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  1. Past hour
  2. Looking like Tuesday's event is fast becoming another fizzler. 24 hour trend here...
  3. We must have posted at the same time - lets see if the euro/eps have the same trends. The eps and gefs 500 mb means were pretty close at 00z.
  4. GEFS individuals - 2 main groups - good hits and offshore - Nice improvement but still a long way to go
  5. You can see initial great lakes low...the mean transfer is decently far S in latitude so we have a shot.
  6. GEFS trend @138. Pacific low is amplifying the western ridge and tugging it NW the past 2 cycles.
  7. Today
  8. A good track for us. Could have been a bigger hit here, without the front-running low offshore.
  9. EPS day 7 2-day trend. Storm signal increasing, but would need to dig more for us. Large changes in the Pacific which impact the western ridge and reduce confidence in any one solution.
  10. I'd suspect that lack of confluence is limiting initial precip expansion given no dual jet structure until it's in New England. As you said it's a Miller B. Basically we have stale air and await favorable timing of cold front and transfer to our S just in time for the coastal to form and column to be sufficiently cool. Mids are essentially right over us, another risk with late blooming miller b. Yes, way too much detail, but it's a look that's been present past few runs. Doable, just extra special fortunate should it work out.
  11. Yes again, a Miller B, tough to get those far enough S+W, but too early to worry about details.
  12. Yes, storm is looking likely, just have to figure out the details
  13. Reminiscent of some big storms with sharp western cutoffs that crush areas mainly NE of PHL. Just my gut. Good look here.
  14. I was in NYC for that one. Forecast was 2-3', got less than six inches. It was a good winter, but that bust colored my whole mood
  15. That track reminds me of Nemo in 15 or whatever winter it was. The one nyc had forecast for 2’ and blizzard warnings. Philly had high totals then got slashed everyday closer
  16. Looking at some of the models tonight, Tuesday's event is looking less impressive. At least there was a partial phase on previous runs. Hopefully, things turn around.
  17. Bumped from another topic: For those with a Tempest, who don’t already know, a linked Alexa “skill” will give you current conditions, and now, same day forecasts... And, you can open the Tempest app on an iPad and have it “stay on” to use as a weather monitor!
  18. I have really been trying to embrace an attitude of gratitude for snowfall during my first winter back on the east coast in several years, but if I eke out 2'' while ACY gets 16''...
  19. One fear is with fast flow this just becomes a crappy weak wave. As is this is still a blockbuster
  20. Again, so close it’s painful. Nemo nightmares starting to pop up again.
  21. Little late again but looks like it scrapes the coast. Crush job SNE incoming
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