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Rainshadow

Newer GFS Coming To A Theatre Near You on July 19th.

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There are many reasons why the soon to be sent to the woodshed OP GFS wont be missed when it comes to its .01" isohyet: the worst skill score by far of all the global models.

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It takes special skill to have it rain from absolutely no clouds:

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Please make it stop.  This was the 18z run on the 7th for Thursday the 10th. Not exactly la-la-land territory.

This violates the adiabatic lapse rate rule of 10C/km and assumes super-adiabatic conditions up to 1.5 or so km with a 20C difference in temperatures.  A 13C difference between 925mb and sfc is borderline super-adiabatic. It does this while skies are basically cloudy.

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On 8/8/2017 at 11:45 AM, Rainshadow said:

Please make it stop.  This was the 18z run on the 7th for Thursday the 10th. Not exactly la-la-land territory.

This violates the adiabatic lapse rate rule of 10C/km and assumes super-adiabatic conditions up to 1.5 or so km with a 20C difference in temperatures.  A 13C difference between 925mb and sfc is borderline super-adiabatic. It does this while skies are basically cloudy.

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The high was 86F.

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Pretty much what Levi Cowan stated about the new GFS in pictures, it is a decoupled model when it comes to ssta.  The reason I read was "coupling" it produced poorer forecast tracks.  So the GFS and HMON (which I read one run nearly went down to 850mb) are treating the ocean/gulf waters as if they are as flat as a pancake without any upwelling churning/cooling.  So that near 90 degree bath water between Cuba & Florida was used "as is" until the next model initialization noticed its not so hot after all. Thus, small track errors, big intensity errors....

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