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tombo82685

CFS, GGEM, JMA, and Euro Weeklies Thread

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24 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

temps

week 1 +10

week 2 +1

week 3 +3

week 4 +1

week 5 +1

week 6 +1

 

Don't look like end of winter weeklies to me. 

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Snowfall held steady with the increased storminess. Just pointing out its hard to get snow with above normal temps past feb 15th. The end of winter was sarcastic given just last week they were wonderful. Another 8 inches as is on weeklies and it's still a lackluster winter here. Philly gets around 50% of normal snow for the winter. 

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27 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Snowfall held steady with the increased storminess. Just pointing out its hard to get snow with above normal temps past feb 15th. The end of winter was sarcastic given just last week they were wonderful. Another 8 inches as is on weeklies and it's still a lackluster winter here. Philly gets around 50% of normal snow for the winter. 

Technically i am not sure you can even end something that has had a hard time getting started ;)

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33 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Snowfall held steady with the increased storminess. Just pointing out its hard to get snow with above normal temps past feb 15th. The end of winter was sarcastic given just last week they were wonderful. Another 8 inches as is on weeklies and it's still a lackluster winter here. Philly gets around 50% of normal snow for the winter. 

Next week they will be wonderful again.  

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Next week they will be wonderful again.  

I am more interested in the 48 week weeklies and what they show for Christmas 2017?? I am sure they would be as accurate as the weeklies for February 

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20 minutes ago, Feb said:

I am more interested in the 48 week weeklies and what they show for Christmas 2017?? I am sure they would be as accurate as the weeklies for February 

Lol.  Its too bad the cfs2 stops at about day 250, I would have posted Christmas 2017 for you. ;)

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Mitch, past week was +9; so far this year mon cfs 2 >>>>> mon euro

CFS2 Monday Weeklies

Temps

Week 1....+9F

Week 2....+4F (dont know about that)

Week 3....+3F

Week 4....+3F

Week 5....+1F (TTidbits)

Week 6....-1F (TTtidbits)

 

Pcpn

Week 1...wet :o

Week 2...dry

Weeks 3 & 4....wet

Weeks 5 & 6...patchy dryness (TTidbits)

 

500mb

week 2...Strong pv splits into Canada, but flow over Pacific more zonal (???).  I believe this will be colder than progged.

weeks 3 & 4....retrogression of pattern to our winter base state; pv in Canada rather north

weeks 5 & 6...return of west noam ridging and pv remains in northern Canada

 

 

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Differences between 12z EPS and 00z look enough to me that the weeklies would be quite a bit more in our favor if run off of 12z at least for week 3. 

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h5

week 1 -nao/+ao/+epo/+pna/ below normal hgts, flow from yukon

week 2 ---epo/+pna/neutral ao/+nao/ below normal hgts, flow from northern british columbia

week 3 -epo/-wpo/-ao/-enao/neutral pna/ below normal hgts, flow from pac nw, below normal hgts

week 4 -enao/-ao/neutral epo/-wpo/neutral pna/ below normal hgts, flow from southern british columbia

week 5 -ao/-enao/+pna/-epo/ normal hgts, flow from southern British Columbia

week 6 -ao/+nao/+pna/-epo/ normal hgts, flow from southern British Columbia

going off 850s, week 1 is abv normal, rest of the weeks below normal 

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

h5

week 1 -nao/+ao/+epo/+pna/ below normal hgts, flow from yukon

week 2 ---epo/+pna/neutral ao/+nao/ below normal hgts, flow from northern british columbia

week 3 -epo/-wpo/-ao/-enao/neutral pna/ below normal hgts, flow from pac nw, below normal hgts

week 4 -enao/-ao/neutral epo/-wpo/neutral pna/ below normal hgts, flow from southern british columbia

week 5 -ao/-enao/+pna/-epo/ normal hgts, flow from southern British Columbia

week 6 -ao/+nao/+pna/-epo/ normal hgts, flow from southern British Columbia

going off 850s, week 1 is abv normal, rest of the weeks below normal 

If the surface temps are above normal every week something is seriously wrong with the weeklies. Looks like a big cold shot around day 20. Fitting a show is called flip or flop. I'd think it would be great for the weeklies to star on that. 

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1 minute ago, Mitchg said:

If the surface temps are above normal every week something is seriously wrong with the weeklies. Looks like a big cold shot around day 20. Fitting a show is called flip or flop. I'd think it would be great for the weeklies to star on that. 

I could see a +1 or so but I agree I would thinkt here should be a lot of 0s and negative numbers. But I'm sure they will pull out a +3 or something. 

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10 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

If the surface temps are above normal every week something is seriously wrong with the weeklies. Looks like a big cold shot around day 20. Fitting a show is called flip or flop. I'd think it would be great for the weeklies to star on that. 

It could be split between two weeks, just sayin' were it to occur.  I can't say I have seen a warm bias in the European weeklies.

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Week 4 is normal all other weeks warmer than normal. Once again 500 mb and 850 don't match 2m temps. 

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h5

week 1 ---epo/-ao/-enao/+pna/ below normal hgts

week 2 ---epo/--wpo/-ao/neutral pna/-enao/below normal hgts

week 3 +pna/+epo/+ao/+nao/ slightly above normal hgts

week 4 +pna/+epo/+ao/+nao/ slightly above normal hgts

week 5 -pna/-epo/+ao/+nao/ slightly above normal hgts

week 6 neutral pna/-epo/-ao/+nao/ slightly above normal hgts

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1 minute ago, Mitchg said:

Weeklies went to a blowtorch and a huge trough over AK. last week or so not as bad.

LOL what, how do you get a blowtorch when the flow is from the US/Canada border?

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

LOL what, how do you get a blowtorch when the flow is from the US/Canada border?

Looks like a lot of pac flow to me. 850's are really warm 

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2 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Looks like a lot of pac flow to me. 850's are really warm 

I guess we will see when they come out. I mean I don't see negatives, but all the values look less than +3 or +4 to me if I had to take a guess. 

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