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Rainshadow

EPS vs GEFS 8 Day Snowfall Forecasts...Done For Season, We are Adding Graphical Results

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17 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Tony,

What do you think of this graph?  Red line would be perfect forecast; anything right of that line was an overforecast by the gefs, anything to the left underforecast.  That clustering left of the line near 5" was the truck back-up storm in early January.

 

That's a pretty solid graph. I like it 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

That's a pretty solid graph. I like it 

I am not skilled with the graphing side of excel, but after we are finished with the season, I will see if I can generate an EPS, GEFS graphical comparison.

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59 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Thru 00z on the 19th.

Tom was 12z yesterday on EPS zero?

 

EPF.GEFS Snow Comp.xlsx

.5  forgot to post it lol. But nothing this current run. If we get something above 0 between now and the 24th I will post. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

.5  forgot to post it lol. But nothing this current run. If we get something above 0 between now and the 24th I will post. 

Got it!  Thanks!

 

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23 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

EPs or GEfs?

eps, nothing on gefs

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42 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

eps, nothing on gefs

Thanks!  I am on minute 49 waiting to hear Golf Galaxy's excuse #6 why the club I ordered on February 3rd is still not here.

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On 3/18/2017 at 10:23 AM, Rainshadow said:

Tony,

What do you think of this graph?  Red line would be perfect forecast; anything right of that line was an overforecast by the gefs, anything to the left underforecast.  That clustering left of the line near 5" was the truck back-up storm in early January.

CaptureCC.JPG

Would be interesting to see a linear regression line through the data to compare to the perfect forecast line.

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24 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Would be interesting to see a linear regression line through the data to compare to the perfect forecast line.

Charlie, I am an excel illiterate, when I put in a linear regression request, it didnt look like it did me much help (which is likely more me, not excel).  Granted the dates are not there, but this is the forecast progression shown a different way:

Capture2.thumb.JPG.1bedf292473ecb351200846727c01700.JPG

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Charlie, I am an excel illiterate, when I put in a linear regression request, it didnt look like it did me much help (which is likely more me, not excel).  Granted the dates are not there, but this is the forecast progression shown a different way:

Tony - If you have the chart activated, click on the "add chart elements" tab on the ribbon. One of the pull down menu items is "trendline" and go from there.

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25 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Tony - If you have the chart activated, click on the "add chart elements" tab on the ribbon. One of the pull down menu items is "trendline" and go from there.

I have to regenerate it, but it should not take long, then I get to go pull some more early spring weeds, whatever those purple flowering things are.

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50 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Tony - If you have the chart activated, click on the "add chart elements" tab on the ribbon. One of the pull down menu items is "trendline" and go from there.

Charlie,

Here it is.

I am a novice with excel graphs, so for everyone Predicted is the X axis and observed is the Y axis; its in inches.

 

CaptureF.thumb.JPG.866bd326e536e0f7391e742b442b4889.JPG

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3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Charlie,

Here it is.

I am a novice with excel graphs, so for everyone Predicted is the X axis and observed is the Y axis; its in inches.

Tony - Thanks. Roughly a 50% slope so for every 2" predicted on average 1" was observed but with plenty of scatter.

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18 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Tony - Thanks. Roughly a 50% slope so for every 2" predicted on average 1" was observed but with plenty of scatter.

You are welcome.  It looks like once you get 2.5" (on the GEFs) or more of snow outlooked, you were guaranteed it will measurably snow.

Also there was only one (out of 77 if I counted right GEFS & EPS Forecasts) zero forecasts this cold season that had measurable snow occur.   So it (both GEFs and EPS) was alot better at being Dr. No than being Dr. Yes (with low amounts).

 

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On 3/25/2017 at 1:19 PM, Rainshadow said:

 

CaptureF.thumb.JPG.866bd326e536e0f7391e742b442b4889.JPG

Here is the EPS for comparison, while its average bias was slightly less, it still overforecast snowfall also. Like the GEFS, one had to get beyond about 2.3"

to guarantee measurable.

Capture.thumb.JPG.3efe00ab96f4a5b3b9613f3370e2611a.JPG

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