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tombo82685

CFS, GGEM, JMA, and Euro Weeklies Thread

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week 1 -ao/-enao/neutral pna/-epo/ Abv normal hgts, flow from New mexico

week 2 +pna/-ao/-epo/-enao. Normal hgts, flow from pac nw

week 3 +pna/+epo/+ao/+nao. Normal hgts, flow from pac nw

week 4 +pna/-ao/+epo/+nao. Normal hgts, flow from OR

week 5 -pna/+epo/+ao/+nao. Abv normal hgts, flow from cali

week 6 neutral pna/+epo/+ao/+nao. Abv normal hgts, flow from cali

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week 1 -1

week 2 -3

week 3 -1

week 4 -1

week 5 0

week 6 0

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On 3/22/2018 at 7:53 PM, tombo82685 said:

week 1 -5      -1 Monday

week 2 -6      -3 Monday

week 3 -3      -1  Monday

week 4 -2      -1 Monday

week 5 -1        0 Monday

week 6 0         0 Monday

Just what Tony asked for. 

For Monday, I'll take a push, under, under (timing week 2 or 3, one will be wrong by me), over, way over, way over.

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Euro Monday is starting to catch up to Euro Thursday and CFS2 has been bad past week 1.  Euro's week 3 errors are about the same as CFS2's week 2 errors & ditto for weeks 4 & 3.

Capture.JPG.4febd6af3e8ba29e970aa329f775f08f.JPG

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The ability of the CFS2 and EC Weeklies to correctly sniff the right temperature pattern and stick with it:

This is updated from a previous post and its pretty safe that this current week will be a positive (warm) one for PHL.

Since November started there have been 11 weeks that averaged above normal in PHL (I'm giving this week as an above) and 10 weeks below. 

This is when the Monday EC & CFS2 got the right direction (cold and remained cold, etc.) and stuck with it

Week starting:   (EC, then CFS2)

10/30 (warm): week 1, week 3

11/6 (cold):  week 1, never

11/13 (cold): week 1, week 2

11/20 (cold): week 3, week 1

11/27 (warm): never, never

12/4 (warm): never, week 4

12/11 (cold):  week 3, week 3

12/18 (warm): week 1, week 2

12/25 (way cold): week 4, week 2

1/1 (way cold): week 4, week 4

1/8 (warm): never, never

1/15 (warm): never, never

1/22 (warm): week 4, week 3

1/29 (cold): week 1, never

2/5 (warm): never, never

2/12 (warm): week 2, week 1

2/19 (warm):  week 3, week 2

2/26 (warm): week 4, week 2

3/5  (cold): week 1, week 1

3/12 (cold): week 2, week 1

3/19 (cold): week 2, week 1

 

So in terms of sniffing out the correct direction of temperatures faster the CFS2 won four weeks, the Euro won ten weeks, there were three ties and four total busts til the bitter end. All the four busts were failures to detect warm weeks.   Both the Euro & CFS2 haven't much insight into the cold of this March beyond week 1 or 2.

The ability to sniff and maintain the right temperature pattern beyond week 2, for the Euro 7 of 21 weeklies; the CFS2 5 of 21 weeklies.  

The ability to sniff and maintain the right temperature pattern starting with week 2, for the Euro 10 of 21 weeklies; the CFS2 10 of 21 weeklies.  

The ability to forecast the right temperature pattern for week 1, for the Euro 16 of 21 weeklies (all five errors were on warm weeks); the CFS2 15 of 21 weeklies.  

There have been no normal weeks!!!!!

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week 1 -6

week 2 -2

week 3 -1

week 4 0

week 5 -1

week 6 -1

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Canadian Weeklies

 

Temps

Week 1.....100% confidence below normal

Week 2.....below normal

Week 3.....normal

Week 4.....noirmal

 

Pcpn

Week 1......normal

Week 2......above southeast

Week 3.....normal

Week 4.....normal

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On 3/22/2018 at 7:53 PM, tombo82685 said:

week 1 -5

week 2 -6

week 3 -3

week 4 -2

week 5 -1

week 6 0

Just what Tony asked for. 

That week 1 outlook verified normal (0F) once again proving that this version of the Euro Weeklies can't sniff out a reboot week in a cold pattern.

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CFS2 Weeklies, Delmarva Coastal Waters Cold Pool Affecting Temp Outlooks (Look at image).

