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Chubbs

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Chubbs last won the day on September 20

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    New London, Pa, Elevation - 298'

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  1. Same idea, convection further west hurts in a Nina, helps in a nino. Only one of many factors.
  2. Yes the jury is still out. Currently the La Nina is strongest in the E Pac which favors ridging over the WUS. If this Pac SSTR pattern persisted we could have a good winter. Unfortunately most seasonal modeling indicates that the coolest waters will shift to the central Pac which increases odds of SE ridging. Below is the current SST and the Cansips model through Feb
  3. 38, 37, 37 the past 3 nights. Within 0.5 on the digital. Very similar frost pattern in the grass (mostly non-frost)
  4. Good call. Very similar to yesterday, patchy light frost - 37
  5. Have to admit I was thinking 09/10 when I posted - an interesting paper in any case
  6. Can't say I follow all of this, but evidently we can also thank the tropical upper stratosphere for 2009. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18299-7.pdf
  7. Patchy light frost (mostly non frost on grass)- Good thing we brought the sensitive plants in ytday
  8. Only because solar was mentioned above and we are just past a solar minimum like 2009 Agree, need to start with nina years for analogs this year.
  9. Stars were in alignment in 09/10, not seeing any similarities so far other than solar.
  10. We are almost in exactly the same spot in the solar cycle as 2009, just past the bottom. However ENSO this year is completely different, Nina vs Nino.
  11. Our background state the last 10 winters + La Nina could produce a strong SE ridge and N to S temperature gradient. Would feel better about this winter with some more latitude.
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