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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/02/2018 in all areas

  1. Looking at the main players the last 48 hours, the most variable is the ATL side, as was noted earlier. A positive trend is the ridging towards Greenland. This helps slow the 50/50 low, and coupled with the stout, and very stable as modeled, +PNA, should maintain a steady NW flow over SE Canada, and thus confluence and a developing jet streak in the same vicinity as it meets the SW flow from our developing EC trough. A clipper like low is a saving grace as it negates a high sliding offshore from bringing a return southerly flow. We had concerns over that high positioning 3 days a
    4 points
  2. Thats a stout N atl ridge out there. Atl side of things is all backed up like a toilet in the gigi household after a 7 fishes dinner
    3 points
  3. 50% snow/sleet storm 45% suppression 5% Shawn and I drive the bus off a cliff
    3 points
  4. Im done looking at models on my own, what everyone is providing here is way more informative. You people are awsome!
    3 points
  5. So I wanted to do a recap on the 12z euro run today and compare it to the one on Friday that should a great hit and what needs to change. Above is the forecast from fridays 12z run and compared to todays run. These are both for this coming friday. 2 big things that stand out that need to be changed. Starters, the s/w in the southwest (x1) needs to get out faster, the slower it is the longer we push this back and the staler the airmass gets. 2nd, there is a little spoke of energy (x2) that rotates around the tpv and comes south. This is what brings the -epo block with it and the associated
    2 points
  6. If this occurs I will buy you all the beer you guys want for a year
    2 points
  7. I told you earlier. We may delay this until Christmas
    2 points
  8. Just so good to have one snowstorm in the books, tracking another one and it’s only 12/2. All great winters start like this
    2 points
  9. Perhaps if we kick the can some more we could tracking this on Christmas. Speaking of kicking the can, check the 12z GEFS at the end of the run. Torch is gone
    2 points
  10. I think the issue is since this is the first potential big winter storm to track (not counting the Nov event) people are getting all worked up...This event is 7+ days away. It is still going to change a ton going forward....I mentioned a day or so ago that this is a big timing issue storm. Gotta thread multiple needles. I’m usually the one getting worked up fellas, R-E-L-A-X haha.
    2 points
  11. Yeah, sad when a day with only a little late day rain sounds like a winner. Morning window of good weather allowed us (and the masses) to get our Christmas tree.
    2 points
  12. H5 loop from Chubbs 12/11/1960 storm when dinosaurs still roamed the earth. Much more rigorous closed low sustained itself the whole way across. +NAO. Cool comp
    2 points
  13. Now that the last piles of snow have melted, I have made the FINAL lawn mowing and bagging of leaves for 2018. The lawn mowers are in their winter sleeping positions and have begun their hibernation till Spring. The snow blower has now been officially moved to the front of my shed for easy access for when the snow-mageddon forecasts are predicted.
    2 points
  14. Sounds good, I figured 7 days out is like a year out, even 4 days out a lot.changes.I dont want us to congratulate Charlotte that's all,haha
    1 point
  15. this whole setup is giving me a headache
    1 point
  16. 1 point
  17. Drops to 924. Not too shabby. Cat 5 ocean blizzard.
    1 point
  18. 1 point
  19. Now were back to Sunday night into Monday.
    1 point
  20. you can see the increased ridging ahead of vort and stronger vort in the southwest
    1 point
  21. Biggest run until 0z run in the morning
    1 point
  22. If you phase in that trailing wave though, you would actually pull in a better airmass too
    1 point
  23. It can start Sunday night for you and 7:01 am Monday here right after my last mid that week .
    1 point
  24. Sunday night would actually be pretty nice for me if this hit then. Wouldn't have to kill my whole sunday plowing if it snows. Sunday night I would be able to enjoy it and build some gigimen
    1 point
  25. With 0.60" in the books right now and what is expected to fall the rest of the day, it could be either EPS or SREF (which is quietly not doing badly this season) that wins it and in a stunning reversal of fortune the too wet WFS or WEFS that comes in last place.
    1 point
  26. hit the beer early today was what I thought he was saying
    1 point
  27. Oh your time is coming soon. The moment I see you post an hr 84 NAM map I know the chips are all in 😁
    1 point
  28. I feel like we’ve been tracking this system forever, and according to the gfs, it’s still 7.5 days away....
    1 point
  29. No more mowing and wishing it was snowing.
    1 point
  30. Stale air or not. Filthy vort passes.
    1 point
  31. Got it, seems like no matter how cold it may be, that rain/snow line always is the game changer. Rain seems to always creeps its way in.
    1 point
  32. I dont think its fair to blast the GFS for changing that much in a forecast that is over 7 days away.
    1 point
  33. Hang in their guys. I got this. Never, ever feared a cutter. It will come back north, they always do. Question is, can it get back this far north. That’s the only question that is left
    1 point
  34. It is our family tradition to go to Varners every year. Love that place 👍
    1 point
  35. Archambault. I think your profound post from a few days ago still holds. Someone in the Eastern third of the U.S. will get a major winter storm out of this.
    1 point
  36. Maybe just find a way to fast forward a week so the 00z Euro solution wont be able to do a 135 twelve hours from now.
    1 point
  37. I forgot the new and improved GFS maps rain as snow
    1 point
  38. No chance. If ATL gets 15" of snow I'm personally driving Feb's bus off a cliff.
    1 point
  39. LOL, I posted yesterday's run. No wonder it looked so good. . Back to pbp. I deleted to save late risers from confusion.
    1 point
  40. 1 point
  41. 1 point
  42. yup, despite the s/w being weaker, the confluence lifts out faster thus it can gain some latitude.
    1 point
  43. I can deal with getting this thing to trend N once we get within Day 3-4....as most of us know it is always harder to have it trend S unless you’re talking going from a hit to a graze instead of a cutter to a hit. I do worry though that as we get closer that one of those short waves racing across the confluence could cause this thing to be a whiff...oh screw it I worry about each solution that doesn’t give us a foot of snow.
    1 point
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