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Everything posted by jmister

  1. From 74 to 82 in 2 hours here in Cherry Hill. About 40/60 ratio of sun/clouds.
  2. Slicked over driveway and walkway in Cherry Hill. Light ZR, 27. Radar looks relatively juiced east of the Delaware so we may be in for a bit of a nasty evening this way.
  3. Big flakes battling steady rain here in western Cherry Hill (3 miles east of Ben Franklin bridge). 33.8
  4. Encouraged to see a pickup of snow here out my window an on the radar across much of Central and Southern NJ. Hoping it continues to fill/enhance.
  5. Yep, I am getting light snow right now too. Radar is anemic though so I'm surprised we're getting much of anything here.
  6. The 12z HRRR, while upping the amount of precip/snow in the PHL area, also looks to have a poor handle on the current precipitation in SNJ (brown regions indicate over-modeled precipitation).
  7. Another key to watch for this morning is low placement. One of these models is not like the other and happens to give PHL a lot less precipitation:
  8. So much disagreement, so little time! Time for the radar watching games especially for those of us in Philly, immediate burbs, and SNJ/DE. With the HRRR being so pessimistic for this area, I look to find any discrepancies in precipitation extent and then can decide if the rest of the run has a a clue or not. I am a little encouraged to see some more actual precipitation being picked up near DE. Interestingly, HRRR is lacking the heavier returns into NY/MA. Hard to make a call just from this but keep an eye on the trends.
  9. The HRRR is a bit lacking in the eastern extent of the precipitation: jmmweather.com/hrrr
  10. Sure. The image is just the reflectivity of the actual radar minus the simulated reflectivity from the HRRR model data valid at the same time. Basically this: Minus this: Equals this: Qualitatively, it shows the model (HRRR) is under-doing the precipitation where it's green. So this may have implications further into the forecast. It's more useful as we get closer to start time or for watching meso-banding.
  11. Obligatory shameless plug for my tool to help ease your radar hallucinations. www.jmmweather.com/hrrr Anyway, 25/10 here in Cherry Hill. Good luck to all!
  12. Sleet started about 15 minutes ago after almost 6" snow! Great few hours of winter!
  13. Just WOW. Closing in on 4". Not sure if I've ever seen these rates sustained like this. I keep thinking the changeover to sleet is imminent, but the CC shows the mix line tries moving north but gets beat back down again. I'm sure it'll be sleet soon though. 1216201629.mp4
  14. For what it's worth, the HRRR nailed the heavy snow this side of the Delaware river.
  15. Ridiculous snow right now. Added another inch in the last 30 minutes. Closing in on 2.5". The neighbor kids are loving it almost as much as I am. SNOW.mp4
  16. Overperforming here in Cherry Hill! Was on the roads 30 minutes ago and luckily it wasn't too bad. Lots of slush.
  17. Hey all. It's that time of year again to whip out the HRRR radar analysis. www.jmmweather.com/hrrr when it's not broken...
  18. So, what's the chance PHL gets more than the 0.3" total for last season tomorrow? I would have said a sure thing, but man that NW shift is relentless...
  19. Yep, this one looks like the storm I dreamed of in my 10 winters in State College and never got. My streak of missing out on double digit storms continues (not since Feb-2010 in State College). I'd totally take a trip there to chase, but with all this crap going on it's not happening this time. I guess the silver lining is that it's only mid December. Not like we were staring at our only shot in mid Feb.
  20. That NW correction within the 3-4 day lead is almost inevitable and it's not failing this time around either! One lesson from living in State College from 2007 to 2017 is that the NW trend can reverse in the 24-36 hours leading up to the event. It screwed us out of many great ones that PHL cashed in on (2016 was the biggie...got maybe 8" after 20+ being advertised). Maybe the last minute SE adjustment will pull through for this event too? Can only hope...
  21. This Euro run is a pretty good analog to a certain President's Day event... Euro: PD II: To me, runs like this are bitter-sweet because they probably can't get any better haha.
  22. I know, I know...but it just feels great having snow maps to post again!
  23. Closer look at the SPC's 1630 outlook Tornado (2%, 5%, 10%)
  24. Mesoscale Discussion 1673 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 Areas affected...the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 031906Z - 032100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be needed this afternoon as a damaging wind and tornado threat increases. DISCUSSION...A broad area of shower activity extends from the Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and New York amid a belt of strong mid-level flow. Areas south and east of this activity have slowly destabilized
  25. Thanks for that link. Now with that you can see in hi-def most of the region has been upgraded to ENH tomorrow: ' ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gusts (55-65 mph) resulting in scattered wind damage are probable for portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. ...The Northeast... A strong cold front is forecast to shift across the U.S./Canada border and move quickly eastward across New England, while progressing more slowly southeastward across the Mid Atlantic region and southward across the central Appalachians. Isolated genera
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