm playing with house money already. #WinningWinter2021
  10. I won't be making it so as not to be accused of kiss of death but next short term thread might be best as a Thurs thru Sun multi wave single thread given as referenced above each successive wave frozen qpf outcome will likely depend on previous. Could then have individual OBS threads...
  11. 37 / 21 NE KACY...Americans and Europeans love my location, Canadians and Germans hate my location...we'll soon know...gl all!
  12. Looks like your Dover hotel is about to get a repeat reservation...
  13. ICON and Canadian models say it's coming through the living room for the shore south of Monmouth County and the brakes aren't working. I took my 2"-4" like a man earlier this week while watching 20"-30" fall elsewhere, unsure how long I'll be able to keep up the "Mr. Nice Guy" schtick this weekend. On the bright side, I think any concerns about QPF suppression for the forecast area are off the table at this point. Questions now are NW extent of precip, SE extent of changeover line, and jackpot stripe.
  14. Little ticks ok...but we don't want the past 12 hour trend to keep playing catch up for another 24 hours at the same rate of change or everyone south of PA Turnpike sees rain on models by Saturday. The dump truck overshooting the top of the driveway and coming right in the living room is no bueno. Clustering on ensembles is a good sign for a tightening spread hopefully.
  15. FIFY, and that's coming from someone whose location would have me rooting for that coastal fronto bad selfishly.
  16. It's good to be tracking something again...it's been over 24 hours since many have seen flakes.
  17. @RCostello Seems like possibly a classic case to me of global models picking up on a signal for an event based on data that is in sparsely sampled areas. Once better sampling of energy coming ashore of the Pacific is better sampled, we see a significant change in modeling around the 72 hour mark. Not saying that is what is happening here, just saying it would explain why it is happening that models showed one thing at 5 days and something different now at 3.
  18. So what's the HECS consensus? Possible NJ state record puts it in historic territory. But given that the highest snowfalls missed the most populous metro areas DC - BOS I'm thinking the RSI/NESIS score on this storm isn't through the roof. I'm leaning high end MECS overall.
  19. Light snow still east of KACY after about a fresh half inch overnite. No, the southeastern parts of the forecast area weren't jackpotted, but it was snowing at 1 pm Sunday and it's still snowing 1 pm Wednesday...haven't seen the sun since Saturday. Plenty of rain and sleet in between, but enough frozen to warrant plowing/salting work for 3 straight nites. This was a win region wide, congrats North Jersey and NE PA.
  20. 50 50 refers to 50 degrees west longitude and 50 degrees north latitude...relative to the northern mid atlantic, its a good geographic location for certain meteorological features that support blocking (slowing storms from moving out too quickly which prevents significant precipitation amounts) and a flow of cold air (for a snow vs rain outcome). We often have a storm "miss" our area but fantasize how it is ok because it's gonna setup the next one by building the right features in the 50 50 region.
  21. so with 24 hrs til precip starts ilg has a model spread of basically 3" to 23"...got it thx
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