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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/12/2021 in all areas

  1. Big question, will I need to pick up my Fasnacht order a day early to avoid the storm on Tuesday?
    8 points
  2. Last year vs this year. I'd say say we had a nice run!
    6 points
  3. 3 points
  4. 3 points
  5. Whether we like it or not, the cold air is at minimum overperforming across the Plains of North America. This Arctic High, TPV and cold will of course modify with each day, but it's still rather impacting. If *any* of that spills down the eastern side of the Appalachians, it's not gonna be all rain...
    3 points
  6. You know it was one heck of an ice storm winter when (me) the person doing stormdata is saying ice accumulations were “rather light” only around one quarter inch or less occurred.
    3 points
  7. I am not forecasting an outcome, just outlining how we get there.
    3 points
  8. Sorry for being a bit late, but my final measurement here in Smithville, NJ (about 4 miles NE of ACY) is 4.9”
    3 points
  9. Gfs pushing 70 in KPHL after next weekend
    2 points
  10. 2-4 snow mean for next thurs from i95 nw. 1-2 south of there. Can certainly see the warmer risk. Hope we can trend airmass better.
    2 points
  11. and then we fall into the teens Tuesday night into Wed. AM. these wild swings with ice are reminiscent of 1994, although my memory is a little cloudy on all the details of that winter. I do remember the serious ice but I also remember the warm shots just as much as the cold.
    2 points
  12. It's interesting because with a slightly slower arrival of the TPV/less confluence, yeah Monday is much warmer now. But hanging back more, just not too much like CMC, helps with suppressing the flow when the Mon N-Tue storm arrives. Also, the more undercutting that happens with the block, the more suppressed the flow will be next week in general. And as Tom said, the s/w being less negatively tilted is also going to help keep very warm solutions from coming to fruition. What a mess!
    2 points
  13. This is really more complicated than we've been discussing too because there is also the lower heights upstream of the block that will try to dig on the west side. Anytime you have heights trying to lower on either side of a block that is descending SE from Canada, you are going to see large run-to-run shifts. So, yes, models did relax the better confluence from longer ranges; but, as we are getting closer there is more detail to sort out. It may not exactly be a straight loss of confluence anymore, but a complex block with undercutting. Timing is a big problem with this week's storms, as you
    2 points
  14. The 12z UKMET TPV evolution is largely like the GFS/GEFS/Icon. Next up the ECMWF/EPS, then we determine if the CMC is an outlier or not.
    2 points
  15. Was just gonna post this. I think it’s sleet though? it trended exactly how hm is showing the tpv trending, farther south
    2 points
  16. 2 points
  17. Didn't essentially every model have yesterday's second wave hitting us at 72 hours or less, and looked where it ended up. This year, it ain't over until it's literally all over. And post 48 hrs, anything is possible.
    2 points
  18. He’s spot on I’ve seen the cmc this year handle tpv lows horribly all year
    2 points
  19. Last 3 GEFS... check out that lobe north of the Great Lakes... what @hm2 was talking about.
    2 points
  20. But remember the confluence / lower heights underneath block trend I was talking about. GFS did add more of that under the block this run, despite the inland runner outcome. This is not a done deal yet.
    2 points
  21. The icon is ugly to say the least. Yikes.
    2 points
  22. The sub-inversion layer warms sufficiently by midnight / early Sunday on the new NAM that it would be mostly super cooled drops. But anyway, during Sat PM, there is also some ascent / moisture in the upper levels too with a jet streak assist. So to make matters more complicated, there could be some type of seeding, despite the dry layer in between! lol. Maybe it's best to go with a "spotty mix" and call it a day lol.
    2 points
  23. Yea I would think so as long as this one doesn’t slow down and go on roofs. Has to come soon after Tuesday system
    2 points
  24. This is one that you can read into it what you want and no one can entirely be wrong. First the premise of a 1,2 inverted trof events failed. The second wave went south. The earlier model runs I believe they all had the two snow outcome. In fact the European I know had more snow with today and less with Thursday. So it was not until the last two sounding runs that the models gave up on today. So some of these are two event solutions (not one) that Tom & I could not parse because they bled into each other on the ensembles. So that being said, being too wet and too snowy is not
    2 points
  25. I think I'm ready for spring after next week, especially if we end up with a few cold rainers by the time we get to next weekend. Then, just one week left in Feb. and by March I cheer on early spring (and get SMARCHED instead)
    2 points
  26. updated this eve, had to take the southern fellas off minus de beaches
    2 points
  27. Yep, kind of sucks though it could be one of those front end then deluge types where it kills the pack
    1 point
  28. Eps did show show a shift south south from 6z.
    1 point
  29. I'll take that look with the front end it had at hour 150
    1 point
  30. It could be a step towards that, yes, and a cluster analysis would help answer that question. But I would say the GEFS mean largely looks like the ICON over the CMC. Time for some UKMET/ECMWF guidance...
    1 point
  31. Para is still sleet/ice event it ticked south of 6z
    1 point
  32. Icon is colder. Doesn’t get Phl out of the 20’s Tuesday
    1 point
  33. I don't know, is it really that hard to envision the boundary moving 100 miles s/se in 84 hours with modelling this season? Considering as well that it is in the process of shifting south prior to this map.
    1 point
  34. THANK YOU so very much. THANK YOU so very much for your responses!!
    1 point
  35. Can we throw the 06z GFS with its 66 hours of consecutive freezing rain over the cliff?
    1 point
  36. Yea, I think models are way overhyping the low level cold. I bet This will end up being like one of those half hour glaze to rainers. Far nw who knows. Btw Unlike some of you March is my favorite winter month. Spring and snow at the same time. Maybe with all the blocking we’ve had it decides to revisit one more time during bowling season and we get some crazy closed off ULL. Heh I can dream
    1 point
  37. I prefer whichever one does more to preserve the snowpack. Could use an icestorm to clean some of the dead limbs out of the ash trees to. Makes the trees smaller for when I have to drop them.
    1 point
  38. dogs love snow & they're certainly getting their fix the past 12 days
    1 point
  39. stole another winter golf outing yesterday, back down to Harbor Pines, upper 30's but no wind & decent amount of sun so no issues with the cold, it is nice to be able to tee off at 12:30 & have no problems finishing before it's dark the Egg Harbor Twp. landscape will look a little different this morning
    1 point
  40. 1 point
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