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Rainshadow

Newer Wetter Than Wet GFS Coming To A Theatre Near You on July 19th.

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There are many reasons why the soon to be sent to the woodshed OP GFS wont be missed when it comes to its .01" isohyet: the worst skill score by far of all the global models.

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It takes special skill to have it rain from absolutely no clouds:

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Please make it stop.  This was the 18z run on the 7th for Thursday the 10th. Not exactly la-la-land territory.

This violates the adiabatic lapse rate rule of 10C/km and assumes super-adiabatic conditions up to 1.5 or so km with a 20C difference in temperatures.  A 13C difference between 925mb and sfc is borderline super-adiabatic. It does this while skies are basically cloudy.

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On 8/8/2017 at 11:45 AM, Rainshadow said:

Please make it stop.  This was the 18z run on the 7th for Thursday the 10th. Not exactly la-la-land territory.

This violates the adiabatic lapse rate rule of 10C/km and assumes super-adiabatic conditions up to 1.5 or so km with a 20C difference in temperatures.  A 13C difference between 925mb and sfc is borderline super-adiabatic. It does this while skies are basically cloudy.

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The high was 86F.

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Pretty much what Levi Cowan stated about the new GFS in pictures, it is a decoupled model when it comes to ssta.  The reason I read was "coupling" it produced poorer forecast tracks.  So the GFS and HMON (which I read one run nearly went down to 850mb) are treating the ocean/gulf waters as if they are as flat as a pancake without any upwelling churning/cooling.  So that near 90 degree bath water between Cuba & Florida was used "as is" until the next model initialization noticed its not so hot after all. Thus, small track errors, big intensity errors....

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This past weekend PHL had precipitation for 30 consecutive hours, longest stretch I could find.  A couple of the hours were traces.

Which brings us to today's 12z GFS with 60 out of 66 consecutive hours with measurable precipitation for early next week.  EMC,  please make it stop and go away.

:facepalm:

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

This past weekend PHL had precipitation for 30 consecutive hours, longest stretch I could find.  A couple of the hours were traces.

Which brings us to today's 12z GFS with 60 out of 66 consecutive hours with measurable precipitation for early next week.  EMC,  please make it stop and go away.

:facepalm:

That's how you end a drought. Just write code to make things wetter for the GFS.B)

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On 7/13/2018 at 7:18 AM, Rainshadow said:

Head shaker material for this Friday the 13th afternoon again.

 

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High temperature was 88F and the wind was not calm.

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Only in the GFS's world can it mostly cloudy, rain each and every single 3 and 12 hour forecast period and the soil remain dry enough that reaching 90F is a piece of cake. 

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On 7/24/2018 at 9:45 AM, Rainshadow said:

Only in the GFS's world can it mostly cloudy, rain each and every single 3 and 12 hour forecast period and the soil remain dry enough that reaching 90F is a piece of cake. 

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Measurable rain fell on 7 of the 11 days.  The last five days had a grand total of 0.21", so reaching the 90s became an easier reality.  0.81" pcpn for the month of August to date.

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Another blue ribbon it will never stop convectively raining forecast by the GFS.  That 1% cloud cover its going to be the most efficient rain maker in history.  I will not miss this version of this model once it is gone during the summer.

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