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CFS, GGEM, JMA, and Euro Weeklies Thread

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CFS2 Weeklies, Delmarva Coastal Waters Cold Pool Still Affecting Temp Outlooks.

Week 1 Rex Block / -NAO Configuration.  This week CFS2 looks better.

Week 2 Rex Block / -NAO Configuration

Week 3 Rex Block / -NAO Configuration

Week 4  +PNA

Week 5  -NAO/-PNA

Week 6  -NAO/-PNA

 

Temps    Previous Monday Outlook for same week in parentheses.

Week 1..........-8F (-9F) I'll take over, but not by much.

Week 2...........-5F (-2F) Lol, third straight week 2 temp tank.  I will take over thought -2F looked good last week for this week.

Week 3...........-3F (-3F) Over, it is called a Rex Block, not a Rex Planet

Week 4............-2F (+1F) I'll take over

Week 5............+2F (+1F) (TTidbits) under

Week 6............+1F (TTidbits) under

 

Pcpn

Week 1..........wet...good choice

Week 2...........wet

Week 3...........wet

Week 4...........wet

Week 5...........normal (TTidbits)

Week 6...........normal  (TTidbits)

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Tony, random curiosity question...I know CPC does model-produced 6-10/8-14 outlooks over the weekend, is the Delmarva cold pool also responsible for that enhanced area of below average over DE/VA/MD on yesterday's 6-10? I saw that and thought about what you had said, and was curious:



 

Screen Shot 2018-04-16 at 2.38.18 PM.png

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56 minutes ago, JamieO said:

Tony, random curiosity question...I know CPC does model-produced 6-10/8-14 outlooks over the weekend, is the Delmarva cold pool also responsible for that enhanced area of below average over DE/VA/MD on yesterday's 6-10? I saw that and thought about what you had said, and was curious:



 

Screen Shot 2018-04-16 at 2.38.18 PM.png

Jamie,

I don't think it is.  It almost looks like it follows the bias corrected NAEFS outlook.  The raw NAEFS looks like it is more influenced by the cold ssta along the southeast coast.  Especially on the TTidbits site, the CFS2 thermal influence is pretty blatant.  

 

2018041600_054_G6_global_I_SEASON_tm@lg@sd_000.png

2018041612_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png

naefs_bias-corrected_tmean_8-14day-NA.png

cfs-avg_T2maMean_eus_1.png

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week 1 -8

week 2 -2

week 3 -2

week 4 -1

week 5 -1

week 6 -1

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12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

week 1 -8

week 2 -2

week 3 -2

week 4 -1

week 5 -1

week 6 -1

I'll take that -2F over the CFS2's -5F in more ways than one for week 2.  Yesterday was a climo thermal wash, so need to amass an accumulative -52.5F departure for rest of this week to get to that -8F,  I think -6F or -7F would have been a better fit.  

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week 1 -2

week 2 -1

week 3  -2

week 4 -1

week 5 0

week 6 0

week 3 and 4 look the coldest, could be some decent negative departures in response to a pretty solid +pna with some weak -nao across the top for week 3. Might snap out of this cold by week 5/6 on euro weeklies if correct as the flow gets a bit better for warmer conditions

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Canadian weeklies

Temps

Near normal all four weeks.

SSTA effect:

2018041900_054_E1_canada_I_ANOMALY@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@162_264.png.437c042218c56b62772f576cffa6ce75.png

 

Pcpn:

Week 1 dry PHL north and west (ha)

Weeks 2 & 3 near normal

Week 4 wet

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On 4/17/2018 at 8:36 AM, Rainshadow said:

I'll take that -2F over the CFS2's -5F in more ways than one for week 2.  Yesterday was a climo thermal wash, so need to amass an accumulative -52.5F departure for rest of this week to get to that -8F,  I think -6F or -7F would have been a better fit.  

Well, wrong again.  The week average ended -7.64F which rounds to -8F. 

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CFS2 Weeklies, Delmarva Coastal Waters Cold Pool Not Affecting Temp Outlooks Weeks 1-4.

Week 1 +PNA (More so than Rex Block)

Week 2 -NAO E/-PNA (Look at change from previous Monday)

Week 3 -NAO E/+EPO

Week 4  -NAO/+EPO

Week 5  -NAO/-PNA

Week 6  -NAO/-PNA

 

Temps    Previous Monday Outlook for same week in parentheses.

Week 1..........-1F (-5F) This looks like a push, if I am wrong cloudy at night mins would be reason.

Week 2...........-1F (-3F) Alex, what is over?

