PRINCETON ANGLER

It’s been a confounding *ss backwards January. After so many years of worshiping King Euro and looking at the GFS like the red-headed step-child we’ve been seeing the GFS riding high and the Euro wearing the red-headed wig. The problem is, this weenie is waiting for the earth to return to its normal axis with a resurgent Euro. All model confidence beyond three days is lost.

Thanks Tony. Please no 93/94 redo. Even though I’m retired and would only have to watch from home, the mayhem with accidents, tree damage and power loss far outweigh the phenomena. 12Z GFS is kicking the warmup can out of the 1st week of Feb, with 850s and surface well below normal. At this point it looks like January will finish several degrees below normal. Don’t remember a substantially below average January in a while. I seem to recall a couple that were split very cold/torch or torch/very cold and averaged out near normal, but the cold this month has been pretty consis

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Probably prefer torch.

Call mental health services… we’ve got a jumper.

We’ve moved from mangled flakes to the real thing. 33

Didn’t know the HRRR had a useful range…

Would it be fair to say that our storm threats have been driven primarily by northern stream short waves diving south and maybe phasing before sliding NE? If so, and IIRC, there used to be an accepted belief that the GFS did better with northern stream systems. I’m fishing for a reason that the GFS has been smoking the Euro like a cheap cigar this month. Thoughts?

With model input changing all the time, I don’t know if this question is relevant… Is anyone aware of model performance data by ENSO state? Maybe the GFS is better during Nina’s.

NINA FTW.

These images are proof that nature will always win. A lesson we need.

PNA switch to minus coincides with the NAO going positive around 1/27. We could be ripe for a storm as part of the reset. Models seem to be hinting at the possibility. The start of February starting to look torchy.

Looks quite progressive overall for now. Hard to imagine the QPF being advertised by the Euro.

Bottomed out at -14 in Cowansville, Quebec. WC -25 At Lake Eden in Vermont -30 for a low.

Agree totally on this. Was out today at -5ish and no wind. Not saying you don’t have to dress warm, but with no wind, not really that bad. Same with Summer. Dew points @70+ are torturous and are not adequately reflected in the heat index. I’ll take -5 every day over 95 and 70 DP.