Week 1 Rex Block

Week 2 Flow Becomes Zonal. CFS2 Looks Too Cold

Week 3 -PNA dominated. CFSw Looks Too Cold Again'

Week 4  -PNA/-NAO combo

Week 5  -NAO 

Week 6  +PNA

 

Temps    Previous Monday Outlook for same week in parentheses.

Week 1..........-5F (-3F) I'll take under.

Week 2...........-7F (-1F) Lol talk about heading in the wrong direction, I'll take over

Week 3...........-1F (0F) I'll take over, over and over again.

Week 4............-2F (0F) I'll take over

Week 5.............0F (-1F) (TTidbits) I'll take under

Week 6.............+1F (TTidbits) I'll take a push (gutsy :o for week 6)

 

Pcpn

Week 1...........wet

Week 2...........wet

Week 3...........wet

Week 4...........normal

Week 5...........wet (TTidbits)

Week 6...........normal  (TTidbits)

 

:facepalm:

cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_5.png.8a96679c84546ff30e9f1fbbf5e2db54.png

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Tony and I are def pulling for That cold pool to trend stronger 

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week 1 -6

week 2 -4

week 3 0

week 4 -2

week 5 -2

week 6 0

 

MMMMMM keep those negatives a coming. 

Image result for oh yeah gif

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11 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

week 1 -6

week 2 -4

week 3 0

week 4 -2

week 5 -2

week 6 0

 

MMMMMM keep those negatives a coming. 

Image result for oh yeah gif

I see lightning in those glasses.

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week 1 -2

week 2 0

week 3 -1

week 4 -1

week 5 -1

week 6 -1

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25 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

week 1 -2

week 2 0

week 3 -1

week 4 -1

week 5 -1

week 6 -1

I was expecting 7 of the 6 weeks to be below normal. :wacko:

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13 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

I was expecting 7 of the 6 weeks to be below normal. :wacko:

It def has a Smay look to it for the start. With a -nao re-emergence

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

It def has  Smay look to it for the start. With a -nao re-emergence

Hopefully we get this type of blocking say around December 5 of this year 

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On 4/2/2018 at 10:24 AM, Rainshadow said:

Canadian Weeklies

 

Temps

Week 1.....100% confidence below normal

Week 2.....below normal

Week 3.....normal

Week 4.....normal

 

Pcpn

Week 1......normal

Week 2......above southeast

Week 3.....normal

Week 4.....normal

New Canadian Weeklies

 

Temps

Week 1.....below normal

Week 2.....normal

Week 3.....normal, warmest look of three normal weeks

Week 4.....normal

 

Pcpn

Week 1......normal

Week 2......normal

Week 3.....normal

Week 4.....dry

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CFS2 Weeklies, Delmarva Coastal Waters Cold Pool Affecting Temp Outlooks (Look at image).

Week 1 Zonal.  I'll take over.

Week 2 Rex Block / -NAO Configuration, Wasn't there last Monday

Week 3 Lee Of Rockies Ridge / -NAO

Week 4  -PNA/-NAO combo (just like last week for week 4)

Week 5  -NAO 

Week 6  +NAO

 

Temps    Previous Monday Outlook for same week in parentheses.

Week 1..........-7F (-4F) I'll take over.

Week 2...........-9F (-1F) Lol, second straight week 2 total temp tank, it is cold looking, but I will take over. Ensembles kissing OP arse.

Week 3...........-2F (-2F) Push

Week 4............-3F (0F) I'll take over

Week 5.............+1F (+1F) (TTidbits) over

Week 6.............+1F (TTidbits) over

 

Pcpn

Week 1...........dry  (was wet)

Week 2...........wet

Week 3...........normal

Week 4...........wet

Week 5...........wet (TTidbits)

Week 6...........normal  (TTidbits)

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week 1 -1

week 2 -5

week 3 -2

week 4 -3

week 5 -2

week 6 0

SMAY!!!!!

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23 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

week 1 -1

week 2 -5

week 3 -2

week 4 -3

week 5 -2

week 6 0

SMAY!!!!!

 

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Euro weeklies have below normal hgts every week except week 6, SMAY!!!

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12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Euro weeklies have below normal hgts every week except week 6, SMAY!!!

Canadian weaklies have temps below normal weeks 1 thru 3, near normal week 4.  Pcpn above weeks 1 & 2, near normal weeks 3 & 4.

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13 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Euro weeklies have below normal hgts every week except week 6, SMAY!!!

Do you have the weekly departures?

 

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week 1 -5

week 3 -2

week 3 -1

week 4 -2

week 5 -1

week 6 0

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