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Everything posted by tombo82685

  1. yup, but we need to get this inside 8 days to really start getting interesting. It's nice to look at, but it's all in fantasy land right now
  2. Can't really complain with the looks on all the ens from about dec 5th onward. If that pattern plays out, we will have chances.
  3. Agreed, but that also isn't an instant process. Usually it trickles down, can see how the +NAM is slowly working down from up top.
  4. As you can imagine, big flip in weeklies for first 3 weeks that look nino. Last 3 weeks look more nina, with generally an above normal looking flow week 1 +7 week 2 +2 week 3 +1 week 4 +2 week 5 +4 week 6 +4
  5. I haven’t looked at the eps but I would bet that low pressure placement is very misleading. Would think looking at that H5 with how progressive it is with kicker behind it lots are a good bit offshore with a few big monster storms that cut or hug the coast that lead to the low pressure placement there. I would like to see a bit more northern stream phase with a better ridge out west to bring a better airmass In, but you can’t have to much phase or west it goes. So the general thread the needle
  6. Yea I said it yesterday, blue doesn't automatically mean cold, it also means low pressure and storminess.
  7. Yea you get more ridging into Ak that will accelerate the process of cooling Canada down
  8. Still no signs yet of a weakening of the SPV. Heading into record territory in terms of strength this week and next
  9. Probably the best eps run in weeks. Canada is still torched to start the day 10 period but cools off by the end. Have to continue to watch those blues near AK. Out by Aleutians is fine, we don't want them backing into AK. You can see a really nice -wnao signal on here. Just unfortunately to start it's blocking in pac puke
  10. Yup, it’s legit concern. That needs to get out for a good cold drain to get into Canada
  11. Still to much troughing into AK for the weekend runs on the ens. So pac puke still getting absorbed into the pattern despite the +pna. Need to get more amplitude and push the ridging up towards AK more. Weekend runs kind of flattened out the ridge out west a bit. Granted we are cooler than the rest of the nation, but really need to get those blues out of AK to cut off the pac puke.
  12. Not on the weekends. Most people are working from home. Lunch break go outside....
  13. O I know it’s common, but I wonder how common it is around here. Like up in Canada and Alaska I could see it big time.
  14. MEH, I don't get how sunlight or lack of it turns people into eeeyores. Repeat after me THERE IS ATLEAST 8 HOURS OF SUNLIGHT DURING THE DAY!!! If you can't go out and enjoy the sun in 8 hours I don't know what to tell you. It's not like we live in Alaska where they won't even see the sun till January, sheesh
  15. Yea I have noticed the mjo wave is holding its own pretty good so far. This would be my guess looking at OLR plots on mjo path. Be curious to see if we get an adjustment in ens towards warmer if the current mjo wave holds stronger, because 3-6 in dec are a torch. As long as the wave is weak it will not have a huge impact but could turn ens a bit warmer down the road. I guess we will see.
  16. Looking at the ens, the pattern doesn't really improve to me till the 5th and onward. The cold shot to start the month is there but the ens have always been consistent with pac puke still invading as the AK trough is still on going. It's going to take time to scour out that airmass. Plus, what isn't helping is the big cold dome, the SPV that was over AK moves into Siberia. Be nice to get that to belly up into the trough and move into Canada. Also, remember, below normal hgts doesn't automatically mean cold, it can also just depict storminess and areas of low pressure. What people are alluding
  17. That and well it’s past 10 days away. Look how much this has changed this week. Let’s get this inside 8 days
  18. Yea you really can't complain at all with that look. Just H5 wise it's getting close to pants tent worthy but still far away. You have Aleutian low, +pna, some ENAO, and Urals ridging. The Aleutian low and Urals ridge should put some pressure on the PV. Once we flush the pac puke out it will start getting better airmass wise.
  19. Ooo so you mean normal early December climo. Who would of thought lol
  20. Yea, while the h5 pattern has trended better it’s yet to be seen what type of airmass we can tap into and if it’s cold enough for some frozen.
  21. 0z gefs pattern from Nov 30th onward looks pretty darn good to my eyes for maybe some fun. Active southern stream with +pna to supply cold, how deep the cold is the question. EPS continue to adjust towards more PNA in longer range and have been getting colder in that timeframe
  22. Euro 11/20 0z: .3 11/20 12z: .53 11/21 0z: .98 11/21 12z: .39 11/22 0z: .7 11/22 12z: .83 11/23 0z: .62 eps 11/20 0z: .33 11/20 12z: .42 11/21 0z: .53 11/21 12z: .51 11/22 0z: .66 11/22 12z: .59 11/23 0z: .57
  23. GEFS continue to play the +pna theme with Aleutian trough. Be nice to see the eps go to this look. Even has some enao action too
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