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tombo82685

CFS, GGEM, JMA, and Euro Weeklies Thread

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CFS2 Weeklies, Delmarva Coastal Waters Cold Pool Still Affecting Temp Outlooks.

Week 1 Rex Block / -NAO Configuration.  This week CFS2 looks better.

Week 2 Rex Block / -NAO Configuration

Week 3 Rex Block / -NAO Configuration

Week 4  +PNA

Week 5  -NAO/-PNA

Week 6  -NAO/-PNA

 

Temps    Previous Monday Outlook for same week in parentheses.

Week 1..........-8F (-9F) I'll take over, but not by much.

Week 2...........-5F (-2F) Lol, third straight week 2 temp tank.  I will take over thought -2F looked good last week for this week.

Week 3...........-3F (-3F) Over, it is called a Rex Block, not a Rex Planet

Week 4............-2F (+1F) I'll take over

Week 5............+2F (+1F) (TTidbits) under

Week 6............+1F (TTidbits) under

 

Pcpn

Week 1..........wet...good choice

Week 2...........wet

Week 3...........wet

Week 4...........wet

Week 5...........normal (TTidbits)

Week 6...........normal  (TTidbits)

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Tony, random curiosity question...I know CPC does model-produced 6-10/8-14 outlooks over the weekend, is the Delmarva cold pool also responsible for that enhanced area of below average over DE/VA/MD on yesterday's 6-10? I saw that and thought about what you had said, and was curious:



 

Screen Shot 2018-04-16 at 2.38.18 PM.png

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56 minutes ago, JamieO said:

Tony, random curiosity question...I know CPC does model-produced 6-10/8-14 outlooks over the weekend, is the Delmarva cold pool also responsible for that enhanced area of below average over DE/VA/MD on yesterday's 6-10? I saw that and thought about what you had said, and was curious:



 

Screen Shot 2018-04-16 at 2.38.18 PM.png

Jamie,

I don't think it is.  It almost looks like it follows the bias corrected NAEFS outlook.  The raw NAEFS looks like it is more influenced by the cold ssta along the southeast coast.  Especially on the TTidbits site, the CFS2 thermal influence is pretty blatant.  

 

2018041600_054_G6_global_I_SEASON_tm@lg@sd_000.png

2018041612_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png

naefs_bias-corrected_tmean_8-14day-NA.png

cfs-avg_T2maMean_eus_1.png

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12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

week 1 -8

week 2 -2

week 3 -2

week 4 -1

week 5 -1

week 6 -1

I'll take that -2F over the CFS2's -5F in more ways than one for week 2.  Yesterday was a climo thermal wash, so need to amass an accumulative -52.5F departure for rest of this week to get to that -8F,  I think -6F or -7F would have been a better fit.  

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