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Maybe we bite the bullet and the PNA rebuilds towards February, but then idk what happens to the AO. You can see signs of the epo ridge shifting west a bit here and a pna ridge starting to rebuild next to the Rex block.

It’s really unbelievable. I was going to make the same post. I don’t know if it’s bad luck. Maybe a type of pattern that just isn’t conducive east coast storms. The La Niña influencing the strength of the jet, I have no clue. You’d think a west based block, -epo, -pna would do something! It’s incredible. I wonder how the block recovers after it it retrogrades all the way into frigging Minnesota

This is such an anomalous pattern going Into the 6-10 day timeframe. Can’t recall the last time seeing something like this.

Couple of light T-1 snow events on GFS. If you like that kinda thing

00z cmc looks pretty decent at 174. Bringing more energy out with that first southwest wave. It doesn’t have that pig ULL sitting in south central Canada like the GFS does

I went back and updated the analysis for the last 12 decades now including the Philadelphia data from 1900-1949 (this represents raw unadjusted data with no after the fact adjustments) comparing data for the last 120 years from 1900 thru 2019. The key finding is that the suspected rapid PHL heat island impact and problems are growing at an even greater rate than ever imagined....the difference between the heat island near Philadelphia and the burbs using actual NWS observed temps is telling....Just look at how quickly the lines are diverging and you will see where this is going. Just look at

The first flakes are the best. Then I’m looking at the 240hr euro. No seriously I love this stuff, snow and I have a complicated relationship. Sure, I’ll enjoy a 1-3er but it ends up making me crave a 2 footer that much more.

Awesome, thanks for the verification Rec'd my 1st 2 notifications earlier that lightning was 23-25 miles away

I hope so lol. It’s a really good pattern going forward. Good patterns though don’t guarantee snow though, they just increase the chances of it

The incredible beauty of falling and on the ground snow is the best part. Tracking digital snowfall is a PITA

Great. Will it snow in West Caln?

Gigi looks so happy

Yeah make the 12z run today the last one. It started too soon to include 00z this evening.

Purchased a digital copy but haven’t started reading it yet.

Did any of you get this? I kind of forgot about it, but just ordered it and can't wait to read it. Was just about to work through the KU book again, but figure I'll read this first.

Well, that was a surprise. Massive single lightning strike a couple of minutes ago. Dog and cat scatter

It's pretty fascinating watching how the whole Pacific pattern changes from an extended jet to a retracted jet. This is all occurs from 2 cyclonic wavebreaks that basically snap off a piece of the pacific jet. So it goes extended pac jet->wave break-> jet retract-wave break-> jet retract. Can see from the progression how we start with a pac jet that covers most of the pacific ocean and ends with a pac jet that is restricted mainly towards Asia. This matches up very well with the NPJ diagram where we go from a poleward extended pac jet, to the jet finally retracting.

Got my first lightning notification just now. Said lightning detected between 19 & 21 miles away. Checked it against RadarScope detection, and it was 20 miles away. Pretty impressive. Overall I think it’s a great device for its price and simple design, with the obvious caveat of the rain gauge.

This is something to possibly watch for February. The main tropical forcing right now is IO shifting into the maritime continent (phases 4/5) over the next 15 days, all warm phases. Granted there is some weak -OLR out in phase 7, but the main forcing is in the warm phases. Look at the progression here of the -olr. Can see its slowly coming closer towards the dateline. The +olr creeping is in the IO in the 10-15 day looking to push towards the maritime continent. Does this -olr make it through phase 7-8-1-2? For February, 8-1-2-3 are cold phases for the east coast. So I would think we still pro

While you would look at an h5 map like this on the pacific side of things and start to worry about pac air getting into the pattern, not the case here. Trace your hgts lines from where you live. While yes, the flow does go over the pacific but that is a direct discharge of cold air coming right from the north pole.

I know you and I have different view points on snow events, but I'm still watching friday time period to see if that can trend back to a 1-3 or better type thing. Those cut off lows down in the southwest can give models fits.

February our month....... one can only hope 🤷‍♂️

Anticipation is the best part. Once the storm starts we're seeking out the next one hah

Common guys the hunt is the best part! Idk it looks pretty dry until then so not much else to root for. Maybe one of those NS waves tracks south enough, meh.

Hopefully the law of averages will kick in and benefit us. Otherwise the post-mortem of this winter would make for an entertaining read