anowal01

Looking for ensemble support at this range, otherwise the OP runs are just eye candy. But, more winning...current event isn't even over, we've got another short term thread up for Monday, and tracking something day 7. This February just keeps on giving.

My takeway from the 18Z runs in so far is they are backing off the warmth from 12Z...plenty more to come...will 12Z ultimately be correct, however? Certainly possible...

I believe both are correct, they are on 2 different pages of the NWS site. From the Mount Holly webpage, if you click the "Weather Story" you get your graphic with the ranges. Click the "Winter Weather" further down and you get the Boch image...both are time stamped this afternoon...

It's got 36 more hours to get it right...that's an eternity for the NAM. Slight move is a win IMHO.

Monmouth County is ALWAYS the answer to the question of where to chase. I haven't looked at the hourlies but if the solution is CMC-esque I am guessing that Monmouth County is the beneficiary of frozen falling later Friday from the coastal to inflate those totals.

Seriously, thank you (and everyone) for your in depth description of the physics involved. On a lighter note, when my kids ask me at the dinner table "what will change that will make it snow" and I regurgitate verbatim what I have learned using this vernacular, they say ok Dad, but you're just makin' that stuff up, those aren't real words.

Whew, I will sleep so much better tonite having the NAM in our corner. The NAM on an island was the mother of all red flags after all. I suspect snow lovers will now flock to this thread in epic numbers.

Change the thread title from "wintry pecipitation" to "snowstorm" and watch the participation skyrocket. It's all about the headlines.

Based on Allsnow GFS maps looks like GFS agrees.

NAM and RGEM say all frozen in NJ except for Cape May County.

Mitchnick in by a minute...might wanna update the title if goin multi day. Good luck. 4 outta 7 days plowin and saltin at the shore, feel like I'm playing with house money already. #WinningWinter2021

I won't be making it so as not to be accused of kiss of death but next short term thread might be best as a Thurs thru Sun multi wave single thread given as referenced above each successive wave frozen qpf outcome will likely depend on previous. Could then have individual OBS threads...

37 / 21 NE KACY...Americans and Europeans love my location, Canadians and Germans hate my location...we'll soon know...gl all!

Looks like your Dover hotel is about to get a repeat reservation...

ICON and Canadian models say it's coming through the living room for the shore south of Monmouth County and the brakes aren't working. I took my 2"-4" like a man earlier this week while watching 20"-30" fall elsewhere, unsure how long I'll be able to keep up the "Mr. Nice Guy" schtick this weekend. On the bright side, I think any concerns about QPF suppression for the forecast area are off the table at this point. Questions now are NW extent of precip, SE extent of changeover line, and jackpot stripe.