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Rainshadow

EPS vs GEFS 8 Day Snowfall Forecasts...Done For Season, We are Adding Graphical Results

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Tom & I were bandying this around and decided to do a test run of it this winter. If you like it and/or it shows some worthwhile skill, we'll roll with it.  We realize there is pratfalls with assuming simple 10:1 ratios, what the heck do we do with sleet and does not take into account timing errors.  But we will see which ensemble does better.  Its an eight day period, so there may multiple events.  In our qpf comparison thread, we are already separating out these model snowfall projections within 84 hours of a concluding event.

Comments, questions, etc always cheerfully accepted and maybe cheerfully responded.  ;)

This is the actual running total, so we wont know how good they are until the last day passes.

EPF.GEFS Snow Comp.xlsx

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Which site or graphics will be used? We've seen with this event the difference between the sites. 

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Interesting Tony and Tom. :) Tony, one question. Geography? Are the data points in your spread sheet for one spot, say Philadelphia? Not sure how high a resolution? (am I using the right term you can get with these models) For example with the HRRR model I can get an idea of what the model is saying for Hunterdon County and compare that with Hudson County for example.

On 12/16/2016 at 0:21 PM, Rainshadow said:

Tom & I were bandying this around and decided to do a test run of it this winter. If you like it and/or it shows some worthwhile skill, we'll roll with it.  We realize there is pratfalls with assuming simple 10:1 ratios, what the heck do we do with sleet and does not take into account timing errors.  But we will see which ensemble does better.  Its an eight day period, so there may multiple events.  In our qpf comparison thread, we are already separating out these model snowfall projections within 84 hours of a concluding event.

Comments, questions, etc always cheerfully accepted and maybe cheerfully responded.  ;)

Interesting.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, rramblings said:

Interesting Tony and Tom. :) Tony, one question. Geography? Are the data points in your spread sheet for one spot, say Philadelphia? Not sure how high a resolution (am I using the right term you can get with these models. For example with the HRRR model I can get an idea of what the model is saying for Hunterdon County and compare that with Hudson County for example.

Interesting.

 

 

 

 

 

 

yea you can compare the counties on the eps mean

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3 hours ago, rramblings said:

Interesting Tony and Tom. :) Tony, one question. Geography? Are the data points in your spread sheet for one spot, say Philadelphia? Not sure how high a resolution? (am I using the right term you can get with these models) For example with the HRRR model I can get an idea of what the model is saying for Hunterdon County and compare that with Hudson County for example.

Interesting.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes it (the sheet) is just for PHL. The EMC (GEFS) web site just has AVP, PHL, LGA & ACY as nearby locations.  What Tom sees with the EPS can be brought down to the county level.

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Just now, Rainshadow said:

Congratulations Mr. Blutarsky....

Going to be seeing that <.5 for a while 

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

Going to be seeing that <.5 for a while 

You'd think we'd get a rogue 7.5" member in there somewhere...

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Just now, Rainshadow said:

You'd think we'd get a rogue 7.5" member in there somewhere...

Even so,  all the 0s cancel it out

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Even so,  all the 0s cancel it out

12z/18th GEFS managed a 0.1" here; 1.8" in AVP (more with Thu (nearly all)  than Christmas (about half of members) ).

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30 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

What's with all of the Blutarskys? This thread is a jinx.

LOL. We are down to a solitary GEFS member with an inch of snow on the 06 cycle.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

What's with all of the Blutarskys? This thread is a jinx.

lol bad patterns=bad results

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