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Chubbs last won the day on September 30

Chubbs had the most liked content!

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    New London, Pa, Elevation - 298'

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  1. In a weak el nino, that shot would be delayed 2 weeks. Make the putt?
  2. September @69.4 is the only month this year that would have changed from above--->below with the 1990-2020 averages. Unfortunately even the most recent past doesn't fully capture our new "normal".
  3. Yeah, no complaints about the upcoming week - just about perfect for any outdoor activity
  4. Per his thread - Increased tendency for Urals ridging in recent ninas the driving force
  5. My interpretation is NCEP site uses model runs from the past 10 days (40 runs) and TT is more recent since it only uses the last 3 days (12 runs). Note that the seasonal models include many ensemble members, like the NCEP site or more, which is why they tend to look like an "average" nina. The smaller subset of runs at TT allows for more variability. Unless it has found a nut, would expect TT cfs to trend back to the seasonal models with time.
  6. The ncep link is also an ensemble (see below). I don't think it means much at this point other than colder weather can't be ruled out. Forecasts are from initial conditions of the last 30 days, with 4 runs from each day. Forecast ensembles consist of 40 members from initial a period of 10 days. The 1st ensemble (E1) is from the earliest 10 days, the 2nd ensemble (E2) from the second earliest 10 days, and 3rd ensemble (E3) from the latest 10 days.
  7. 06 GEFS has a flip to AO+/NAO+ by the end of Oct - we'll see
  8. 39 - another night with very light frost
  9. FWIW February (Jan also to a lesser extent) has gotten colder in CFS.
  10. Jan 25 2000 was a classic - the radar watchers weren't hallucinating
  11. Back from the shore - 1.25" in the gauge from monday and today.
  12. Tweet from Brian Brettschneider shows range of outcomes in 14 strongest ninas since 1925. https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1316923903189655553
  13. Strathmere/Marmora tornado Garden State Parkway mile 24 - EF1.
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