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chescopawxman

JB Seeing Ghost of '67 with Wave 2.....Likes 3 to 6" DC to BOS

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Quite a long post from Mr Bastardi at WB - talking the ghost of '67

"Its still about 50 miles southeast of 82 and 1967. 67 was called a surprise blizzard because it came much faster than was on the radio, The snow was back into ACY by 8 pm Monday night after the arctic wave system had ended. Anyway its darn close to those storms, We covered 67 the other day and I hope you guys are getting a kick out of and old guy bringing up these storms. Its just that I researched each and every one of them, so when they show up, or I think they might show up , I share it with you. Its like the new Euro, which if you remember, I did that post on the high height snowstorms that can occur. In the meantime, I am sitting here in the Sahara Desert of Central Pa getting ready to watch micro flakes, but thats okay cause its exciting to watch all this. Watch Savannah and Hatteras. Those will be huge Inside of Hatteras thats how you get the foot from DC to Boston with this. 50 miles out its 6-12, 100 miles east 3-6, greater than 100 miles, then the big cities get missed by the bulk of it, I like the 3-6 option best big cities. But look this is now down to plotting maps tomorrow and tomorrow night. Watch the short when it gets into the plains ( dismissing it in the rockies is a non starter, models cant tell) and watch where the true front sets up near the SE coast. Gotta get old school tomorrow pm and night. The fact is the short wave in front of this is lifting up so fast its allowing this back in. That warm water you hate so much when those flakes turn to rain is your friend. And by the way, where it is snowing around noon Saturday north of the Mason Dixon line, its likely to be in the teens and low 20s . This is not a warm storm"

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JB still holding firm on 3" to 6" for I95 from DC to NY - his reasons = 20 to 1 ratios and this storm will move another 50 miles NW then forecated 

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JB grading himself for this last storm...

"While no doubt there will be local variations in the storm amounts, by and large NWS forecasts and warnings are within an inch or two of my long standing ideas so I understand that wind , snow banding, etc will cause variations. The most important aspect of this storm for me is not in your backyard, (I think you can forecast that just fine!) but showing the lead up to this which is close to 10 days old and why sometimes its best to keep one forecast out if you have worked your tail off to come up with it. Models come and go.

This is not saying this is by any means perfect, as I have said several times the phasing system today, from the original idea last Thursday, was supposed to have occurred with yesterdays system. The result would have been a bigger storm further west, but no 2 shot system. I did however early this week show the similar situation with 1967 and said this looked a little east of that, which if is by 50-100 miles.

The overlooked aspect of this is the Texas cold as far as another thing I snuck in that wound up having merit, Both Dallas and Houston were colder than Dec Dallas hit 14, Houston 22. Models did not have it that cold at all.

The next fight so to speak is with the big cold high. I like the Euro control the best and the euro is close to it The control is not monkeying around as its trying to push so much cold air south, that the snowstorm on the back side of the high is in the northern mid atlantic"

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I know JB will never get much credit from most here at phillywx. (he is after all....likely next to DT the most controversial & unpopular professional MET we have) ...but he never wavered and kept pounding the 3" to 6" in this area that many did not see just a few days ago. That said....we all know his biases (too snowy too cold and of course - way too fast!) and he is just another professional voice in the crowd. But in a tip of the cap to the old days (for those that remember - kudos to JB - that still makes me laugh how often that was posted!
 

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Yes it was.  Its refreshing too to see that my east/west of Hatteras track assessments/impacts for PHL has also been observed/corroborated by Joe. 

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47 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Yes it was.  Its refreshing too to see that my east/west of Hatteras track assessments/impacts for PHL has also been observed/corroborated by Joe. 

Hmmm I know he has mentioned a wise mentor gave him advice....I never knew!!

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14 hours ago, chescopawxman said:

I know JB will never get much credit from most here at phillywx. (he is after all....likely next to DT the most controversial & unpopular professional MET we have) ...but he never wavered and kept pounding the 3" to 6" in this area that many did not see just a few days ago. That said....we all know his biases (too snowy too cold and of course - way too fast!) and he is just another professional voice in the crowd. But in a tip of the cap to the old days (for those that remember - kudos to JB - that still makes me laugh how often that was posted!
 

I was one of the original Bastardi followers back in the AccuWeatherPro days.  

The problem that JB had once AWPro became what it had become was that he became less met, more hype machine, overhyping forecasts for clicks, views, and subs.  I think AccuWeather encouraged and to a big extent forced the creation of that beast.  

All that said, he has always been a guy I enjoyed following and reading, and I've always been impressed with the way he sniffs out patterns and teaches about how macro patterns influence mesoscale weather.  I can say I learned a great deal from Joe over the years.  Can also say he made a great and ballsy call this weekend.

Kudos to JB.

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53 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

Hmmm I know he has mentioned a wise mentor gave him advice....I never knew!!

Not me ;) , maybe Jim Eberwine or Walt Drag, but not me.  Its good to see two people come to the same conclusion.

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7 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Not me ;) , maybe Jim Eberwine or Walt Drag, but not me.  Its good to see two people come to the same conclusion.

Not just 2 people.....2 professionals!

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