icicleman

where the wild trout are

Precipitation Analysis estimate (www.weather.gov/phi/rainfall-monitoring) for Birdsboro was .17, so 3.1 inches seems reasonable

GIF of radar from the storm, a little banding

I agree, precipitation analysis is very even for the region. You can see the effect that multiple overnight bands had from montco northeast into northern jersey, but the differences are not much

Exploding fasting group? They must be eating something...

Looks like that map doesn't start with OBS (unlike the dot maps, which are all OBS). They start with multi-sensor (radar, satellite) precip data to get "an unbiased background to which an observation-driven adjustment can be applied" and then adjust it using "climatological information, atmospheric profile data, and snow/rain/ice/graupel mixing ratios provided by direct observations or NWP analyses." https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/technology/pdf/Proposal_for_National_Snowfall_Analysis_Phase_II.pdf

I don't have a snow map, but here's the precip map, and it makes me think of a question. I guess elevation doesn't vary much in the affected area (for this storm). I'm not really sure, beyond the obvious "snowing too lightly to accumulate" at the fringes, what else might make snow accumulation not follow the precip map?

I think this might be the same data, but in a graphical, clickable format? https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/lsrmap.html?sid=phi

Let's hope we're not entering a period like 100 years ago (not that I can personally recall it). From 1921-1950, PHL only had 55 3+ inch snowfalls in that 30 year period. Things got better, we had 71 from 1951-1980, 63 from 1971-2000 and 70 from 1991-2020.

And in addition to the serious cold weather, the Eagles won the NFL championship at Franklin Field that month too. Otherwise, the month was normal for Philadelphia.

The Precipitation Analysis also includes radar (https://www.weather.gov/nerfc/MultiSensorPrecipitation). It seems like it runs pretty close to CoCoRaHS, but the graphics are easy to scan. I think I saw a page somewhere about an algorithm that also included satellite data (in addition to radar and gauges), but it does not look as if that is used yet. Thanks.

For rainfall, do you think CoCoRaHS is superior (or equivalent) to the radar-blended NWS Precipitation Analysis? (https://www.weather.gov/phi/rainfall-monitoring)

Is there a known reliable correlation (warmer/colder, wetter/drier, etc) between a year's arctic sea ice extent and philly-area weather? A quick Google search shows links (like https://www.pnas.org/content/109/11/4074) indicating that low ice means cold and snowy, but I also see some links showing the opposite (like https://www.jstor.org/stable/26224931)

Maybe I need some more coffee 😢, but here's me, Joe Schmo weather follower, trying to parse that: A- "seasonal-scale conditions might be right for a disrupted season ahead" what is "a disrupted season" ? what is the value of "might" (25% , 50% 75 ???) B- "a weak vortex now isn't a sign" of whatever he meant by A how "weak" ? how long does "now" last? is a "sign" a prediction? C- "this is not to say" B or A (above) to me, he has already not said it

Not a met, but don't forget the other direction. Might need to monitor deep sea currents and circulation and geothermal activity and whatever else is "going on under the ground." (And there's also butterfly wings, although that seems solvable.)