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Mitchg

NWS Meteorologist
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Mitchg last won the day on November 18 2020

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About Mitchg

  • Birthday 12/18/1986

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    Endicott, NY

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  1. That OP GFS run went off the deep edge with QPF. GEFS mean more in line with CMC.
  2. I really hope it's not a one day cutter with 50's and rain that melts all the snow then sends us back to cold.
  3. That's exactly what the 06Z Euro control showed. Overall I'm slightly worried about both ways still. That looks like a nice WAA thump so your rates further south may be higher.
  4. Impressive WAA thump for you all that UKMET run. Think it shifted too far north overall. Primary to just south of PIT is my best personal guess now.
  5. My rule of thumb is 6+ on the EPS mean and you should get something decent out the next 15 days. Now they are a few outliers in the group of members so it will be hard for the 00z set overnight to match the mean of this run.
  6. New GFS did show some improvement with the 12/15 event with regards to the southern/eastern track bias.
  7. Going to be nowhere close to this ledge all year after December. Still may have to whiff cirrus next week while mother nature feeds you all steak and lobster dinners. Cold and dry is the worst.
  8. That euro control run is a train wreck. seriously though these split flow patterns give the models fits. I wouldn't really trust anything till a few days out.
  9. Communication issue with models for those awaiting the 12Z GFS.
  10. The last time AVP ended up with more snow than SYR for a winter was 1932-33. To rub salt in everyone wounds I could post pics of the snow piles that go way above my head in front of my house. The 40 inches melted from mid December, compacted Christmas and absorbed 2 inches of rain. Then a light icing an additional 4 inches fell on top of it in January. So that is a general 3 inches of white ice depth now that should last till at least Thursday here being on the ground for a month total. It's weird though as some places that got runoff now have bare ground and other spots still have 6 of white
  11. Yeah, this a tough trend the last few days with the modeling picking up on the MJO now heading through the death phases. I think the balance with the - NAO may be enough my way for some action ( even I'm susceptible to cutters with this) but I suspect it will take several weeks to shift the storm track south again ( Mid Feb when the MJO ends it's death tour). Really sucked the storm track shifted too far south the last week or so when you can get away with normal temps for snow. 13-14 did have a SE ridge but it was week and really offset by the - EPO. The look today almost shifts the pacific
  12. BTW: I'm very happy this year Tombo snow wise. Snow piles well above my head in my front yard.
  13. Early next week has quite a bit more ridge over the western Atlantic compared to the suppressed system late this week.
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