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NWS Meteorologist
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Mitchg last won the day on November 18 2020

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About Mitchg

  • Birthday 12/18/1986

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    Endicott, NY

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  1. Hope everyone is doing well. My main winter analog right now is 2011-12. Just going through things now, the PDO is almost -2 which is a major red flag coupled with a non east based moderate nina. All of that equals western trough. I use an expected ENSO, QBO and PDO analog for what little that is worth.
  2. Ensemble means ticking upward Thursday. Of course the ground is fried now so the snow no one wants would be closer to a 5:1 ratio.
  3. Probably more like accumulate 3 here tonight then melt 6 tomorrow as it hits 40 in afternoon. Ready to move on to this event.
  4. Yes, this has trended horribly here the past few days ago 8-12 to just light snow and almost all ice and melting of snow tomorrow with temps well above freezing for a time. Booo.
  5. I think potential is present on both the Tuesday and Friday systems next week to trend south a bit. This weekend I think gets a little stronger. Tuesday Jackpot 95 and points a bit NW while Friday jackpot near BGM. Just my personal 2 cents/gut.
  6. Buyer beware with the freezing rain maps only take about 35% of the freezing rain QPF as freezing rain especially with higher rainfall rates. So .98 would be 1/4-1/2 inch ice. Also the freezing rain NWS criteria maps posted earlier are correct.
  7. So many little systems favors things not amping too much. So much going on and remember the last one EC had the snow axis in DC and it ended up much further north we'll see.
  8. Ok, which wennie ran the euro control today? That ensemble was insane.
  9. RGEM/HRDPS and the WRF NMM seem to be doing the best now in my area. Of course two different outcomes for PHI.
  10. HRRR has been garbage overnight my way. Not sure what that means further south if anything.
  11. As for spot for folks to snow chase I'd pick MPO.
  12. Even a cluster west/northwest of me all the way up in BGM.
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