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chescopawxman

January Private Firms Professional MET Discussions/Outlooks

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Thanks for the messages asking for a new thread highlighting private sector professional meteorologist forecasts!

To start us off for January find below from Mr. Joe Bastardi from WeatherBell - with his comment on the Euro outlook for January

"The Euro certainly is bullish on the major west to east cold in Days 5-15 and the return of cold for later January and into February. It's the period in between I am having problems with given all that is on the table. Speaking of all that is on the table, the extreme major shot (a la 1985) is certainly there. Of the 46 days, it looks like the model literally has a bullish pattern 50-65% of the time, and we already know some big hitting cold is coming faster than it had a few weeks ago. I am very suspicious of its warming but believe the cold it has is at least that cold and likely even colder when push comes to shove.

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JB liked his thoughts so much he had to say it twice...

does that double his chances of being correct ?

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From JB after seeing 12z Euro

"I am not changing my ideas on the east coast threat next week. Its interesting watching tweets and while there is certainly a chance the models are right, there is just as good a chance that the trough in the midwest is deeper and there is more wave right on the east coast Thursday morning. I understand I may be a victim of my own circumstance... the system is ejected out so fast it does not have enough space to deepen. But it looks to me like a shot of energy comes around through Wyoming at hour 108 and by 132 that is at the base of the trough with energy still piling in from the north. What is it going to take... 50 meters lower over Chicago and Higher on the mid atlnatic coast to change what is an arctic wave dumping 1-3 inches of snow in the mid atlantic and going out to having a storm on the coast and snow spread back into Pa the New England? That is chicken feed 5 days away and the most likely correction given the warm water is higher heights on the coast. I. What is interesting is how after all these years, fears, and yes tears, someone doesnt stop and think, how many day 5-6 storms that nailed me were forecasted out to sea 5 days before. In fact if you live around NYC, most storms that are nailing you day 5 wind up as rain. Sure I may be wrong, the models say I am, But a position that took me some work to come up with is not something I will abandon cause a model says so. If its flat tomorrow, so be it. If its back tomorrow, then everyone will be back going wild."

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From JB on potential late week - indicates he was wrong on how the upcoming threat might come to pass...

"This will be more phased and further north on the east coast. The trough sharpening like that argues for it and GFS bias does too. However my bias is obvious here , since I have been counting on that system to produce my I-95 snow, ( I can not claim I was right even if it does since its not doing it the phased way Friday I thought it would) I AM LOOKING FOR THE HOMERGUN PITCH. but the model looks strange to me and if we are going to get that kind of beast that far back off the west coast, this should be much stronger near the east coast

Just a thought for now... I want to handle system one. Interesting, remember before last years blizzard, there was a minor system a few days before that shut down DC on a Wednesday night ( half inch or so) Wont take much of a correction on the GFS to have one a couple of days before, then the bigger one later

So again, I am biased here since I EXPECT this pattern to produce the big hitter on the east coast in the coming 7 days, But I do have arguments not based on my preconceived notions with where the trough is off the west coast ( sudden slowing and sharpening) and the usual GFS problems which such things near the east coast

Fun pattern though."

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JB latest analysis "believe EURO will beat GFS on eastern seaboard this weekend and as it is may correct west more"

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NY NJ PA Weather with Steve D

Has Trace to 1" from wave 1 NW of I95 and 1 to 3" from I95 to coast

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on the longer range Dr. Dewpoint Joe D - feels that La Nada (which we are now in) will yield better snow days in mid to late winter for the MA and Northeast.....

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Latest thoughts from JB on 12z Euro - still not buying further east move -says "don't overreact to a model will wait to see all of the players on field in Midwest" 

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Bernie Rayno still thinks snow could make it back to I95 with 2nd storm. Now... not a lot of snow but maybe a few inches in spots. Feels too many folks are dealing with the "windshield wiper" effect of just watching model panels instead of meteorology. 

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6 hours ago, chescopawxman said:

Bernie Rayno still thinks snow could make it back to I95 with 2nd storm. Now... not a lot of snow but maybe a few inches in spots. Feels too many folks are dealing with the "windshield wiper" effect of just watching model panels instead of meteorology. 

