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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/02/2022 in all areas

  1. this is what I'm going with on my first guess. Def respect the trend, but all dry air on nw side and models tendency to over do it there. Would like to get another 30 mile shift nw for city to feel comfortable about 4+
    8 points
  2. Not sure if anyone caught the 11PM news, but from a risk / planning perspective the forecast given by 6ABC was pretty awful in my opinion. The only thing that was mentioned was "a few snow showers along the coast" with no talk of model analysis or potential accumulations of any kind. Then the 7-day forecast showed partly sunny for Monday. I don't expect (nor do I want) TV meteorologists to flip-flop based on each cycle of models, but even before the 00z models tonight there was a pretty clear shift north with the snow axis today. Why not at least mention the possibility of accumulating sn
    7 points
  3. Let’s be honest, you wouldn’t call it a winter 😂😂
    6 points
  4. Wound up just going with Millville. We’ll see what happens.
    5 points
  5. Would be interested to get feedback on this, I got a good look at the data coming in this morning and have come up with these thoughts: First thing I noticed is if you look very closely, SST's within 10 miles or so of the NJ coast appear very warm (at least on this Tidbits map). This will help to increase moisture in the heaviest bands that occur Monday afternoon. Second thing was to focus on the dry air - looking at GFS 700mb here. Notice from Philly north and west, the 700mb winds are coming from a drier direction. Dews at the surface are going to be in the mid-20s with winds comin
    5 points
  6. 5 points
  7. My hesitation is the surface low and h5 placement have not nudged N. So we're relying on an expanding precip field in a low RH atmosphere NW of 95. I have no clue what will happen, but even this weenie is very suspect of accumulation imby unless h5 really does go even more neg tilt and/or features nudge N at 12z
    4 points
  8. That was quite the insightful thread title by @Chubbs .
    4 points
  9. SREFS with a considerable northwest shift at the 3" and 6" levels from 15z to 21z: Granted this is the SREF output, but a northwest shift of this magnitude is close to being significant if the trend holds:
    4 points
  10. 3 points
  11. Just decided I’m going to my parents house in sea isle for this storm. Let’s go.0
    3 points
  12. The ups and downs of watching each model run is insane. My bar is 4”. If I get 4 inches that’s a legit HECS for me. My son and I can get out and have some fun in the snow hopefully.
    3 points
  13. If I can’t get real snow- at least I enjoy the digital snow! Who knows how it’s going to turn out but it sure is fun to track. And I promise these gfs runs are not being done out of my basement
    3 points
  14. Could you go through the site and mark for us the other 385? Thanks in advance.
    2 points
  15. After looking at the 12z models. I would WAG that this NBM map is close to what is in the bank that will fall and the EPS is more what could occur if the low tracks closer, less dry air gets entrained, etc. A one foot axis of snow is doable, but I think the models/ensembles tend to carpet bomb/spread this too much, the axis will be narrower. Final (wrong) answer.
    2 points
  16. And I thought only Denver has these types of forecasts
    2 points
  17. If I only knew how to find the GIF. Anyway talk about the lack of a scientific approach. I don't know which models go into this. Just wondering how good this consensus will work. Wow talk about a split TDSGFS over 6" for PHL and ICON/UKMET/NAM pitch a shutout. GGEM toward the GFS. Usually I95 is the rain/snow line, this one it could be the snow/no snow.
    2 points
  18. Gonna do a little chase tomorrow if I have time, I'm working off Delaware Avenue, maybe can get out early and take a drive. I agree with you, but well see.
    2 points
  19. What do I want? P08......99% chance we get P05...lol
    2 points
  20. Holy Bird migration. Leaving Rehobeth beach this am and saw probably tens of thousands of these black birds? Hard to see, but each black spec is a bird.
    2 points
  21. The 2" EPS it will measure guarantee (we hope) has made it to @susqushawn's house.
    2 points
  22. I don't know geographically where the dagger is going to be, but this does remind me of Feb '89 because the surface winds are predicted to be north vs northeast and that will funnel in colder, drier air. So yeah the cut-off is going to be sharp and painful.
    2 points
  23. In 24 hours Salisbury went from being too north to possibly being too south.
    2 points
  24. Seems a touch more energy diving in the backside. I noticed that on nam too. If that happens could help pump heights a hair more and actually get some accumulation to PHL
    2 points
  25. They'll sharpen the gradient mainly by increasing amounts in DE+SJ
    2 points
  26. Double jet plus the northern entrance region has backed its way to Pittsburgh.
    2 points
  27. Are we really going to have surprise accumulating snow in Center City? I moved back here after six years in California a few months ago and guys, I need this
    2 points
  28. 2 points
  29. 0z hrrr is way amped-this thing is headed north to you guys. Wow
    2 points
  30. After that last gfs run- I don’t want to track anymore. That simply was as good as it gets for me. Check please before the inevitable disappointment lol
    2 points
  31. RGEM is the only one that is generous to Philly; the other ones are south and east.
    1 point
  32. Is there any of the hi res guidance that doesn’t lean south and/or doesn’t have sharp accumulation cutoff? Definitely not feeling any overperform vibe yet outside of the Winter StormWatch area
    1 point
  33. It will be a dew point bust or a snowfall bust, they both won't be right.
    1 point
  34. I don’t know. Your being farther west is an additional geographic issue. But I am not saying no. The off sounding runs aside, until the sounding runs themselves stop backing, you will still gain, but not as much as farther east.
    1 point
  35. Keep backing up that truck…I’ll let you know when to stop Tony
    1 point
  36. This popped up in my timeline from today in 2014. Little did I know the air mass to follow would be the event that would launch "Polar Vortex" into the public consciousness forever. Nice to see the good ol' NWS maps haha
    1 point
  37. Horrible news. Just her name alone brought a smile to my face. Her (kind, genuine) persona was on a different level. Something this Earth lacks. We need more Betty White’s in this world.
    1 point
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