Chubbs

Several events were marginal here: more north and less south. Noticeable difference in Feb driving 5 miles in either direction.

Last nights euro initialization and previous 2 00z runs. Euro was tucked in too far west. Ended up closer to the gfs prog.

Interesting chart from Amy Butler's twitter (go there for more info): SSWs vs enso and qbo. We have a good shot at being in the most favorable quadrant for SSW - La Nina and easterly qbo. Added the current qbo plot below. Easterly at 30 mb, but as Amy mentions has been hung up recently and hasn't descended to 50 mb yet. Note however that an SSW (or two) in that quadrant usually gives us below normal snow, and none of the SSW winters in that quadrant are significantly above average snowwise.

Be glad to, but have to pry book away from my wife she loves it.

No, would have been tough today in the wind

Nice morning, just scattered clouds, no wind, mild - may try to squeeze in some fishing before the winds pick up.

GEFS is different than the latest euro weekly. Keeps vortex strong through the end of Nov - we'll see who blinks

2.41" - 59.5F

Latest euro weekly has shifted weaker with PV - potentially an early start to winter if right https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind

Quite a light show on approach from the south - like a mid-summer storm edit: 0.45" - one of the better storms this year

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 538 PM EDT MON OCT 25 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PHILADELPHIA... THE TEMPERATURE AT THE PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ROSE TO 78 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON, ESTABLISHING A NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR OCTOBER 25 WAS 76 DEGREES SET IN 1993, 2001 AND 2010. $$ IOVINO

75.2 high, Octoraro Lake getting some color

61.5 high ytday, 53.8 was the midnight low, 58.1 and foggy now

Still big differences between models in how and where coastal organizes. Fun times on the board if this is a winter storm prelude.

Also hit 39 - 39.4