Yeah, the 500 MB pattern indicates there is some room but we shall see.

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JB's latest tweet "While major SE winter event is a gimme...further north not out of the woods. See Feb 1967 and December 1982"

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JB goin "boom" with his late Jan and Feb thoughts this evening....

"So what is the big deal with it getting warm for mid month? The fact is this reminds me alot of the 67-68 thaws, where we were in 1993 and 2013 and the thaws of of 14-15. At the end of those winters, no one was talking about the thaw, but about how long and strong winter was. Remember Endless summer. Perhaps when we get to April we may think the same thing about this winter.Yes the thaw is coming but I think it gets blown up A boom boom boom boom"

 

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JB from WB with his thoughts on the pattern change coming....

"But that is how these storms can be , the first one mainly north of US 6 and east of te Hudson river Wednesday but that one in the 7/8 period, the one I think is going out under the block , that is the next one . Now the big thing is that may be so strong is it pulls the other one in. In any case back over a week ago when we were sounding alarms about how warm this thaw may or may not be, and of course I may just be being stubborn, I mentioned how it could end with some wild storm changing to snow in the northeast. Not as likely in the midwest, ( outside of flurries) as the colder air has to come in from the northeast first But as soon as that positive gets to and west of Hudson bay, look out. Game on"

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I love to "read" JBs latest but am I the only one who needs a special mail-away decoder ring to decipher his phraseology?

"Drink more Ovaltine!"

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For Monday's event - JB going with 3" to 6" Well NW of big cities with 1" to 3" from DC to BOS - clearly not a flake on any point and clicks....

Says he sees the modelling but he sees a 2nd taking over on the coast etc. He did have a funny comment that is true - he said the rain/snow line is only a mile away from any location....over your head. Upward motion can drag it on down.

We shall see how far off he is...

 

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6 hours ago, chescopawxman said:

For Monday's event - JB going with 3" to 6" Well NW of big cities with 1" to 3" from DC to BOS - clearly not a flake on any point and clicks....

Says he sees the modelling but he sees a 2nd taking over on the coast etc. He did have a funny comment that is true - he said the rain/snow line is only a mile away from any location....over your head. Upward motion can drag it on down.

We shall see how far off he is...

 

Image result for straw grasping

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For your reading enjoyment From JB at WB this AM

"The tornadoes and severe weather in Mississippi are a sign that a front running impulse is coming out. That impulse is going to carve the path for this low to move along. The Euro wants it over Chesapeake bay for instance, and then the primary goes toward it. I think its likely to be off the Delmarva by tomorrow night, and that is where the big low winds up on Monday. Now consider this. Its so warm it cant get any warmer. What do I mean by that? Well all the warm air for the system is already on the playing field. Because winds are mainly west in the southern sector of the storm, there is no transport of warmer air into the center as it moves east. Instead the cooler air cmes flying in underneath and as the center moves further northeast, it starts drawing cooling are into it from the northeast . The front running system causing those tornadoes is HUGE in this for this should get off the mid atlantic coast tomorrow and when it does, establish the path for the primary center, after it moves up into WVA, to move along. The warm air that is around now has gone into developing the storm as heights fall over it, but there is no warm inflow. The air mass to the northeast is low level cold air, Its way the new HIRES NAM is cooling this so dramatically, its seeing all this and too little back in central Pa simply because of the ideas I have analogged this too ( 3 storms that were warm that turned into big interior snows as centers drew cold air in, and precip processes cooled the air, late March 1984, Dec 1992, late March 1984). The warm advection leads to strong upward motion. Saturated air that may be 38 degrees at NYC is lifted and that can cool quite a bit, Meanwhile he sounding turns Isothermal and a bunch of people start turning over to snow west of the track to the upper low. as soon as the warm advection cuts off, which should be Monday as all the cooling gets around it, a bunch of people start turning over to snow That is the key.