Week 3...........+2F (-2F) no confidence

Week 4...........+2F (+2F) no confidence

Week 5............+2F (+1F) (TTidbits) under

Week 6............+2F (TTidbits) under

 

Pcpn

Week 1..........dry...good luck with that

Week 2...........normal

Week 3...........normal

Week 4...........dry

Week 5...........wet (TTidbits)

Week 6...........normal  (TTidbits)

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_2.png

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_3.png

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week 1 -1

week 2 0

week 3 0

week 4 0

week 5 -1

week 6 -1

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week 1 +1

week 2 0

week 3 +1

week 4 0

week 5 0

week 6 -2

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

week 1 +1

week 2 0

week 3 +1

week 4 0

week 5 0

week 6 -2

Now back on Planet Earth

 

Canadian Weeklies

Temperatures

Week 1................Above Normal

Weeks 2 thru 4....Near Normal

 

Precipitation

Week 1.................dry

Week 2.................wet

Weeks 3 & 4........near normal

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CFS2 Weeklies, Delmarva Coastal Waters Cold Pool No Longer Affecting Temp Outlooks.

Week 1 Hawt

Week 2 +PNA

Week 3 -NAO E/-EPO Still Cali Flow

Week 4 -NAO E/-EPO Still Cali Flow

Houston, we have a problem, CFS2 in summer mode, can't outlook below normal heights (look at maps below)

Week 5  -NAO E

Week 6  -NAO E

 

Temps    Previous Monday Outlook for same week in parentheses.

Week 1..........+3F (-1F) Better, but maybe still not warm enough

Week 2...........0F (+2F)  Under

Week 3...........+2F (+2F) Over

Week 4...........+2F (+2F) Under

Week 5............+2F (+2F) (TTidbits) Under

Week 6............+2F (TTidbits) Under

 

Pcpn

Week 1..........dry

Week 2...........wet

Week 3...........normal

Week 4...........wet

Week 5...........normal (TTidbits)

Week 6...........dry  (TTidbits)

 

Look ma, no negatives....

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_1.png

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_5.png

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Pressure on week 1 for the EC, not only does it have to gag by outlooking above normal temps, but it is riding a three week streak of perfect week 1 average departures from normal temp outlooks.

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EC weeklies tonight. 

May 7-14th: Below normal temps, general trough over eastern Canada 

May 14th-21st: Several degrees above normal, east coast ridge centered over New England. Shouldn't snow in BGM this week one would think. 

May 21st through 28th: Trough in the west, slightly higher heights than normal lakes into northeast, close to normal

May into June:  Is a little cooler than normal but the mean ridge shifts into the southern plains and southwest with lower heights in Hudson Bay. Warms up by week 2 in June to just above normal. 

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week 1 +5

week 2 -1 

week 3 +4

week 4 0

week 5 0

week 6 0

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On 5/1/2018 at 9:47 AM, tombo82685 said:

week 1 +5

week 2 -1 

week 3 +4

week 4 0

week 5 0

week 6 0

This is the first time since the 3/5 weeklies that the Euro had any of the first four weeks as above normal.

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week 1 +2

week 2 +3

week 3 +1 

week 4 0

week 5 0

week 6 +1

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Canadian weeklies:

Temps

Week 1......warm

Week 2......high confidence warm

Week 3......warm

Week 4......near normal

 

Pcpn

Weeks 1 & 2............dry (thanks. :( )

Weeks 3 & 4............near normal

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CFS2 Weeklies, Delmarva Coastal Waters Cold Pool No Longer Affecting Temp Outlooks.

Week 1 Zonal unwinding +PNA.

Week 2 -PNA/+EPO/-NAO E

Week 3 -PNA/-NAO E

Week 4 +PNA/-NAO E/-EPO

Week 5  okay:

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_5.png.f1b15806c68c02ccddb481390d0f7814.png

Week 6  -PNA

 

Temps    Previous Monday Outlook for same week in parentheses.

Week 1...........0F (0F) Taking over for end of week

Week 2...........+5F (+2F)  Over, hot and dry not good

Week 3...........+4F (+2F) Push

Week 4...........0F (+2F) Under (I wish)

Week 5...........+2F (+2F) (TTidbits) well the whole world is warm.....

Week 6............+1F (TTidbits) Under

 

Pcpn

Week 1..........dry

Week 2...........normal

Week 3...........normal

Week 4...........dry

Week 5...........dry (TTidbits)

Week 6...........normal  (TTidbits)

 

The just concluded week averaged +8F for PHL.  There goes the string of perfect EC week 1 forecasts, CFS2 was worse (and of course colder).

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On 4/27/2018 at 8:50 AM, Rainshadow said:

turnip.jpg.ef43230972f18f56baaf497e2cae9add.jpg

Sorry Euro, this is one contest the last place CFS2 has you beat (YTD averages):

Capture.JPG.c12b2db6b1d8b59e4f26f793cbcb76cb.JPG

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week 1 +3

week 2 +5

week 3 +1

week 4 0

week 5 0

week 6 0

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week 1 +3

week 2 +1

week 3 0

week 4 0

week 5 0

week 6 0

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On 5/10/2018 at 9:49 AM, tombo82685 said:

week 1 +3

week 2 +5

week 3 +1

week 4 0

week 5 0

week 6 0

This was Monday the 7th's outlook?

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