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Showing content with the highest reputation on 11/24/2021 in all areas

  1. This is a pretty textbook mid atl early season snow setup if we can get some amplitude in the pattern. You have a +pna/-nao couplet. How stout the +pna is will amplify the pattern to allow pieces of energy to dive down on backside. The -nao will block in the 50/50 low providing the cold air and allowing things to slow down. Looking at it from H5, Main player to me is that 50/50 low and +pna how fast the 50/50 low moves out gives room for this to turn the corner. if it slower to move out, it can chear or crush the system to the south. How amplified the +pna is will allow this to slow
    5 points
  2. I counted atleast 6 flakes, but not more than 10. And I didn't included myself. 😁
    5 points
  3. Below normal temperature anomalies that reach the Barney purple level. Or what I drank every time our children put on that show.
    4 points
  4. Down to 21.6 here. Just woke up after 17 hours in bed. Moderna booster. Much better today.
    4 points
  5. 4 points
  6. I could be dead in my grave and I would still head slap you
    3 points
  7. 26 degrees this morning, equals the low for the season. Meatheads were enjoying their am stroll, just wait till they smell the aroma of fried turkey tomorrow.
    3 points
  8. Had a half inch yesterday morning. This time next week should be covered hopefully
    3 points
  9. I was similar to chesco last night, 26. It was dropping fast, then leveled off. Weird, about 1130 temp went from 28.6 to 31.5 by 12:15. I'm not sure what that was all about. Then it started to fall off again.
    3 points
  10. Lowville, ny 11/15- .8 11/19 .3 11/22 .5 11/26 1 11/28-29 1.7 Total: 4.3
    2 points
  11. 1st 20's of the season at PHL For the airport location (1940) the mean date of the 1st 20's is 11/15. Min date - 10/11/1964 Max date - 1/4/2016 Since 2000 the mean 1st date is 11/25
    2 points
  12. GEFS 06z snow plume - getting a little more interested
    2 points
  13. Euro day 6 snowdepth. Two parts - DC+philly 1st, Bos+NYC 2nd.
    2 points
  14. I don't see its own outlooked teleconnections and this thermal pattern both verifying. One of them is going to be wrong.
    2 points
  15. EPS generally .5-1" from 295 on nw. Still not to enthused on something big. There is a weak signal for sne with coastal but op run was a major outlier amongst eps for sne
    1 point
  16. Tom will slap me for this, unless he's too busy with his new upstate NY crew. Sell out. End of NAM run has northern stream diving farther S, good trajectory. Would most likely "clip" us. Root for something similar to this...
    1 point
  17. Out here too. Boy, things sure went well for NE in a hurry. I'd be pretty psyched if I was up there right now, save the coastal areas.
    1 point
  18. Looks like a good chance to see some flakes flying on Sunday. Would be a festive feel
    1 point
  19. WXSIM with the eagerly awaited 1st snow forecast of the year! Sunday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of snow and rain likely in the afternoon. High 39. Wind east-southeast around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch.
    1 point
  20. Yes it is the GEFS, but the EPS & GEPS have it too. You want a -NAO and you want that -NAO to relax (or you get sheared other things being equal). I still would like to see the GGEM to come on board. That being said, all the cold weather prior one is not going to lose as much snow to a warm ground as one could this time of year. The sun angle sucks, so it won't matter.
    1 point
  21. I see you've already started reminiscing fondly of your childrens' early years.
    1 point
  22. Strat driven from what I can see. Another wave 2 hit that aligns SPV for cold shot post day 10. Problem is, we are relying on day 10+ onward strat forecast. Watch how we get two areas of warming start. One by Ak, the other near Baffin island. Then can see how SPV starts to tilt more infavor of cold shot aiming into US if extrapolated. This would be my guess as to what it's picking up on.
    1 point
  23. If I catch runs like this. First it has to be a sounding run and second it has to be within day 8 or less (when skill starts with the GFS). This way I won't clog threads with images like these. Go......
    1 point
  24. Starts off a bit warm for sepa, but cold crashes in.. Sunday night into Monday.
    1 point
  25. Maybe some upper teens tonight? Could be a close call in some normally colder spots. Already down to 28 here.
    1 point
  26. euro 11/23 0z: .31 11/23 12z: .17 11/24 0z: .05 11/24 12z: .05 11/25 0z: .27 11/25 12z: .26 eps 11/23 0z: .2 11/23 12z: .15 11/24 0z: .14 11/24 12z: .1 11/25 0z: .19 11/25 12z: .27
    1 point
  27. 18z icon. Big low northeast of Maine provides cold air/convergence before lifting out. Clipper with good track for our area. Strong low dropping in behind clipper to amplify. Plausible for an early local snow, but going to take a couple of days to determine strength and sort out details.
    1 point
  28. EPS continues to shunt the warmth.. pretty stout cold pool available in western Canada that keeps getting directed eastward.
    1 point
  29. Had another round of flurries on dog walk about 3 30 ish. Some broken flakes and graupel Officially going with a trace of snow 11/23/2021 😀
    1 point
  30. Looks like a few flurries flying currently in Gilbertsville. I may hallucinating but radar says it’s possible.
    1 point
  31. Has it been dry there too like here? If it is similar to here, they wouldn't have had much precip to have snow cover anyway.
    1 point
  32. Pretty Sunset. Picture doesn’t do it justice.
    1 point
  33. I had a chance to golf with Tom today before he heads to the Great Forever White North. We made a couple of additions to the original outlook and ran en ensemble snowfall model. I blame Tony for golfing the day after his second J&J vaccine shot. Additions: PHL will have two (2) single number lows this season. PHL will have one day Dec-Feb with a max temp greater than 65F. Snowfall for the season 16"...
    1 point
  34. Bottomed out at 28.2 this morning, beautiful night for a walk.
    1 point
  35. Been an wild year for severe weather for PA/NJ/NY, especially with regards to tornadoes.
    1 point
  36. This one was just 5 miles from where I was on Saturday
    1 point
  37. Here’s a picture of the furniture that had been blown off our deck on Saturday.
    1 point
  38. My parents neighborhood (Islip Terrace, NY) was hit hard yesterday. I know they were under a tornado warning but appears to be downburst wind damage.
    1 point
  39. I happened to be in NY yesterday, a little east of JFK. I hadn’t paid any attention to the weather, figured it would be a nice but boring fall day, and was surprised when a severe thunderstorm watch notification came in via my smartphone app. I was eventually in a severe warning and the storm produced pea size hail (pic below). This was a welcome diversion, as I was in NY to see my 100-year-old Grandma who is unfortunately under hospice care at home… SPC has a bunch of high wind reports out in Suffolk County, including a 79 mph mesonet report in East Moriches! My mother told me there was
    1 point
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