So what I do is figure out all the scenarios I see and weight them. Lets look here at State College. If I blend my 3 analogs it comes out to a foot. But suppose I look at modeling, take the average of the Canadian UKMET US models, ensembles and operational. I may have 10 samples I am looking at Now we got 15 with March 84 and Dec 1992 and 9 with the early 93 March storm. That is 39 for a total . the contribution from 7 models is only 7 So lets say there are 7 objective inputs adding up to 7 inches ( 1 each) and then my 3 analogs which tack on another 39 ( 15,15,9) . This gives me 10 tools totaling 46, which is an average of 4.6, hence the forecast of 3-6 put out a couple of days ago. NYC I said 1-3. This is not to get into a fight over either place Its to demonstrate a forecast method where you don't simply go into depression/elation cycles over model. The time to flip out is Tuesday morning if there is nothing on the ground , not over models. But if you can come up with storm typing, then as the storm gets closer, you can eliminate the options.

Forecasting is not putting out 10 different options before an event. If you change your forecast 9 times, then out of 10 samples you were wrong on 90% of them. And what's more you cant go back and claim a forecast was right. You can say, that idea was better, but I pulled it off the table.

I really think the answer to the forecast questions is not the models, but identifying EVERYTHING you can and then weighting it. The models are simply doing that. Their variance shows that obviously they disagree. So what is needed for the right answer. YOU! I don't care if you have a degree or not, if you love the weather and you love getting out there then you should put out your ideas. This is another libertarian rant against those that think its "irresponsible" for untrained guys to be posting forecasts. That is arrogant. I am suggesting a method that I use that you might want to try, sharing what I do. I am also suggesting that there is a philosophy that can make it easier not to swing all over the place when models do or do not go your way"

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^^^^ Larry C speaks clearly about upcoming potential as did C Tynan on a live webcast I just viewed....

i also need to say what a nice job channel 6 does with their weather spots in providing some longer range analysis (particularly in comparison to the increased dribble that channel 10 provides with little more than discussing countless temperature ranges, and now rarely shows their 10 day extended)!

I know other weather enthusiasts here and elsewhere agree and I post this with hopes that both outlets will "see" it and continue/adjust there coverage as the case may be! 

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From JB at WB

"The folly of putting the cart before the horse with individual storms is standing out most pronounced on the European. I have no changes in my ideas on this being a big snow and ice event from the central plains into the northeast and the idea a center tries to get up in the Ohio valley with a secondary that cuts all the warming. The European has gone from as warm is it could be 4 days ago to a suppressed look that given what I see makes little sense with itself as this kind of trough is likely to capture the southern storm. One thing it is not. is a warm system in the midwest and northeast. It was never that to me, even if a center does cut up because there was going to be so much cold air in the way, it would ice and snow in many places. Of course now the worry is too far to the south, but I am confident on my answer in between. But I use storms in the longer term to make points about what I think is going on. The GFS was abysmal on the clipper Tuesday. After all these years, the same problem it was jumping on the front running short so much it lowered pressures too far north. The heaviest snow at 20 to 1 ratios will be near and north of the 528 thk. Plot your thickness and in the midwest and northeast, if your average thk is 525 start to finish of a 6 hour period of snow, ( start snowing at 522 and rise to 528) you should be in the sweet spot for the 20 to 1. And the system Monday morning will be a pain from DC to ACY, most likely coating to 2s. But again that clipper is coming down with a nice warm front that will force some pretty impressive overrunning

But all this is a sign that the ideas have merit. I tweeted out this am that I dont believe it will rain again here in central PA till march 14. I tried to pull that back in 2009 at IAD , saying in late Jan I dont think they would get any rain in Feb, it would be all snow or frozen. IAD did have .25 inches of rain but the rest was all snow. Now that is not to say that a nasty blizzard will hit New England. It is saying, given this is an ensemble, that some of the key markers for an extreme are being hinted at by the model. But the real point is the pattern for the next couple of week has turned the way we thought it would, and even out at day 16, I just dont think that looks bad for what we have been saying going forward. Perhaps love is blind, and I still love what I am seeing.

But whatever you do if you are a snow lover in the midwest and now the northeast.. dont put the cart before the horse. For if its backyard snow you are interested in, many of you will not have to wait till what is now day 8"

 

 

 

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Tony - I believe that map does NOT look much like the WB forecast map for January....

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My biggest question is why the hell isn't Chris Sauers on 6 more often... he offers more analysis than any other tv met I've ever seen and is clearly under utilized!!! Channel 10 needs him really badly at this point!!

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