anowal01

Thank you, hopefully not an overly prophetic title. This one has the holiday weekend rule going for it so everyone (including YOU East Coast trough) avoid too much model run-to-run negativity!

2022 has been good for us shore folk so far, but models presently favoring frozen west, shore likely to be battered by winds, talk about it...GO!

Late with my OBS again, but sitting in a plow truck for 8 hours has that result. 4:50 am, Garden State Parkway, Bass River Township, I suspect this was under a pretty good band.

Egg Harbor is the new Colts Neck I think the concern at the shore for this one is that the early morning band stays west and we mix or winds up just off the coast and we are snow holed. But, at least from Long Beach Island south, we are playing with house money.

I feel like 5+ years ago...maybe it was more like 10...at 48 hours you could set goal posts for a storm with the GFS being south and east and sheared, the NAM overamped and showing extreme amounts of QPF and the most wound up western solution, and just ride the Euro as the most likely model that verifies. Now, it seems like all the models bounce around and every run a different pair of models sets the goal posts with another model coming closest to the forecast that most closely verifies. I don't think I'm telling anyone that is following this storm the past few days that at this point,

A little late with this observation but thought the picture was worth it...clearing to the west at 5 pm NE of ACY.

Looking for ensemble support at this range, otherwise the OP runs are just eye candy. But, more winning...current event isn't even over, we've got another short term thread up for Monday, and tracking something day 7. This February just keeps on giving.

My takeway from the 18Z runs in so far is they are backing off the warmth from 12Z...plenty more to come...will 12Z ultimately be correct, however? Certainly possible...

I believe both are correct, they are on 2 different pages of the NWS site. From the Mount Holly webpage, if you click the "Weather Story" you get your graphic with the ranges. Click the "Winter Weather" further down and you get the Boch image...both are time stamped this afternoon...

It's got 36 more hours to get it right...that's an eternity for the NAM. Slight move is a win IMHO.

Monmouth County is ALWAYS the answer to the question of where to chase. I haven't looked at the hourlies but if the solution is CMC-esque I am guessing that Monmouth County is the beneficiary of frozen falling later Friday from the coastal to inflate those totals.

Seriously, thank you (and everyone) for your in depth description of the physics involved. On a lighter note, when my kids ask me at the dinner table "what will change that will make it snow" and I regurgitate verbatim what I have learned using this vernacular, they say ok Dad, but you're just makin' that stuff up, those aren't real words.

Whew, I will sleep so much better tonite having the NAM in our corner. The NAM on an island was the mother of all red flags after all. I suspect snow lovers will now flock to this thread in epic numbers.

Change the thread title from "wintry pecipitation" to "snowstorm" and watch the participation skyrocket. It's all about the headlines.

Based on Allsnow GFS maps looks like GFS agrees.