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ACwx

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ACwx last won the day on September 15

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  1. I know you've been beating this drum for a while now, but I like the greater shades of warmth stacked up against the West Coast currently compared to 2016 and 2017. Didn't realize the difference was that drastic. Fingers crossed it will stay that way to an extent.
  2. Pretty sure that orange tint is the fall foliage progressing further along in the Appalachians up into interior New England than it is along the coast. Neat to see that difference from space.
  3. 1.18" so far at KACY, dropping into the upper 50s this morning with winds gusting to 30-35mph. Just a fantastic morning to have the windows open and listen to the rain.
  4. Great discussion. I'm sure we'll look back on this throughout the upcoming winter to see how it verified. Honestly ever since La Nina began presenting itself, I've had an extremely unscientific opinion about this winter - that it will buck conventional wisdom and be average / decent instead of something resembling a repeat of last year. Why? The past few years have proven that winter forecasts (from TV or otherwise) made in October / November are basically useless. Whatever conventional wisdom and old seasonal forecasting methods there were seem to have gone right out the window. Of cours
  5. Maybe this is more frequent than it seems to me, but CONUS is exceptionally cloud-free today
  6. Clearing up pretty quickly west-to-east this morning. Some ripples / waves showing up along the cloud tops if you look closely.
  7. Exactly!!! There's only a small range of temps / dew point combos to create that feeling but we usually hit it this time of year with pre-frontal air masses. By far the muggiest air I've ever felt in early fall was 3 years ago, it was October 9 but we had a 77/74 reading by midnight and as the night went on it kept getting warmer! https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/nj/egg-harbor-township/KACY/date/2017-10-9 As far as the rain goes last night, narrowly missed the brunt of it here with a 0.41" total at KACY
  8. These dew points wouldn't feel so bad if it was July, but in late September it feels pretty nasty especially after the refreshing air mass last week. Makes for awful sleeping weather. Thankful at least for the cold front incoming on Wednesday.
  9. A nor'easter rounding the base of a trough and cold air building in Canada? La La Land but this pattern is more exciting by early October than much of last winter was as a whole.
  10. Would it be too much to ask for this look in February? 12z GFS, Euro and Canadian are all in agreement for a significant month-end trough to plow into the eastern U.S.
  11. Nice chart. I'd expect them to be remarkably similar since they're only 50-ish miles apart, only thing that might influence ACY more is the ocean temps (although it's interesting that the PHL heat island effect isn't more evident here). The November negative anomalies stick out, as well as the December warmth (December NEVER seems cold anymore, and I know that's not the big snow month anyway but it seems like we're pulling teeth to get a substantial snow in that month). Also March is only 0.9, considering how warm 2012 was that's a pretty "chilly" number. It'll be interesting to see if th
  12. Personally I'd rather have a cool September and a warm October than the other way around. The cooling climo temps in October would sort of balance out any relatively warm air mass, whereas if you get a warm muggy air mass in September it basically just feels like mid-summer again and we don't need any more of that (well maybe the figs do)
  13. 12z Euro doubles down on Teddy, 958mb the frame before this. Pretty much every ensemble member brings him close to New England.
  14. Some interesting solutions starting to show up for Teddy after he passes Bermuda. The past couple of runs, the Euro has been showing an upper-level low digging down and swinging Teddy back into Atlantic Canada. The 00z run swung it even further south into Maine. A decent chunk of the Euro ensembles and even some of the UKmet ensembles show a similar solution. The GFS wants nothing to do with this and punts Teddy right out to sea. Still a while away and models don't handle upper-level lows too well anyway so I'm sure there will be tons of changes, but just from the fact of how strong Teddy
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